Last week, on 20th June, Somalia through its ministry of information issued a statement claiming that the Arab Parliament, a nugatory political parley, had warned the Republic of Kenya, the largest economy and military power in East Africa, against squeezing the horn country. The statement, feigned by Somalia’s member of the said parliament, was scoffed. Thinking it was its watershed moment, Mogadishu only helped draw parallels with Nairobi.
On 25th of June 2019, The United States ambassador to Kenya, Kyle McCarter, made a statement affirming Kenya’s and the United States position on the maritime border row. The United States Ambassador said that Washington is working to facilitate a settlement based on Kenya’s final position. Kenya, through its foreign ministry, reaffirmed its position that, it will not cede an inch of the contested waters. This means, the Republic of Kenya will deploy its military to protect and if challenged, conduct warfare against any aggressor or intruder, and of course Somalia doesn’t have an army yet, hence there’s no aggressor. This further means, Nairobi will not consider the outcome of the maritime case at the ICJ in Netherlands, rather will destroy assets of foreign firms given exploration rights in the area by Mogadishu if they attempt to conduct oil and gas exploration.
As its ties with its immediate neighbors and worse its federal states erode, the Government of Somalia is breaking ranks and ties built over time by its stalwarts, a form of self-destruct. The actions of Mogadishu are part of a coordinated effort to push Nairobi to align with Farmaajo’s political ambition and consensus on the maritime row. Worse, the sale of oil and gas exploration licenses is meant to make him and Khaire money to oil their political campaigns. Both will be contesting, with Farmaajo seeking a second term and Khaire seeking to become President.
However, that rift also complicates the United States’ mission, since it counts on Kenya to manage regional threats like the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the East African region. If Kenya escalates its hostile stance, the war on terror in the region will suffer catastrophic consequences including the backsliding of Somalia itself. Farmaajo’s advisors secretly met representatives from a moderate wing of the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen and sought a political settlement. The jihadist promised an end to attacks in Mogadishu and on SNA, a deal that the core of the Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen Shura council refused. However, the moderates managed to expose dozens of terrorist’s cells and their safe-houses in Mogadishu leading to swift busts in Mogadishu. Cache of weapons, tens of improvised explosive devices, and ammunition to be used in a major offensive that’d have led to possible fall of Mogadishu to Al-Shabaab before the month of Ramadhan were recovered and destroyed.
Farmaajo and Khaire have used that particular watershed moment to sway favors their way but Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen is back and has already warned those who negotiated and betrayed its cause. The United States is worried that these thoughtless short term strategies are suicidal. The threat of Islamic States in Somalia is getting significant by day and worse Somali National Army has proved too weak to conduct actual counter terrorism operations. The US does not plan to adjust its posture in response to the diplomatic row between Nairobi and Mogadishu, which will provide immediate reassurance to Nairobi that it’s key backing is assured. Mogadishu should be worried about fissures that’ll expose its progress to stability than tactless geopolitical moves. Kenya’s sphere of influence is beyond the bellicose tact Mogadishu is deploying. The country will re-establish hegemony over Mogadishu, a critical flashpoint in the region, in coming days. The outlook simply makes Khaire and Farmaajo adventure at the Coastal border with Kenya a catastrophe, having accomplished nothing but adding another chapter of bad geopolitical decisions
