David James; Nairobi Kenya
Inside the mind o
f a terrorist is fear and hope to achieve short term goals before convectional counter-terrorism operations eliminate him or disrupt their operation.
As such, terrorists employ surveillance and reconnaissance of possible targets and exploit existing security weaknesses to conduct murder and fear often described in English as terror.
Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visit to Somalia provides that opportunity to conduct an operation that can earn them the two medals of terrorism.
Terror Attacks are planned and executed after months of planning and patching the gaps in the plan. Al-Shabaab has shown that capability throughout.
While HIMINT and OSINT resources may have not disrupted communication and meetings to discuss or plan attacks, Strategic Intelligence has identified improved communication methods in terrorist organization aimed at preempting threats of detection by intelligence surveillance.
Al-Shabaab has mastered this well. Day’s leading to terror attacks, the cells do not communicate nor contribute on social media, or make calls, rather retreat to silence and hiding.
Psychologically, fear and uncertainty often eat into the cell and some get tempted to bail out, some post last messages on social-media, contacting family members is commonplace with suicide mission cells, while those sure of escape may post threats online.
In Somalia OSINT shows the penchant for media by Al-Shabaab is insatiable. Secondly, successful breaching of security checkpoints, capability to infiltrate government security forces ranks, breaching military bases and conducting IED operations remains one of their strengths.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visit to Somalia provides opportunities Al-Shabaab can exploit and achieve the objectives without directly targeting the Turkish president.
The effect multiplication factor is that the attacks were carried out during the Turkish Presidents visit to Somalia.
The type of attack Al-Shabaab has mulled are as follows
- Roadside IEDS
- Gunmen attacking crowds along the roads
- A Small terror-commando unit storming a hotel with VIP’s
- Firing of a mortar or RPG from a house in neighborhood near the event.
- Suicide attack by several Al-Shabaab dressed in Somali army or Turkish commando camouflage
- Suicide attack in crowds on the streets.
However, the capability to conduct these operations maybe disrupted by effective surveillance, policing, and detection of the terror cells early enough to isolate them based on their targets.
