Perhaps there’s no better time to write and read through a Wartime Special Operations (WSO) Brief than when the eyes of the world are on the subject. In East Africa, the geopolitical scales are dramatically tilting courtesy of Mohamed Farmaajo of Somalia. President Mohamed Farmaajo is on the spotlight again. This time, he is not covertly attempting to assassinate his Prime Minister, Hassan Khaire, rather wants to topple Jubbaland President, Ahmed Madobe, a friend of Kenya and partly, Ethiopia. Farmaajo is dangling the Port of Kismayu as a carrot to the Ethiopians and his Qatari backers while the Turks are seeking geopolitical hegemony in the Horn to pursue expansion of their trade and military products, for a cost.
Events Summary
- On 5th February 2020, The United States Embassy in Somalia issued a statement calling for reconciliation between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States (FMS). The statement was largely factored by subversive events that were unfolding in Gedo and Galmudug Prefectures with FGS being wrong in its approach.
- The Statement was issued 12hours after the arrival of a Turkish Trained Somali National Army troops Battalion (Combat Unit of 500 to 800 troops) to Gedo to oust Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) who controlled the borders town of Beled Hawo, Luuq, and Doloow. Initial assessments based on an All-Source Intelligence Brief, confirms approximately 600-700 Troops were deployed via air and road to the critical border area.
- Despite their training, the Somali National Army (SNA) is known for lackluster and salient inability to stop the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM). Armed with weaponry and equipment largely donated to them by Turkey, this SNA Battalion has simply brought the terror group new and much needed military hardware. SNA has brought dozens of pick-up trucks mounted with machine guns, new RPG launchers, plenty of Chinese AK-52 riffles, machine guns, and Turkish hand held artillery, just exactly what the terror group would love to have and replenish its stockpile in Middle Juba which it controls freely.
Farmaajo’s Jubbaland War Plan: Attack Al-Shabaab in Middle Jubba Through a Coordinated Pincer Movement & AFRICOM Bombardment.
In July 2019, Strategic Intelligence assessed the geopolitical situation in the East African region and found out evidence of a new Anti-Kenya outfit (Partly Ethiopian and largely Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia). Insertion of foreign troops, specifically Eritreans, into SNA-Danaab units has been ongoing since then in Abudwaq, Hiirale, and Dhusamareb. To capture Jubbaland State from President Ahmed Madobe, the near Brigade Size group will deploy from 2 points (Mogadishu towards Kismayu to Ras-Kamboni near the Kenyan Border, and from Bardheere across whole of Upper-Jubba Prefecture while attacking Al-Shabaab Terror group and Jubbaland Forces in Buale, Saakow, Salagle towards Jiliib. Somali Intelligence NISA, in a intelligence report accessed by S.I plans to manipulate US-AFRICOM to get air-support against Al-Shabaab and occasional provision of wrong coordinates to get JSF forces bombed. The rout will allow Mogadishu to announce Buale as the headquarters of Jubbaland denying President Madobe political legitimacy and subsequently order Madobe’s rival to conduct Jubbaland elections in Buale to unseat Madobe. This will force Madobe to join or collaborate with remnants of Al-Shabaab, a perfect set up plan whose outcomes will make Madobe a legit target for killing.
Persecution of Marehans and Somali Bantus in Gedo (Political Intelligence Operations akin to Human Rights Violations)
OSINT & HUMINT Reports confirm that President Farmaajo has been pressuring his clansmen and Pro-Madobe leaders in Gedo to renounce Madobe, this has been futile. Gedo people view Mohamed Farmaajo as a puppet and enemy, a boy who was sipping coffee in the United States while they were fighting the Ogaden war. To pursue his agenda, Farmaajo asked Ethiopia for help in Gedo. In November 2019, Ethiopian forces detained leaders of Beled Hawo, Luuq, and Dolow and attempted to coerce them to denounce the Madobe Administration.
Ethiopia further provided Farmaajo help by setting up Jubaland security minister Janan Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur leading to his arrest. The minister is socio-politically popular in Gedo, and has a strong influence network in the region making him a threat to Farmaajo’s executive objectives. Janan escaped prison on January 31st, fled to Kismayu then went to Gedo. Farmaajo ordered deployment of troops to towns Janan loyalists are based and ouster JSF troops in the area. FGS went ahead to accuse Kenya of facilitating Janan and worse requested Amnesty International and INTERPOL to request Nairobi to arrest Janan, another attempt to set up Kenya.
Kill the Dissenters and Topple Madobe by All Means.
According to officials of the Somali National Intelligence (NISA) and Farmaajo advisors, the President is ready to kill members of his clan in Beled Hawo, Doloow, and Luuq, besides Badhere, who have refused to support him in hi strategies to weaken Jubbaland and other Federal Member States (FMS). These activities signal possible genocide which he is accused of orchestrating in Johwar. The escalation of tensions is not only worrying but puts long-term allies like Ethiopia and Kenya against each other. This has led to United States to warn of instability if cohesion and working together is not achieved as soon possible. Crisis Group reports warn of an impending social-political upheaval in Somalia as conflicts between FGS and FMS escalate to the advantage of terrorists.
