Event
May 13, 2015, around noon: Major General Godefroid Niyombare summons a press conference in Burundi relieves the President, Pierre Nkurunziza off his duties as president while he is away on a meeting concerning the crisis in Burundi.
May 15, 2015, the Major General Godefroid Niyombare surrenders to the government admitting to a failed Coup d’état. President Pierre Nkurunziza returns to Burundi and resumes his tenure as president.
Possible Consequences triggered by the failed coup
In the event of a coup be it successful or otherwise two or more sides emerge.
- Ethnic Strains
In Burundi’s case the two sides are drawn across ethnic differences especially by the two dominant ethnic groups; Hutu and Tutsi. Hutus are the majority making up 85% of the population but the minorities who are the Tutsi dominate the military and the government. There has emerged a youth Hutu militia group; Imbonerakure which could be used as a weapon against the Tutsis.
A failed coup more often than not usually revives or creates a lot ethnic tensions especially in countries with historical ethnic animosity. Arises especially if the leaders ethnically place the hostile takeover, the populace see people from other tribes as foes.
- Refugee Outflows
Just like Burundi any conflict the players or kind not withstanding creates fear among the general populace prompting them to fight or flee to keep safe. With reference to Burundi, refugees have been reported to flee to the neighboring countries; Tanzania, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo. Most of those that flee are mostly women and children in search of food, medicine and other basic necessities as men tend to remain to fight.
See also: Burundi Coup Flops, President Pierre Nkurunziza Returns To Bujumbura
- Regional Proxy Wars
While it does not always happen the instability of one country can spiral a series of wars among the neighbors especially if tribes spill over the two countries. If the oppressed tribe is found across two countries the kinsmen from the neighboring country could join in the war to help out. Instinctively, the two tribes in Burundi are so dominant in Rwanda and in the event a war arose Rwanda would feel obliged to send troops into Burundi to calm which would appear like an infringement against Burundi’s sovereignty.
- Violation of Human Rights and Media Freedom
Coups result to war which has casualties. More often than not the measures used to end war are ruthless, crude and violate human rights. Executions and wrongful imprisonments characterized warzones. Press freedom is used as a contingency plan to curb any future hostile takeovers through the press. The content in the press becomes government controlled as a way of controlling what goes out to the public.
- Economic strife and low standards of living
Countries will tend to have an economic downfall as most of the available resources are channeled to war and or ending conflict and at the same time the productive generation is entangled in the conflicts leaving to workforce to bolster the economy. The country could face embargoes and bans from the international community. Burundi, being among the poorest countries in the world the economic slump is and deteriorating quality of life is likely to be disastrous.
Failed Coup d’état trigger a lot of negative impact that trickle down the chain and affect not only the culprit country but the region and countries around it.
