Event Summary
- Tuesday 4, August 2015, a top Taliban official announces his resignation amid a growing leadership struggle in the Afghan insurgent movement.
- This comes barely a week after the news of the death of the outfit leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.
- The infighting could split the Taliban militant movement and further threaten tentative peace talks with Kabul government to end 13 years of war.
- Omar’s longtime deputy, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour takes over as the new leader of the militant movement.
- Imminent rift among many senior figures, angry about the implication that Mansour covered Omar’s death for over two years.
Analysis
The infighting is critical and could cause a major split of the Taliban movement. The imminent rift between the outfit top brass could further complicate and threaten tentative peace talks with Kabul government.
The peace talks supposed to bring to close 13 years of war that began with U.S. led campaigns after attacks on United States in September 11, 2001 terrorist attack.
Since Mansour’s appointment was announced by the Taliban leadership council based in Quetta, Pakistan, it has been denounced by several top members of the group, including Omar’s brother, who has called for an assembly to choose the leader.
On Tuesday, Taliban official Syed Mohammad Tayab Agha announced that he was stepping down as director of the Political Office in the Qatari capital Doha.
The office was originally set up to enable the Taliban to negotiate in for any peace process.
Forecast
Taliban faces imminent rift and dire repercussions. Though it remains difficult to draw conclusions and to assess the serious threat Mansour faces, the tension is building up within the movement points at least the collapse or suspension of the peace process while he tries to make effort to consolidate his position.
Relations between Mullah Mansour and Tayyab Agha had never been friendly even when Mullah Omar was alive.
Mansour faces a challenge to hold the movement together with hardline commanders pressing for an end to talks and the continuation of fighting that has been increasingly successful in recent months.
Several commanders are known to have stopped fighting until the situation is clarified and there have been calls for a new council to be summoned to decide the leadership issue.
