Situation Summary
- On Tuesday 4th August 2015, local leader of Burundi’s ruling party was attacked and killed in the capital Bujumbura.
- Come Harerimana, president of the CNDD FDD chapter in Kanyosha district, was heading to his office on the back of a motor bike when a crowd threw stones at him. He was pulled from the motorcycle and shot.
- In three days, Burundi has experienced three high-profile attacks.
- On Sunday 2nd August, Nkurunziza’s former security Chief General Adolphe Nshimirimana was ambushed and killed by gunmen.
- On Monday 3rd August, a leading human rights activist, Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, was seriously wounded in a gun attack near his home.
Analysis
The civil crisis in Burundi could be a precursor to the worst ethnic crisis ever in Africa’s history unless it is tamed.
More worrying is the fact that the ongoing violence in Burundi could split the country down ethnic lines and lead to another civil war, an alarming prospect for a region still scarred by the 1994 genocide in neighboring Rwanda where 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutus were slaughtered. Similar to neighboring Rwanda, Burundi has an ethnic make-up.
The civil strife in Burundi accrued to President Pierre Nkurunziza’s announcing his third term in presidency mid-April, 2015. The strife now happens to be edged towards an ugly twist.
Some of the army generals behind an attempted coup that followed Nkurunziza’s decision have vowed to lead a rebellion to oust Nkurunziza, who won the July 21 presidential poll after the opposition boycotted the elections.
Forecast
Intelligence sources fear the violence could split the Burundi down ethnic lines and lead to a civil war, an alarming prospect for a region still scared by the 1994 genocide in neighboring Rwanda where 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutus were slaughtered.
The last 12-year civil war roughed up the military, which at the time was led by the ethnic Tutsi minority, against rebel factions of the majority Hutus, the biggest of which was led by Pierre Nkurunziza.
The international community led by the East African Community has however opened intervention channels to establish a balance that will prevent the Burundi from plunging into a violent civil war in the very volatile region.
