Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of May 1st – May 31st, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Terrorism remains a significant challenge for Somalia and sporadically targets Kenya, primarily due to the latter’s contribution of peacekeeping troops in Somalia. In the month under review, 44 terror events were recorded, showcasing the persistent threat posed by groups such as Al-Shabaab. The types of attacks employed by these terror groups included ambushes, IED explosions, direct assaults on military bases, and suicide bombings. The commonly used weapons in these attacks were RPGs, PKM, AK-47 rifles, and IEDs, which reflect the groups’ reliance on both conventional and improvised weapons to execute their operations.

In Somalia, areas such as Mogadishu, Bay Region, Lower Shabelle, and Galgaduud experienced repeat attacks, highlighting the group’s focus on both urban centers and rural military outposts. For instance, several attacks targeted Ethiopian military bases in the Bay Region, indicating a strategic focus on foreign military presence. In Mogadishu alone, multiple incidents were reported, including a significant suicide bombing in Dharkeynley district that resulted in numerous casualties.

In Kenya, the northeastern regions, particularly Garissa and Mandera, witnessed sporadic attacks targeting Kenyan security forces. Al-Shabaab’s ambushes and attacks on military convoys in these areas underscore the spillover of terrorism from Somalia into Kenya, driven by Kenya’s active role in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and its direct involvement in counter-terrorism operations.

To counter these persistent threats, a comprehensive approach is essential. This includes enhanced intelligence-sharing between local and international agencies to preempt attacks and dismantle terror networks. Strengthening border security to prevent cross-border infiltration by militants is also crucial. Furthermore, community engagement initiatives to gain local support and gather actionable intelligence can significantly aid counter-terrorism efforts.

Internationally, continued financial sanctions and targeting of Al-Shabaab’s financial networks, as evidenced by recent actions by the U.S. Department of Treasury, are critical in disrupting the group’s funding sources. Locally, bolstering the capabilities of Somali security forces through training and equipment will improve their ability to respond to and mitigate attacks. Additionally, addressing underlying socio-economic issues that foster terrorism, such as poverty and lack of education, can help reduce the recruitment base for terrorist groups.

While terrorism remains a persistent threat in Somalia and a sporadic but serious concern in Kenya, a multifaceted and coordinated response is essential to thwart future attacks. By addressing the root causes of extremism, improving security measures, and fostering regional and international collaboration, it is possible to mitigate the impact of terrorism and enhance stability in the region. A multifaceted and coordinated approach, combining military, economic, and social strategies, is necessary to effectively combat the enduring threat of terrorism in Somalia and its impact on neighboring countries like Kenya.

Terrorism Events: May 1^st – May 31^st

1. May 30, 2024: Al-Shabaab Fighters Killed and Wounded Several Ethiopian Soldiers in Dinsoor, Bay Region, Somalia in repeat attacks.
2. May 29, 2024: An explosion in Mogadishu’s Dayniile district has targeted a government vehicle, resulting in several civilian and military casualties.
3. May 28, 2024: In a direct attack, Al-Shabaab mujahideen forces attacked the camp of the Ethiopian army in Hudur district of Bakool province. Injuries reported.
4. May 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched overnight attack on Ethiopian military base in Halgan town, Hiran Region-Casualties.
5. May 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched heavy attacks on bases of Somali government troops, who are located in Marka district Lower Shabelle.
6. May 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab also attacked the military base of the Ridada troops in Jazira area on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
7. May 26, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Targeted a Somalian Military Base with an IED, Injuring Several, in Baidoa City, Southwestern, Somalia.
8. May 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Violently Clashed with Somalian Armed Forces, Killing Six Soldiers & Injuring 3, in the Marai Sole Area, on the Outskirts of Masgwai, Galgaduud State, Somalia.
9. May 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Ambushed Somalian Armed Forces, Killing Two, near Waninli Area, in Aildir City, Galgaduud, Somalia.
10. May 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Kenyan Forces Vehicle, Killing and Injuring the occupants besides destroying the Vehicle, in Ijara and Singaelo Areas, Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
11. May 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters from the Islamic province of Bay, launched a direct attack on a military base of the SNA in El-Mashrouq in the Qansaxdhere district.
12. May 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab Ambushed Somalian Armed Forces, killing at least One and Seizing His Weapons, in Janale, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
13. May 24, 2024:Al-Shabaab Amsbuhed a Kenyan Armed Forces Convoy, Killing and Injuring Those on Board, in Ramu District, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
14. May 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Ambushed Somalian Armed Forces, killing 2 and Injuring 1, in Burhakba and Odinle localities, in Bay State, Somalia.
15. May 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched a probing attack against non-ATMIS Ethiopian forces in Diinsoor town and Awdinle, Bay region.
16. May 23, 2024: In Mogadishu’s Al-Naciim neighborhood of Dharkeynley district, a suicide bomber targeted security personnel gathering, killing at least six government soldiers and several civilians.
17. May 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Conducted Two Ambush Raids on Military Bases, killing amd Wounding Several, in Dinsoor City and Arbao District, Bay and Banadir, Somalia.
18. May 22, 2024: Al-Shabab militants have shot and killed Ibrahim Abdi Abdirahman, a member of the Southwest Regional State Parliament, in Mogadishu’s Siliga neighborhood in Wadajir District.
19. May 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Targeted a Somalian Military Base with an IED, Injuring Four, in Baidoa City, Southwestern Somalia.
20. May 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Armed Assault on Four ATMIS-Ugandan Military Bases in Barawe and Janale, Buralo and Lantaboro Areas, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
21. May 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Conducted a Raid on a SNA Military Checkpoint, Killing Two and Seizing One Kalashnikov, in Yaqberweni, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.

    

22. May 21, 2024: Al-Shabaab carried a special operation targeting SNA troops in the general vicinity of Wadajir district of Mogadishu.
23. May 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces operating at the Kenya-Somalia border prefectures attacked a joint base of SNA and ATMIS in the outskirts of Kambooni area.
24. May 19, General Hassan Jaamxi was among the injured and 4 other soldiers who were killed when their convoy hit a landmine in Mogadishu’s Albiri area.
25. May 19, 2024: A military convoy headed to Bali-Doogle was targeted by a heavy attack. Al-Shabaab fighters ambush raid targeted the convoy taking the supplies to the US military base in Bali-Doogle on the road that connects Afgooye and Wallan-weyn districts.
26. May 18, 2024: An Al-Shabaab reported explosion in Mogadishu’s Dayniile district killed two children and three other civilians.
27. May 18, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen army launched an organized direct attack on the base of the ATMIS operated by the Ugandan troops in the Danow area of ​​Lower Shabelle.
28. May 17, 2024: An Al-Shabaab explosion reported in Mogadishu’s Yaaqshiid district targeting security troops. Unknown number of security officers and civilian casualties reported.
29. May 17, 2024: The forces of the Mujahideen Artillery Group operating in the Islamic province of Bakool, reportedly launched a heavy artillery attack on the airport in Wajid district, targeting a plane carrying supplies to the Somali government troops.
30. May 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters operating in the Islamic province of Bay launched a planned attack on a military base of the ATMIS in Qansaxdhere district of Bay province.
31. May 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab mujahideen forces executed a targeted assault on SNA troops stationed at the Jaalle Siyad College in Mogadishu. No casualty report has been released.
32. May 15, 2024: In Bay, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces engaged in a fierce battle at the Ethiopian army base in Dinsoor district.
33. May 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab insurgents ambushed Ridda troops in the Arbacow area near the water wells on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
34. May 14, 2024: In Mogadishu’s Kaaraan district, unidentified gunmen fatally shot police traffic officer Muktar Mohammed Daqare.
35. May 13, 2024: An IED blast in the Bakiin neighborhood of Baidoa town resulted in the death of one Somali government soldier and injuries to three others.
36. May 12, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for launching a grenade attack targeting the residence of Kurow Amhar, a member of the Darwish army in Baidoa, the regional administration capital of South West State.
37. May 12, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a second grenade attack, targeting the residence of Ilyas Ali Noor, the former Minister of Information of the Southwest administration and current director of the Tubsan Agency.
38. May 10, 2024: Al Shabaab militants attacked a border patrol unit in Garissa, firing RPGs, PKM, and AK47 rifles, resulting in the death of an officer.
39. May 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants reportedly seized control of Daarunimca in the Middle Shabelle region after engaging in brief combat with Somali troops.
40. May 5, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched an attack on the ATMIS-Ethiopian military base in Dinsor district, Bay region.
41. May 5, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants attacked a UPDF military base in Qoryoley district, Lower Shabelle region, resulting in casualties.
42. May 4, 2024: Mortar shells were fired in Mogadishu, with at least three explosions reported near Madxafka qaranka in the city.
43. May 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters claimed responsibility for the assassination of a senior police officer near School Polizio in Mogadishu’s heavily guarded Xamar Jajab district.
44. May 2, 2024: An IED explosion targeted an electric company in the Ceelasha Biyaha area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, causing visible plumes of smoke.

Analysis, Observations & Insights

In May 2024, terrorism continued to pose a significant challenge in Somalia, with Al-Shabaab militants carrying out a series of attacks that underscored the group’s ongoing threat. During this period, there were 44 recorded terror events, involving various types of attacks such as ambushes, IED explosions, targeted assassinations, and direct assaults on military bases. The weapons commonly used included IEDs, RPGs, PKM, AK47 rifles, and heavy artillery, reflecting the group’s access to substantial arsenals. These attacks were concentrated in regions such as Mogadishu, Bay, Lower Shabelle, Galgaduud, and Northeastern Kenya, highlighting the group’s operational reach and capability to target both urban and rural areas.

The recorded events indicate a persistent strategy by Al-Shabaab to undermine security forces and disrupt stability in both Somalia and Kenya. Notably, several attacks targeted Ethiopian and Somali military bases, government vehicles, and security personnel. In Kenya, Al-Shabaab’s ambushes on Kenyan forces in Garissa and Mandera regions exemplify the group’s intent to retaliate against Kenya’s involvement in peacekeeping operations in Somalia. This cross-border violence underscores the interconnected nature of the security threats in the region.

Al-Shabaab’s tactics also include psychological warfare and attempts to gain local support. The group’s provision of essential services, such as building and equipping a hospital in Kunyobarrow, Lower Shabelle, aims to radicalize communities by offering aid while spreading extremist ideology. This dual approach of violence and social services helps the group maintain influence and control over certain areas, complicating counterterrorism efforts.

Despite the challenges, Somali and allied forces have made strides in counterterrorism operations. Successful offensives against Al-Shabaab bases, seizure of resources intended for the militants, and elimination of illegal checkpoints demonstrate a proactive stance by the government and its partners. Additionally, targeted airstrikes and ground operations have disrupted Al-Shabaab’s activities, showcasing the ongoing commitment to restoring security and stability.

However, the impending withdrawal of African Union-United Nations peacekeepers by the end of 2024 raises concerns about Somalia’s readiness to handle its security independently. The transition necessitates robust support in training, funding, and equipping local forces to ensure they can effectively combat Al-Shabaab. Without continued international assistance, there is a risk of a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit to regain control and intensify its insurgency.

In conclusion, while significant progress has been made in countering Al-Shabaab, the group’s resilience and adaptability continue to pose a serious threat. The comprehensive approach involving military operations, community engagement, and international cooperation is crucial to thwart future attacks and prevent Al-Shabaab from resurging. The potential withdrawal of peacekeeping forces underscores the need for sustainable and robust counterterrorism strategies to ensure long-term security in Somalia and the broader region.