Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in May 2024

May 2024 saw significant developments in the fight against Islamic State (IS)-affiliated terrorist groups in East and Central Africa, particularly in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Tanzania. These regions witnessed a surge in terrorist activities, with the Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) and the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) intensifying their operations.

Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province experienced a notable increase in ISM attacks, while ISCAP continued its aggressive campaign in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces of the DRC. Tanzania, though not directly attacked, remained vigilant due to the potential security vacuum created by the withdrawal of Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces from Mozambique. This report provides a detailed analysis of the security situation, strategic shifts, and international responses in these regions.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 29^th May- ISM militants mounted an ambush on military personnel between Chinda and Oasse along the N380 in Mocimboa da Praia (MDP).
• 29^th May– Militants ambushed a Rwandan Military Patrol, between Mbau and Limala in MDP.
• 28^th May– ISM conducted an attack in Naquero village in MDP; this is the first recorded attack in the village.
• 27^th May- ISM militants attacked Nova Vida village along the N380 in Macomia district.
• 14^th May- ISM terrorist attacked and razed a Mozambican Army barracks in Nanduli village.
• 13^th May- one Christian was captured and executed near Meloco village.
• 12^th May- ISM attacked and burned down Christian homes in Missufine, Cajerene and Sunate villages in Ancuabe district.
• 11^th May- ISM terrorists were sighted leaving Macomia after attacking several locations.
• 10^th May- ISM mounted a major attack in which they overran Macomia Sede. At least 10 people were killed and over 15 truck carrying food and pharmaceuticals were seized.
• 06^thMay- Civilians in Siripa area of Chiure district were attacked by ISM fighters several were injured.
• 03^rd May- ISM fighters attacked, burned homes and beheaded several Christians in Nacoja village, Mazeze area in Ciure district.
• 03^rd may- A military chopper was downed in Mucojo, Macomia district.

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

• 30^TH May- ISCAP militants attacked Congolese Army forces along RN4 between Erengeti and Kenama in North Kivu.
• 28^th May- Militants clashed with a Congolese Armed Forces foot patrol, in Gombeniama, Ituri Province.
• 27^th May- militants led an armed assault on civilians in Kokola, North Kivu.
• 26^th May- Congolese soldiers travelling on a motorcycle as well as civilians were attacked by insurgents near Idohu in Ituri.
• 26^th May- several civilians were killed or injured in ISCAP armed assault in Kubukubu area in North Kivu.
• 25^th May- Several civilians were injured following an attack in Mapendo area of North Kivu
• 25^th May- militants led an armed assault on civilians In Upende and Bithuri, North-Kivu Province, Congo
• 25^th May- two Christians were captured and beheaded near Kokola, North KIVU.
• 24^th May- ISCAP and Congolese military foot patrol clashed near Kokola in North Kivu.
• 24^th May- militants led an armed assault on civilians in Mayi-Moya area in North Kivu
• 24^TH May- militants led an armed assault on civilians in Kokola area in North Kivu
• 22^nd May- ISCAP militants clashed with Congolese Army Forces in Thunyungu, North-Kivu.
• 21^st May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians on RN4 in Ofaye Otto Maber in Ituri province.
• 15^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Mandumbi area in North Kivu.
• 13^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Bongolo village in Ituri
• 14^th May- ISCAP insurgents clashed with Congolese military foot patrol in Manfdumbi area in North Kivu.
• 14^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians on RN4 in Ndimo area in Ituri
• 14^th May- ISCAP terrorists clashed with Ugandan troops on RN4 in Idohu, Ituri.
• 13^th May- an ISCAP armed assault left at least people 18 dead in Kakumbukumbu and Nakota Villages, Babila-Babombi District, Mambasa Territory in Ituri Province
• 10^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians on RN4 near Erengeti, Ituri
• 09^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians on RN4 near Ndalya, Ituri.
• 08^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Makelido, North Kivu.
• 08^th May- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Mandumb, North Kivu, this was the third attack that the group had claimed in the region.
• 07^th May- Joint UPDF and Congolese troops were ambushed by ISCAP militants in Mandumbi, North Kivu.
• 01^st May- ISCAP militants captured and executed three Christians in Musuku, North Kivu Province.

ANALYSIS, INSIGHTS AND CONCLUSION

MOZAMBIQUE

The May 10^th attack that involved over 100 ISM fighters is a clear indicator in the intelligence gaps and breakdown among the troops fighting the insurgency in CD. Intelligence indicates that the attack was not an opportunity attack presented by the departure of the SAMIM troop but rather a well-planned and thought out attack that depicted strategic planning and coordination that led to the group making away with the greatest haul of food and medicine in a very long time. In May, ISM continues to attack in several districts which continues to give insight into the group’s new leadership and renewed energy with intelligence indicating new manpower and resources. The attacks in May, have without a doubt put resources; food, weapons, medicine and high-profile hostages in the hands of the group. The attacks that happened in the backdrop of the SAMIM withdrawal are a clear indication that the group is preparing to reclaim territories that had been liberated by the allied troops.

To address the escalating security challenges in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, both the European Union (EU) and South Africa announced extensions and adaptations to their military missions. These developments mark significant shifts in their approaches towards combating insurgency and terrorism in the region, particularly targeting the Islamic State Mozambique (ISM).

The EU Council has prolonged the mandate of the EU Training Mission in Mozambique until 2026, allocating over €14 million for this period and greenlit a transformation of this mission into the EU Military Assistance Mission Mozambique (EUMAM Mozambique), effective September 1, 2024. The focus will be on supporting the units of the Mozambican armed forces, especially the Quick Reaction Force (QRF), in their efforts to counter terrorism and restore security. This evolution underscores a strategic shift from a mere training model to a comprehensive assistance approach, combining advising, mentoring, and specialized training.

The recent deployment of over 2,000 Rwandan troops to replace the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) in Cabo Delgado marks a significant shift in the region’s security landscape. This move comes as SAMIM, which has been combating the Islamist insurgency since 2021, withdraws due to financial constraints and shifting priorities among its member states. The deployment of Rwandan troops to Cabo Delgado is a strategic move aimed at maintaining the momentum in the fight against insurgents. It offers immediate security benefits and the potential for capacity building within Mozambique’s forces.

TANZANIA

The scheduled withdrawal of SADC forces from Mozambique is expected to increase security risks for Tanzania by easing pressure on the ISM terrorist group. Tanzania has played a significant role in stabilizing the situation in Mozambique’s Nangade district and has reopened multiple border crossing points. Despite successes, Tanzania faces ongoing challenges, including local poverty and marginalization, particularly in its southern regions. The country’s strategy has shifted from a defensive approach to active involvement in regional security, reflecting a complex set of motives including historical ties and current security needs. As SADC troops depart, Tanzania will likely continue its current response strategy, maintaining a multi-agency presence and bilateral arrangements in Mozambique.

Tanzania’s defense budget for the 2024/25 financial year is set at 3.3 billion shillings, reflecting a continued commitment to modernizing its armed forces. This modernization effort will focus on acquiring cutting-edge equipment and integrating advanced technology, aimed at enhancing the operational capabilities and readiness of the Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF). The budget increase will enable the TPDF to address both external and internal security threats more effectively, particularly given the heightened risks following the withdrawal of SADC forces from Mozambique.

The acquisition of modern equipment and technology will bolster Tanzania’s military strength, allowing for more effective surveillance, intelligence gathering, and rapid response to security threats. Additionally, with advanced technology, Tanzania can better monitor and secure its 800-kilometer border with Mozambique, reducing the risk of cross-border insurgency activities by groups like ISM.

D.R. CONGO

In May 2024, ISCAP continued its aggressive activities in DRC particularly in the eastern provinces of North Kivu and Ituri. This period has been marked by several notable developments. The month saw an escalation in ISCAP attacks, characterized by brutal assaults on villages, leading to significant civilian casualties. The ISCAP’s strategy of using fear and violence to control local populations has continued unabated, contributing to the deteriorating security situation

Joint operations by the Congolese Army and the Ugandan army (UPDF), under the Shujaa campaign, successfully captured Anywari Al Iraq, a key ISCAP figure and expert in improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Al Iraq, originally from the Busia district in Eastern Uganda, was apprehended during a combat patrol by the FARDC. This capture is significant as it highlights the effectiveness of the ongoing joint military operations in dismantling ISCAP leadership.

Despite successes, the ISCAP remains a persistent threat in the region. Civil society in Mangina, a rural commune in North Kivu, has called for the establishment of a permanent UPDF camp to counteract the ISCAP’s activities. This request follows a series of attacks in Mangina, including a deadly incident on April 28, 2024, where ISCAP rebels killed three civilians and kidnapped others. Local leaders believe that only sustained and serious military operations can restore confidence among the populace​

In May 2024 has been a crucial month for anti-ISCAP operations in the DRC. The capture of key ISCAP operatives, continued violence, and the push for enhanced military presence underscore the ongoing challenges and efforts to stabilize the region. The cooperation between the FARDC and UPDF remains pivotal in curbing the influence of ISCAP and protecting local communities from further insurgent activities.

CONCLUSION

In Mozambique, the May 10 attack in Macomia Sede, where over 100 ISM militants overran the area, killing at least ten people and seizing over 15 trucks carrying food and pharmaceuticals. This attack highlighted significant intelligence gaps and the breakdown among the troops fighting the insurgency. It was not merely an opportunistic strike but a well-coordinated assault, demonstrating ISM’s strategic planning capabilities.

The security landscape in East and Central Africa is marked by a resurgence of IS-affiliated groups exploiting strategic opportunities and gaps in military presence. ISM’s activities in Mozambique demonstrate an increased level of coordination and resource acquisition, while ISCAP’s relentless campaign in the DRC highlights the ongoing struggle against insurgent forces.

The international and regional responses, particularly from the EU and Rwanda, emphasize a commitment to counter-terrorism efforts, though significant challenges remain. The continued efforts and strategic shifts by both regional and international actors are essential in addressing the evolving terrorist threats and restoring stability in the affected regions.