Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists For November 2023

INSIDE:

Mozambique: The month saw a surge in Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) activities, targeting villages and Christian populations in Cabo Delgado. The government responded by substantially increasing the defense budget for 2024 and receiving support from international entities like the European Union and the African Union. Insurgents’ movements in the Messalo River area posed ongoing challenges, highlighting vulnerabilities in certain districts.

Somalia: IS-Somalia exhibited a decline in attacks compared to previous years, attributed partly to disruptions within their leadership following the killing of their leader earlier in the year. Despite this, their revenue generation through shadow taxation and extortion networks in Mogadishu and Bosaso remained a concern.

Democratic Republic of Congo: ISCAP militants carried out multiple attacks targeting civilians, security patrols, and religious groups across various regions. The Ituri military court delivered significant verdicts sentencing militants and soldiers for war crimes, facilitated by MONUSCO’s justice support section.

Incident Report:

MOZAMBIQUE

• 10^th Nov- Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants conducted an armed assault. They ambushed and razed buildings, in Novo Cabo Delgado in Macomia, Cabo Delgado
• 11^th Nov- ISM claimed that they had killed a Christian with a machine gun near Litandacua in the Macomia.
• 12^th Nov- suspected ISM militants launched an armed assault on Inguri Village, Muidumbe Region
• 16^th Nov- ISM militants assassinated a Christian, in Litandacua Village, Muidumbe Region
• 16^th Nov- ISM militants conducted an armed assault on the Christian Village of Mapate, Muidumbe District. The militants are said to have clashed with a local militia and razed at least 30 houses in the village.
• 20^th Nov- the Lesotho contingent destroyed an unexploded explosive found in a farm in Samora Machel village in Nangade district.
• 22^nd Nov- ISM militants orchestrated an armed assault and arson on the Christian village of Natandola, Mocimboa da Praia. Insurgents vandalized, burned houses & confiscated bicycles.
• 24^th Nov- ISM militants conducted an armed assault in Puloares in Metuge in Cabo Delgado.
• 28^th Nov- ISM terrorists set off an IED targeting a Rwandan Military Vehicle, on the Road between Mbau & Chinda in MDP.

The Democratic Republic of Congo

• 30^th Nov-At least 8 people killed by ISCAP militants in 3 days in Bangole
• 25^th Nov- ISCAP militants conducted an armed assault on Kombo I Village near Watalinga, North Kivu.
• 24^th Nov- 9 civilians were killed and several houses were set on fire during a new attack attributed to ISCAP in Maobo and Makodu villages located in the Batangi-Mbau grouping in Beni
• 12^TH Nov- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians and Ugandan Forces barracks near Watalinga, North Kivu. At least 40 people were killed in the attack.
• 12^th N0v- 4 people were killed in an incursion by ISCAP fighters in Manate in Irumu territory.
• 08^th Nov- 6 people were killed by ISCAP fighters in the village of Mambelenga, on the Komanda-Luna axis.
• 06^th Nov- ISCAP militants led an armed assault on civilians in Mambelenga, Ituri Province.
• 5^th Nov- ISCAP militants ambushed a vehicle belonging to a Christian on the Mbau-Kamango Road, Beni Region.
• 3^rd Nov- ISCAP militants ambushed a group of Christians in Kikingi, North Kivu
• 2^nd Nov- ISCAP militants clashed with a Congolese security patrol on the road from Kamungu to Beni in Ituri province.

SOMALIA

• 18^th Nov- Puntland security forces arrested Four Islamic State terrorists in the Cal Miskaad Mountains in the Bari region.
• 19^th Nov– Puntland Security Forces thwarted a suspected Islamic State Somalia IED attack in Bosaso, Bari Region.

ANALYSIS

Mozambique:

Increase of Defense budget for 2024

Mozambique announced plans to allocate 67.9 billion meticais towards defense and security in 2024, marking a 42% increase from the previous year’s budget. The defense budget will rise to over 20.1 billion meticais (3.7% of GDP) from 13.3 billion meticais in the preceding year. The government aims to secure additional resources to strengthen Defense and Security Forces in the Northern Operational Theater to ensure economic resumption and unhindered movement of people and goods.

The Mozambican government’s substantial increase in defense and security spending for 2024, underscores the escalating concerns surrounding ongoing terrorist threats in the Cabo Delgado region. This surge in funding highlights the prioritization of bolstering security measures to combat complex issues like terrorism, money laundering, resource exploitation, and pressing security challenges.

European Union Training Mission in Mozambique (EUTM-MOZ) Delivers Vehicles

EUTM-MOZ announced the delivery of 22 all-terrain vehicles to the Mozambican Armed Forces (FADM) as part of the provision of non-lethal equipment. These vehicles were provided under the European Peace Facility (EPF) mechanism. The assistance aims to bolster the capabilities of Mozambique’s armed forces and support the deployment of Quick Reaction Forces (QRF) trained by EUTM-MOZ.

The mission aims to evaluate its presence in Mozambique by the end of the year within its two-year mandate starting in September 2022. It has trained Mozambican instructors and formed Quick Reaction Forces, among other objectives. It has also provided operational training, combat equipment, and significant material support exceeding €80 million to Mozambique’s armed forces.

The African Union Hands over military equipment to SAMIM

The AU handed over military equipment to SAMIM to bolster the mission’s effort in Cabo Delgado. The inventory includes protective assault vehicles, military utility trucks, mine detectors, generators, tents, sleeping bags, beds & mattresses, computers, printers, cameras, conference furniture, projectors, and sound systems among others. It was revealed that the delivery was made possible owing to China’s $100 million military aid grant to the African Union.

Insurgents’ Movement and Strategy and return to the Messalo River area

Insurgents have managed to return to the Messalo River area, utilizing it as a refuge. The movement of fighters southward towards Quissanga and the laying of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in the region near Onumoz and Chicomo villages suggest defensive measures taken by insurgents to protect their bases and maintain control of routes between Messalo and Catupa forest.

Security Risks in Vulnerable Districts and the Role of Local Forces

Local Forces, particularly in districts like Muidumbe, Mueda, and northern Macomia, have been crucial as the first line of defense against insurgent attacks. They have responded to attacks, provided safety to fleeing villagers, and even engaged in efforts to regularize militias for better coordination and support in the future. Some districts, such as Muidumbe and Mueda, will face heightened security risks, especially with the reduction of troop numbers by the SAMIM in December. The absence of Local Forces in certain areas, like southern Mocímboa da Praia district and coastal Macomia, leaves these regions particularly vulnerable, possibly necessitating an expansion of responsibilities for security forces like the Rapid Support Force (RSF).

Somalia

A decline in IS-Somalia Attacks: Compared to previous years, IS-Somalia conducted significantly fewer attacks in 2023; only 9 incidents were claimed in Puntland or Mogadishu and surrounding areas. This is an indication of a significant decrease.

IS-Somalia’s ability to run shadow taxation and extortion networks in Mogadishu and Bosaso has significantly increased its revenue over the years, despite pressure from security forces and al-Shabaab. However, the killing of IS-Somalia leader Bila-al-Sudani and other fighters in January 2023 has disrupted the group’s internal workings, leading to a decrease in attacks.

Failure to address this financial issue could enable IS-Somalia to not only remain a significant security threat but also continue supporting other Islamic State affiliates in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Afghanistan.

D.R. Congo

The Ituri military court sentenced eight ISCAP rebels and four FARDC soldiers for war crimes committed during clashes in Ituri, with sentences ranging from ten years to life imprisonment. One terrorist appealed his twenty-year sentence, while the other seven accepted their sentences without appeal.

Among the crimes were pillaging, participation in insurrectional movements, murder, pillage, rape, destruction, and the murder of thirteen civilians in a lakeside town. The court identified 254 victims and awarded $1.979 million in damages, with the hearings facilitated by MONUSCO’s justice support section to combat impunity.

The verdicts delivered by the Ituri military court, sentencing for war crimes, highlight a significant step in addressing impunity within the region, with MONUSCO’s support in facilitating the hearings underscoring the concerted efforts to combat such atrocities.

Tactics and Strategy and Weapon Choice: The militants are employing guerrilla warfare tactics, including ambushes, armed assaults on villages, and targeted attacks on specific groups (Christians, security patrols). They’re using surprise attacks to create fear and chaos, aiming to destabilize the regions they target. The choice of weapons is likely a mix of firearms, machetes, and possibly explosives. These attacks are carried out with a combination of small arms and brutal, close-range weapons like machetes, inflicting significant damage within a short time frame.

Threat Matrix: The threat level is high due to the frequency and severity of attacks. Civilians, security forces, and even religious groups are targets, indicating a broad and indiscriminate threat to anyone perceived as opposed to their ideology or presence. The militants seem to be aiming for territorial control by instilling fear and eliminating perceived opposition. The attacks on villages, religious groups, and security patrols reflect their attempt to assert dominance and disrupt stability in the regions they operate in. Additionally, the attacks on specific religious groups may have the intention of sparking inter-community conflicts or widening divides within the population.

Conclusion:

November in East and Central Africa witnessed continued and intensified militant activities by groups affiliated with the Islamic State. Mozambique’s proactive response with increased defense spending and international support demonstrates a commitment to addressing security challenges. Somalia experienced a decrease in IS-Somalia attacks but faces persistent financial networks supporting the insurgency. In the D.R. Congo, ongoing attacks underscore the urgency of a coordinated response to protect civilians and combat militant activities, while the court’s verdicts mark a step towards addressing impunity. Overall, the region faces complex security threats demanding multifaceted strategies combining defense measures, community engagement, international cooperation, and support for affected populations.

Recommendations

The situation demands a comprehensive and coordinated response involving both security measures and community engagement to effectively combat the threat posed by these militant groups.

• Enhanced Security Measures: Increased patrols, intelligence gathering, and rapid response units are necessary to thwart surprise attacks and protect vulnerable communities.
• Community Engagement: Working closely with local communities to gather intelligence, build trust, and disrupt militants’ ability to recruit or find support within these areas is crucial.
• International Cooperation: Regional cooperation and support from neighboring countries or international bodies to address the root causes of the conflict, stem the flow of weapons, and counter extremist ideologies are essential.
• Humanitarian Aid and Support: Providing aid, both immediate and long-term, to affected communities to help them recover from the trauma of attacks and rebuild their lives is vital in stabilizing the region.
• Counter-radicalization Efforts: Initiatives to counter extremist ideologies and prevent the radicalization of vulnerable individuals are crucial for long-term stability.