Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in August 2020

In August, attacks perpetrated by the Islamic State affiliates across East and Central Africa have shown a worrying trend that reiterates the growing threat caused by the terror organization. The group has been steadfast in its resolve to expand and establish itself as a formidable organization as it continues to seek and pursue the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in countries like Somalia, DRC, and Mozambique. As the groups especially the relatively new ISCAP in DRC and Mozambique continue to amerce territories in the restive regions of North Kivu and Cabo Delgado respective they have conducted several dozen attacks that have left at least 200 people dead. The group has shown that while there are government responses in the countries the group is stronger than estimated and has capabilities including weaponry, large numbers of recruits and fighters as well as tactical and geographical advantages that are mostly unprecedented.

In Mozambique and DRC, the military and allied security forces appear to be struggling with ensuring that the group doesn’t continue its violent campaign which has allowed the elusive ISCAP to continue attacking civilians and amercing territory as is the case of the Mbau-Kamango axis in DRC and the port city of Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique. In Somalia, while al Shabaab has been active in its attacks and activities its Abnaa Ul Calipha counterpart has been relatively docile with only one attack at the beginning of the month against the military in Mogadishu. Herein is a list of attacks conducted by ISCAP in Mozambique ISCAP-ADF in DRC and Abnaa Ul Calipha in Somalia during the month of August.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, DRC, and Somalia for August 2020

Mozambique

• 05^th August- ISCA terrorists attempted to breach MDP town but were ambushed and pushed back by the Mozambican troops. The SITREP showed that the militants were forced to draw back and hide in the deserted houses of the neighboring villages.
• 05^th August- 08^th August– villages in the vicinity of MDP were attacked sequentially by ISCAP militants. The villages included Anga, Awasse that led to the troops running out of ammunition. They looted and burned down houses.
• 08^th August- 5 civilians were killed and seven homes burned down after five ISCA insurgents attacked Litamanda locality dressed in military uniform
• 08^th August– several people were kidnapped after the insurgents attacked a funeral procession in MDP
• 09^th August– after several days of battles between the Mozambican troops and IS militants the terrorists took control of Awasse and parts of MDP.
• 12^th August- ISCAP terrorists finally took over the port town of Mocimboa Da Praia (MDP) killing several troops and marines in what is being termed as the most sophisticated and well-coordinated battle by the terror organization yet.
• 13^th August– at least 40 refugees died after a boat they were traveling in was drowned by security officers in Nhongue Island as they escaped from the ISCAP incursion in MDP. Intelligence indicated that the troops shot at the boat despite the refugees trying to explain that they were fleeing the violence in MDP.
• 15^th August- fighting was reported between the troops deployed to recapture Mocimboa da Praia and the ISCAP insurgents holding the port town. No immediate casualties were reported and the town remains under the terrorists’ control.
• 20^th August- 2 civilians, a 50-year-old and her 12-year-old granddaughter who were refugees from MDP were killed by jihadists in Nawamba, Macomia town.
• 27^th August- ISCAP engaged a military convoy traveling to Mueda at Awasse. No casualties were reported.
• 28^th August– ISCAP attacked and drove out civilians from MDP and Awasse environs as the group prepared to engage defense and security forces.
• 30^th August– clashes between troops and ISCAP terrorists at Miangalewa reported several casualties as the troops traveled from Pemba to Mueda where they are expected to mount an offensive attack to recapture MDP from the insurgents.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• 01^st August-   4 civilians were killed and 2 others were injured in the Mutido/Everu village in Banande-Kainama group in Ben territory.
• 05^th August- 1 soldier was killed, weapons, and ammunition seized by ISCAP during clashes between both sides in Beni territory North Kivu.
• 05^th August- 3 people were killed in the locality of Kyamata in Banyari-Tchabi in Irumu in Ituri province. Several other people were kidnapped, the militants also looted food, cows, and goats. The areas are majorly deserted as at least 25 of the villages in the sector have been abandoned by the residents.
• 10^th August- 5 civilians were killed in the Liseyi Banyali sector in Ituri province by ISCA militants
• 11^th August- 1 man was stabbed to death by ADF militants in Ntoma-Kivaghutha village in the Rwenzori sector in the Beni region. The man was ambushed by militants as he left the fields.
• 12^th August- 1civilian was killed and several others were kidnapped by ISCA insurgents during a series of incursions in the Rwenzori sector. They also looted food and supplies from the villages but were successfully pushed out by the Congolese military.
• 13^th Aug- 4 people were killed in the afternoon in Kitevya village, near Oicha which is the capital of Beni.
• 14^th Aug- 4 farmers were killed with crude weapons in the Mbau-Kamango axis in Beni. Several people were kidnapped.
• 16^th Aug- 8 people killed, 2 kidnapped, and 1 seriously wounded in Mwenda village in the Rwenzori sector. The insurgents used machetes and looted food and medical supplies from the neighbourhood pharmacy.
• 15^th Aug- 2 Congolese troops injured in clashes between them and ISCAP militants in Kpolowu. Two terrorists were killed
• 18^th Aug- 18 people among them 1 soldier killed in an ambush by ISCAP on the Mbau-Kamango road. The attack was targeting road users of the road that was opened this year. 2 militants were also killed in the attack.
• 20^th Aug- 3 people killed in Matiba village located on Mbau-Kamango road as they returned from their fields.
• 22^nd Aug- 13 people killed in 2 villages- Matiba and Wikeno by ADF terrorists.
• 24^th Aug- 20 people were killed in attacks in 3 villages; Mapasana, Mayitike, and Sayuni located 30km northwest of Beni City.
• 25^th Aug- 17 people were killed in Babila village located less than 10km from the previous string of attacks conducted this week.
• 28^th August- 5 bodies recovered following an ISCAP attack near Mbau town with four of the victims being women.
• 28^th August- 7 people killed by ADF insurgents in Palmba village in the Beni-Mbau sector among the killed were two military wives
• 28^th August- clashes between the ISCAP terrorists and Congolese troops along Mbau-Kamango road led to the deaths of several militants, several soldiers seriously injured, and the loss of military jeep to the terrorists.
• 29^th August- 1 killed in the ISCAP attack in Kingmuviri village in Beni-Mbau Sector. The victim was shot dead.
• 30^th August- 5 civilians, 9 soldiers killed by ADF in an attack along Mbau-Kamango road. At least 10 militants were also killed in the altercation.
• 31^st August- 1 farmer was killed by ADF terrorists in Maleki village in Beni-Mbau Sector about 9km west of Oicha. The victim was beheaded.

Somalia

• 07^th August- 1 SNA soldier was killed and 2 other wounded in an attack by Abnaa ul Calipha at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.

ISCAP and ISS Areas of Operation

In Somalia, ISS has been majorly active in Puntland where the group has been seen training in the Bari mountains especially during the Haji celebrations. While that is where it is headquartered in Somalia, the group maintains cells in the south and central Somalia with the majority of its attacks in the past couple of months being in Mogadishu.

In DRC, ISCAP has historically been active in Beni territory but in the past weeks, the group appears to be expanding with isolated attacks in Ituri province and the re-concentration of attacks in the Mbau-Kamango axis that as caught a break immediately after the opening of the road that was a theatre for dangerous attacks in 2017.

In Mozambique, the group has expanded massively and has taken strategic appropriation of its areas of operation to include key port cities, main transport routes that have given the group an unfair advantage against the military who have been attacked on numerous occasion in the last weeks of August as they attempted to travel to Mueda from Pemba where they are expected to launch a massive operation to retake MDP.

Attacks Trend, Contributing Factors, and Trajectory

In Mozambique, the group continues to hold its position on the port city of Mocimboa da Praia and has been attacking the military in the vicinity of the town. In the past five days, the group has attacked and ambushed the military which is preparing to stage a massive CT operation from Mueda. The troops traveling from Pemba have been attacked and intelligence indicates that the group has been receiving reinforcements as evidenced by two boats intercepted by defense forces with at least 60 suspected recruits traveling to MDP. 

In DRC the past fortnight the group has stepped up its attacks especially in the vicinity of Oicha and its environs that has led to the deaths of innocent civilians, troops as well as military wives. In the past few days, ISCAP has conducted uncoordinated attacks in the villages along a road that has long served as a blind spot that has been exploited to attack the civilian and military population in Beni. The road was rehabilitated to facilitate the prompt delivery of military personnel and equipment especially in attacks by the ADF. The past week evidences that the threat posed by ISCAP in DRC is much greater than previously anticipated and that the relentless nature of the group makes them very dangerous and a swift CT strategy ought to be mounted to ensure that the previous military gains against them and the relationship between troops and civilians aren’t reversed.

In August especially the last two weeks of the month there has been a significant upsurge in attacks in DRC while in Mozambique and Somalia there has been an evident lull. In DRC the Mbau-Kamango axis has seen increased attacks with most targeting civilians and the military including their families. The violence that has been centered along the crucial road that was recently renovated to facilitate the military and security forces movement into Beni territory. On the other hand, in Mozambique, while the attacks have reduced in number, the group has however stepped up the magnitude of their attacks. ISCAP conducted a series of sequential attacks that were geared at exhausted the already-stretched-thin military before the historical seizure of the very-well guarded port city of MDP that is pivotal to the logistics of the oil projects in the Cabo Delgado province.

Some of the contributing factors to the current trends in the insurgencies in DRC and Mozambique can be attributed to several geographical and sociopolitical and economic inclinations and factors. First, the local governments continue to underestimate the threat posed by the growth and despite there being a response, it has evidentially not matched the efforts of the terror groups. In DRC the militants continue to show that their capabilities are not diminished despite the presence of troops and UN peacekeepers. The local government in DRC continues to refer to ADF as Uganda rebels and as such creating conditions that have continually and indirectly facilitated the expansion of the group into Ituri while taking advantage of the various conflicts that have marred the northeastern region. In both countries, the groups have been able to exploit the geographical advantage given by the forest and the fact that the fighters are natives and are familiar with the terrain as opposed to the military. In both countries, the military has been accused of violating the rights of civilians in the name of intelligence gathering and as such creating animosity between the public and law enforcers. The suspicion has contributed to the lack of public cooperation between the public and security forces. This has further put a dampener on the government gains in the restive province as most citizens do not have faith in the police, military, and the government who are yet to erect a foolproof way to civilians and terrorists in Cabo Delgado to avoid the arrests, torture, and killing of the innocents.

In both countries, it is evident that the violent attacks have been yielding the expected results by the militants as in Mozambique most villages leading to MDP and the neighboring villages and districts have been deserted with the number of internally displaced people reaching an all-time high with the humanitarian crisis being bad and even worsened by the looming threat of the current global pandemic. In Beni, residents especially farmers have threatened the central government of secession if the problem of ADF is not addressed as they feel the government is not doing enough to protect the civilians especially when they commute between their agricultural fields and homes.

CT Implications And Socioeconomic Insights

The past month evidences that the threat posed by ISCAP in DRC and Mozambique is much greater than previously anticipated and that the relentless nature of the group makes them very dangerous and a swift CT strategy ought to be mounted to ensure that the previous military gains against them and the relationship between troops and civilians aren’t reversed. In Mozambique, military intelligence indicates that a large contingent of troops have been transported across from Pemba to Mueda and are expected to mount a massive attack that is geared at recapturing the port city of MDP in the coming weeks that has remained in the hands of jihadists for a couple of weeks. Additionally, the intelligence gaps that were first evident in July are slowly reducing as the military is able to conduct CT operations that have led to the arrests of several key recruiters and recruits and seizing weapons and military uniforms used by the militants in their operations.

In DRC, just as there have been consistent attacks by ISCAP, the military and UN peacekeepers have been mounting a formidable opposition and which has led to the arrests and death of the militants as well as the seizure of key locations that are used by the jihadists to train and replenish for attacks. Despite the CT operations in Beni, the group continues to mount attacks with a recent trend that appears to be targeting the military families in the region a move that has been instilling fear among the residents who have been playing catch and run with the militants. The civilians live in fear as they do not know if their wives and children and fellow kin will be brutally massacred or kidnapped and taken into the forest. According to intelligence out of DRC, the FARDC and MONUSCO do not intervene in time after receiving the alerts from the civilian populations which give the ADF an upper hand especially seeing as they are attacking during the day without fear or the camouflage of darkness. MDP town is close to the Tanzanian and Mozambique’s border and as such making it very strategic in the facilitation of the insurgents’ possible future expansions both further into Mozambique and towards the neighboring country.

Threat Matrix

Despite the small gains against the jihadists; the CT actors ought to re-evaluate the strategies seeing as the groups especially in Mozambique and DRC have been outsmarting and proving resilient than previously estimated. Mozambique’s neighbors including Tanzania and South Africa are on edge and have been egging their counterparts to take charge of the situation, seek assistance to defeat the insurgency.

For instance, in Kenya, the Counterterrorism police have killed a key ISIS East Africa recruiter Juma Athuman Mwengo in Kwale county near the border with Tanzania even as the group in Mozambique continues to scale up their attacks. This is evidence that Tanzania is a key transit point for Jihadists that seek to join ISCAP in Mozambique. The death of the recruiter also proves that while East African nations fail to grasp the gravity of the threat posed by ISIS the group in Mozambique has been doing recruitment drives in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya.

The groups are ever-evolving and as such to keep ahead countries in the East and the Greater Lakes region ought to conduct joint CT operations that will dissuade the group from expanding further. The group has shown resilience and it ought not to be ignored as it is in the initial stages of creating a name for itself and could adequately influence lone wolf attacks in regions away from where they are headquartered.