Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 1st – October 31st, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, also known as Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen, is an Islamist extremist group with affiliations to Al-Qaeda. It has been operating in the East Africa region, mainly in Somalia and Kenya.  Notably it’s also calling its fighters to consider waging Jihad against Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab has been involved in insurgency activities, particularly in Somalia, for nearly two decades. The group conducts a wide range of attacks, with civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops being among their main targets. They frequently target critical infrastructures and property as well.

The frequency of Al-Shabaab’s militant activities has been on the rise, with one to four attacks being recorded daily, primarily in central and southern regions of Somalia. In the month of October 2023, a surge of attacks targeting security operators in East Africa, primarily concentrated in regions such as Lower and Middle Shabelle in Somalia, as well as the Juba region, specifically Kismayo, underscore the persistent threat posed by the Al-Shabaab extremist group. In neighboring Kenya, northern frontier regions, Mandera, Wajir and Garissa have witnessed several incidents of terrorism as well as coastal county of Lamu. These areas experienced a high frequency of attacks and confrontations involving Al-Shabaab militants, marking the need for robust counterterrorism measures.

The weapon of choice utilized by Al-Shabaab in these events continues to be Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). IEDs have remained a prominent source of casualties and disruptions in the affected regions. Alongside IEDs, Al-Shabaab has demonstrated flexibility by engaging in ambushes and direct confrontations with military installations, which further emphasizes their adaptable approach to threats.

Al-Shabaab continues to exploit clan affiliations and divisions to further its extremist agenda in the East Africa region. The group leverages clan-based grievances and rivalries, often infiltrating communities by portraying itself as a protector or advocate for certain clans. This strategic manipulation allows Al-Shabaab to gain support, recruits, and resources from specific clans while exacerbating existing divisions within society. By capitalizing on clannism, the group aims to weaken the cohesiveness of local communities and undermine the authority of the central government, making it more challenging for counterterrorism efforts to address the threat.

Al-Shabaab has been advancing propaganda that promotes its extremist ideologies and objectives. Their propaganda includes the dissemination of videos, audio recordings, and written materials that aim to radicalize individuals, recruit new members, and justify their acts of terrorism. They often exploit grievances, such as political instability, economic challenges, and perceived foreign interventions, to gain support. Al-Shabaab’s propaganda also attempts to exploit religious and ethnic divisions to further its cause, portraying itself as a defender of Islam against foreign forces and governments.

It’s important to note that spreading propaganda is a common tactic among terrorist organizations to maintain and expand their influence. However, countering such propaganda and addressing its root causes are crucial in efforts to combat terrorism and extremism.

Notably in the month of review, Al-Shabaab has been able to advance its propaganda, exploiting on the ongoing Israeli war against Hamas. Al-Shabaab which is in support of the Hamas extremist group staged anti-Israel gatherings and solidarity demos in various towns and squares in Somalia.

Terrorist Events:  October 1^st – October 31^st

• On October 31, 2023, clashes erupted between Al-Shabaab militants and security forces in the suburbs of Kismayo, Lower Juba Province, Somalia.
• On October 30, 2023, at least two Kenyan police officers were killed, and four others were wounded in the northeastern part of Kenya following an Al-Shabaab attack in Ege-Dam along Dadaab-Garissa in the Northern Frontier Districts (NFD).
• On October 30, 2023, members of the Mujahideen forces carried out an improvised explosive device (IED) operation in the Weydow area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, targeting a senior intelligence officer of Somalia.
• An explosion operation was carried out by the Mujahideen forces in Baidhaba town of Bay region, targeting a convoy of Somali National Army (SNA) troops. Casualties were reported.
• On October 29, 2023, Al-Shabaab conducted a special operation in the Kahda district of Mogadishu, targeting an apostate soldier who was a member of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA).
• On October 29, 2023, Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on the positions of the Somali National Army (SNA) troops, especially in the area near Bakara market in Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 28, 2023, Al-Shabaab forces claimed to have fought heavy battles in the camps of the Ugandan forces in the areas of Golweyn and No/60 of Lower Shabelle.
• On October 28, 2023, Al-Shabaab forces from Banadir province attacked a security checkpoint manned by the SNA in the Macalin Noor neighborhood in Dharkenley district of Mogadishu. One soldier was killed, and three others were injured in the explosion.
• On October 27, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle in the camp operated by the ATMIS-Ugandan forces in the Bur-Olow area under the Barawe district, Lower Shabelle.
• On October 27, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces ambushed a boat with the Somali coast guards who were traveling along the coast of Dhanaane, an area along the coastal road that connects the cities of Mogadishu and Marka.
• On October 27, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces in the Bay region claimed to have attacked three senior government officials in an ambush raid in the general vicinity of Dinsoor.
• On October 26, 2023, the Mujahideen Bombing Brigade from Banadir carried out a series of planned bombings in Mogadishu targeting Somali security forces. One soldier was killed in the attacks.
• On October 26, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an attack that targeted a Somali government official in the general vicinity of Daynile, Mogadishu. The grenade attack also left one of his staff critically injured, and his house was destroyed.
• On October 26, 2023, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have targeted SNA troops in the vicinity of Madina Hotel in Hamarweyne district of Mogadishu. At least four soldiers were injured in this blast.
• On October 26, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked positions of the Kenyan security forces in Dhamase and Lafey districts in Mandera. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 25, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Ugandan troops during their routine patrols in the general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 24, 2023, Mujahideen forces claimed to have carried out heavy battles on the military base in Qoryooley district and Riddada positions in Mukayga and Haanta Dheer neighborhoods in Afgooye district, Lower Shabelle.
• On October 24, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed at least 11 Somalian forces, injured 16 others, captured two, and seized a military vehicle full of weapons and equipment in clashes in Bulobarde City, Hiran, Somalia.

• On October 24, 2023, Al-Shabaab forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle against the military base belonging to the Somali National Army (SNA) in the Jazeera area on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
• On October 22, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an IED blast that left two SNA troops killed and two others injured in the vicinity of Sheikh Ibrahim’s on the outskirts of the capital city of Mogadishu.
• On October 21, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack that targeted SNA troops manning a checkpoint in a locality in Janale district of Lower Shabelle.
• On October 20, 2023, an Al-Shabaab IED targeted an SNA convoy that was on routine duties in the areas of Barire, Lower Shabelle.
• On October 20, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed a coordinated suicide bombing that targeted government troops in the water wells area on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The target station was also completely destroyed, and vehicles and weapons were burnt.
• On October 19, 2023, Al-Shabaab engaged in heavy fighting directly with the military bases of Ugandan forces in the Barawe district airport and Bur-Olow area, Lower Shabelle.
• On October 18, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen fighters waged heavy direct battles against military camps where ATMIS troops were located in Maya-fulula and Ban-Khiyano in Baydhaba city of Bay. The number of casualties is unknown.
• On October 12, 2023, Al-Shabaab injured at least two Somalian forces in an IED attack on a military checkpoint in Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu.
• On October 11, 2023, Al-Shabaab amputated a “thief” in Takulo, Bakool, Southwestern Somalia through a kangaroo court process.
• On October 11, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed five and injured seven Somalian forces while repelling attacks in Mahdai, Middle Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 10, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed Salama and Mafer districts, destroying Kenyan barracks in Lamu, Kenya.
• On October 10, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed at least two Ugandan forces and destroyed a military tank in an IED attack between 50- and 60-kilometers districts. They also ambushed a Ugandan military base in the 60 kilometers district, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 9, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed a military base and a barracks, killing and injuring several in Baidoa and Gufgaduud Bori cities, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
• On October 9, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed three Kenyan military bases in El Ramo and Lafi, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• On October 7, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack that targeted SNA troops in the general vicinity of Afgooye, Lower Shabelle region. The militants killed one SNA soldier and wounded four others.
• On October 6, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed four Somalian and Ugandan bases in Afmadow, Odeqli, Barsanguni in Kismayo, and Lantaboro in Afgoyee, Juba and Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 6, 2023, Al-Shabaab injured at least two Somalian forces in an IED attack on a military checkpoint in Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu.
• On October 5, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed at least one Somalian forces element and injured others in attacks on Somalian, Burundian, and Ugandan military bases and barracks in Afgoyee, Qoryoley, Shalambood, and Elbeq, Balaad, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 4, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed that two Somalian forces surrendered to them in Banadir, Somalia.
• On October 4, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed an Ethiopian military base and two military barracks in Dinsoor and Afgoyee cities, Bay and Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 3, 2023, Al-Shabaab injured at least two Somalian forces in an attack on a military base in Bar-Sanguni, Kismayo, Juba, Somalia.
• On October 3, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed four Ugandan and Somalian military bases in Garbhali, Dinsoor, and Janali City, and in Dano District of Qoryoley, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On September 3, 2023, a member of the Somalian Parliament survived an assassination attempt that destroyed his vehicle with an IED in Wabri. Additionally, fighters assassinated Parliament Election Committee Member, Osman Mahmoud Warou, in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 2, 2023, Al-Shabaab ambushed Ugandan and Ethiopian military bases in Barawi, Boralo, and Barderi in Lower Shabelle and Gedo, Somalia.
• On October 2, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed two Somalian forces, including an officer, and injured two others in an IED attack in “Ali Folderi” District, Mahdai, Middle Shabelle, Somalia.
• On October 1, 2023, Al-Shabaab killed two Burundian forces and injured four others in attacks on two military bases in Balaad City and Qalmo, Middle Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• On October 1, 2023, Al-Shabaab shelled a Turkish military base with missiles in Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 1, 2023, Al-Shabaab reported that a Kismayo official survived an assassination attempt, and two of his guards were injured in an IED attack on his vehicle.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab remains a persistent threat in both Somalia and its neighboring country, Kenya. The group’s sharpened skills are evident in its successful surveillance of targets to assess vulnerabilities and carry out subsequent operations.

Al-Shabaab’s ongoing attacks, which target military bases, convoys, government officials, and civilian populations, indicate the group’s growing confidence in its efforts to gain control over war-torn regions in the Horn of Africa and neighboring countries.

As an Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, Al-Shabaab has employed various tactics, including improvised explosive devices (IEDs), vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), and suicide bombings to target security forces, public facilities, and government officials. While the group utilizes asymmetrical tactics like hit-and-run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks, it has demonstrated an ability to strike more secure zones with well-coordinated and disruptive assaults.

This Islamist militant group remains the primary destabilizing force in the region, posing a significant obstacle to international reconstruction efforts within Somalia. Al-Shabaab’s resilience and adaptability in the complex civil war necessitate constant adjustments in military strategies to effectively counter its increasing attacks, particularly in Somalia.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab as a fully morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

To effectively address the ongoing security challenges posed by Al-Shabaab, several critical actions are needed.

Firstly, there is an urgent requirement to strengthen intelligence and surveillance operations, particularly in regions where frequent attacks occur. Special attention should be given to the detection and prevention of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which are commonly used by Al-Shabaab.

Secondly, enhanced border security measures are crucial. Al-Shabaab operates across national borders, making it essential to reinforce border security. Additionally, promoting cross-border intelligence sharing among affected nations, notably Somalia and Kenya, is paramount to coordinate efforts effectively.

Thirdly, counter-radicalization strategies should be developed and implemented. Initiatives aimed at countering Al-Shabaab’s radicalization efforts must target vulnerable communities and individuals as a pivotal part of this approach.

In summary, the comprehensive strategy to mitigate the threat of Al-Shabaab includes bolstering intelligence and surveillance, enhancing border security, implementing counter-radicalization measures, promoting regional cooperation, protecting critical infrastructure, and addressing the root causes of the conflict and humanitarian crisis. Continuous vigilance and adaptability in counterterrorism efforts are essential to ensure the safety and well-being of affected populations and counteract the persistent security challenges posed by the group in East Africa.