Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of November 1st – November 30th, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, also known as Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen, is an Islamist extremist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. It has been operational in the East Africa region, particularly in Somalia and Kenya. Notably, the group calls upon its fighters to consider waging Jihad against Ethiopia. Over the past two decades, Al-Shabaab has been actively engaged in insurgency activities, primarily in Somalia. The group carries out a diverse range of attacks, targeting civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops as their main adversaries. Critical infrastructures and property are also frequent targets of their attacks.

In November 2023, the East African countries; notably Somalia and Kenya experienced dozens in terrorist activities, primarily attributed to the extremist groups Al-Shabaab and Mujahideen. The epicenter of these attacks was concentrated in Somalia, with a focus on Lower Shabelle, Mogadishu, and regions bordering Kenya and Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab fighters exhibited a pattern of sophisticated attacks, utilizing a range of tactics such as ambushes, IED explosions, and direct assaults on military bases and civilian targets.

The choice of weapons by these extremist groups varied, with Al-Shabaab frequently employing Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in roadside bombings, targeting both military convoys and civilian areas. Mujahideen forces engaged in direct armed confrontations, heavy battles, and grenade raids. The attacks resulted casualties among security forces, including soldiers from the Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), as well as civilians.

The terrorism menace in the region underscores the need for comprehensive countermeasures to enhance security and protect both military and civilian populations. Strengthening intelligence gathering and collaboration among regional security forces is crucial to preempting potential attacks. Additionally, improving border security and coordination with neighboring countries, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, is essential to disrupt the mobility of extremist groups. Enhanced surveillance and monitoring of key transit routes, such as coastal roads connecting major cities, can help detect and prevent attacks.

Furthermore, investing in community engagement and counter-radicalization programs is vital to address the root causes of extremism. By fostering trust between the government and local communities, authorities can gain valuable information and cooperation in identifying potential threats. International collaboration and support, including intelligence-sharing and capacity-building initiatives, are paramount to creating a united front against terrorism in the region. The deployment of advanced technologies for border surveillance and early warning systems can also bolster security efforts.

The frequency of Al-Shabaab’s militant activities has been on the rise, with one to four attacks being recorded daily, primarily in central and southern regions of Somalia. In the month of under review a surge of attacks targeting security operators in East Africa, primarily concentrated in regions such as Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle in Somalia, in the capital Mogadishu as well as the Juba region, specifically Kismayo, underscore the persistent threat posed by the Al-Shabaab extremist group. These areas experienced a high frequency of attacks and confrontations involving Al-Shabaab militants, marking the need for robust counterterrorism measures.

The events of November 2023 highlight the persistent threat of terrorism in East Africa, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to counter the activities of groups like Al-Shabaab and Mujahideen. Addressing the root causes, improving intelligence capabilities, enhancing regional cooperation, and leveraging technological advancements are key components of an effective counterterrorism strategy. Only through collective and proactive efforts can the region hope to mitigate the impact of terrorist activities and protect the security and well-being of its citizens.

Terrorist Events: November 1^st – November 30^th  

• November 29, 2023, Al-Shabaab fighters from Lower Shabelle province in southern Somalia claimed to have engaged in a significant battle against the camp of the Ugandan troops operating under ATMIS mandate in the area of Number 60.

• On November 29, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on SNA official in Xoosh neighborhood of Dharkenley district in Mogadishu. The official was assassinated and his weapon looted.
• On November 29, 2023, a police officer was injured in a suspected Al-Shabaab attack that targeted the Alinjugur police post in Fafi, Garissa, NEP Kenya.
• On November 29, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of a government official identified as Mohamed Adan in the vicinity of Coosweyne area of Galgaduud region.
• On November 28, 2023, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have engaged in a heavy battle against the base of Ugandan troops in the Danow area and the Somali National Army (SNA) base in the Jannaale district of Lower Shabelle.
• On November 28, 2023, Al-Shabaab forces conducted a special operation in the Weydow area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, resulting in the death of one SNA soldier.
• On November 28, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED attack targeting SNA troops in the general area of Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. The blast injured five soldiers.
• On November 27, 2023, Al-Shabaab carried out an operation in the Sabid area under the Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle. During the operation, four SNA soldiers were captured, and their weapons were looted by Al-Shabaab.
• On November 27, 2023, Mujahideen forces attacked the Goordan camp in the Hodan district of Mogadishu, where SNA troops were stationed. The attack resulted in the death of one soldier and injuries to six others due to IED explosions.
• On November 26, 2023, in Lower Shabelle, Mujahideen forces engaged in heavy battles in the camps of the African Union forces (ATMIS) in Eleboor, Barawe district, and in the areas of Bur Alow and Lanta Bure.
• On November 25, 2023, an explosion carried out by the Mujahideen in the vicinity of the Tomb of Sheikh Ibrahim, on the outskirts of Mogadishu, targeted SNA troops stationed there. Two soldiers were killed, and two others were injured.
• On November 25, 2023, Mujahideen forces carried out a heavy battle targeting the base of the SNA and ATMIS troops in the Jazira area, an area along the coastal road connecting the cities of Mogadishu and Marka.
• On November 26, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted an operation targeting Kenyan security forces and civilians in the areas of Marafa and Poromoko, Lamu county, Kenya. Damage to properties was reported.
• On November 24, 2023, Al-Shabaab roadside IEDs targeted an SNA convoy traveling in the Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle, resulting in the death of one soldier and serious injury to another.
• On November 25, 2023, Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle at the camp of the Uganda-ATMIS army and the base of the SNA troops in the Qoryoley district of Lower Shabelle.
• On November 24, 2023, Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting the camp of the African Union forces (ATMIS) in the Number 60 area, Lower Shabelle.
• On November 23, 2023, Mujahideen forces engaged in heavy battles at night against the bases operated by SNA troops in the city of Marka and the districts of Jannaale, Lower Shabelle.
• On November 22, 2023, Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle against the camp of the ATMIS-Kenyan troops on the outskirts of the Kambooni area, Lower Juba. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 21, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed and injured Ugandan and Somalian forces in an ambush on a military base in Number 60, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.

• On November 20, 2023, in the Juba Region of southern Somalia, Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a battle against the base of Somali troops in the Barsanguni area on the outskirts of Kismayo. It was confirmed that one government soldier was injured.
• On November 18, 2023, Mujahideen forces launched a heavy attack in the morning hours at the camp of the Somalian troops on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba. One soldier was killed.
• On November 17, 2023, Al-Shabaab fighters fought a heavy battle targeting the camp of the ATMIS army in the Buulo Mareer district of Lower Shabelle.
• On November 16, 2023, in Lower Shabelle, Mujahideen forces claimed credit against the base of the Rida Somali government troops in the Qoryooley district.
• On November 15, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed Somali troops in the general vicinity of Elasha Biyaha on the outskirts of Mogadishu. Casualties were reported.
• On November 15, 2023, Al-Shabaab’s IED explosion hit African Union forces during a routine patrol in the area of Number 60, Lower Shabelle. Four ATMIS troops were wounded in the explosion.
• On November 14, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed a roadside IED attack targeting Kenyan security troops on routine patrols between the areas of Dadaab and Hagar Dheer, Garissa NEP Kenya. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 14, 2023, Mujahideen forces conducted a grenade raid targeting the house of Murtad Hassan Gargurte in the Abdi Azis district, Banadir. He survived the raid since he was away from his home, but the house was heavily damaged.
• On November 14, 2023, in Banadir, Al-Shabaab carried out a targeted assassination operation at the Al-Baraka intersection in the Hodan district of Mogadishu. They killed SNA soldier named Ibrahim Hasan Geelle, who was a soldier of the Rida.
• On November 13, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for carrying out a heavy battle against SNA troops’ base in the Wajid district, Bakool region of Somalia.
• On November 13, 2023, a suicide bombing struck the Military Academy in the Somali capital. A suicide bomber detonated an explosive device at Jaalle Siyaad Military Academy, in northern Mogadishu, at around 08:25.
• On November 13, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed a Somalian Intelligence Element in an ambush on a military convoy in Dharkenley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 13, 2023, Al Shabaab targeted Somali Security Forces with an IED, killing two in Mogadishu.
• On November 13, 2023, Al-Shabaab targeted two Ugandan bases, killing two in Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On November 12, 2023, Al-Shabaab fighters operating in the capital city of Mogadishu bombed a group of Somali Military Police, who were traveling in the area of Ceelasha Biyah on the outskirts of the capital.
• On November 12, 2023, Mujahideen forces launched a heavy attack against the Somali government troops operating in the area of Basan West in Dharkenley district of Mogadishu. One soldier was killed.
• On November 11, 2023, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush attack that targeted the Somali troops on Jijibow mountain, outside Bulo Burde district in the Islamic region of Hiran in central Somalia.
• On November 8, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed and injured Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Karan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 8, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed a Somalian Forces Element and injured another in two separate attacks in Cerkus and Gaher, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 8, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed 3 and injured 2 in an ambush on Somalian Forces in Odeqli and ambushed Somalian and Ugandan military bases in Janale, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On November 7, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly ambushed a military base, killing 2 and injuring 3 in Halgan, Hiran, Somalia.
• On November 7, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed a Somalian Forces Element and injured four others in an IED attack in Shanghani, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 7, 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly killed two Somalian Forces, including an officer, in an ambush on a military base in Odeqli and ambushed a Ugandan military base in Janale, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• On November 7, 2023, Al-Shabaab carried out two Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks targeting Security Forces in Dagmada Kaaraan District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 6, 2023, Mujahideen forces launched a direct attack in the last few hours on the camp of the ATMIS Ugandan troops in the No/60 area. Casualties were reported.
• On November 5, 2023, heavy fighting between Mujahideen forces and SNA took place on the outskirts of Halgan district in the eastern Islamic province of Hiran. Various heavy losses were inflicted on the Somali government troops.
• On November 5, 2023, Al-Shabaab launched an attack on the Ugandan base in Danow, Lower Shabelle region.
• On November 4, 2023, Mujahideen forces bombed a checkpoint targeting a residence of the senior SNA officer named Yusuf Madale in the Abdi Azis district of Mogadishu.
• On November 4, 2023, soldiers of the Mujahideen operating in Hudur, Bakool province, launched a direct attack targeting ATMIS Ethiopian troops. Heavy artillery targeted the military bases.
• On November 4, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces from Bay province fought a heavy battle at the base of the Ethiopian Crusader forces in Dinsoor district, involving the use of different types of weapons.
• On November 3, 2023, Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting the base of the ATMIS forces in Bur-Olow, an area under the Barawe district of Lower Shabelle.
• On November 2, 2023, in a special operation carried out by Al-Shabaab fighters in the Wadajir district in the capital city of Mogadishu, they killed a senior officer of the SNA.
• On November 1, 2023, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces operating in Bakool province claimed to have clashed into a battle with Ethiopian forces in Wajid district.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab remains a persistent threat in both Somalia and its neighboring country, Kenya. The group’s sharpened skills are evident in its successful surveillance of targets to assess vulnerabilities and carry out subsequent operations.

In November 2023, Somalia and Kenya witnessed a significant escalation in terrorist activities, primarily orchestrated by extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and Mujahideen. Somalia, particularly the Lower Shabelle region and Mogadishu, emerged as hotspots for these incidents. Al-Shabaab’s tactics involved a diverse range of attacks, from targeted assassinations to sophisticated ambushes and coordinated assaults on military bases. The group’s ability to adapt its strategies, including the frequent use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and direct confrontations, demonstrated a concerning level of operational flexibility. Additionally, the involvement of Mujahideen forces added another layer of complexity, as they engaged in direct armed battles and grenade raids, posing a dual threat to both security forces and civilians.

Also notable, Al-Shabaab has strategically honed its propaganda efforts to win over the Somali populace by presenting itself as a provider of essential services, particularly in times of crisis. A notable example is the release of propaganda photos showcasing militants allegedly assisting the local population affected by floods in Jilib and Bu’Ale Districts, Middle Juba Region, Somalia. By portraying itself as actively engaged in flood relief efforts, Al-Shabaab aims to create an image of a benevolent force addressing the urgent needs of the people. This calculated messaging is designed to foster a perception that the group is filling governance voids left by the Federal government, especially in remote and vulnerable regions.

The propaganda emphasizes Al-Shabaab’s purported involvement in flood management committees and evacuation operations alongside military forces. The group strategically aligns itself with local initiatives, presenting its Mujahideen party as active participants in addressing community challenges. This narrative seeks to blur the lines between insurgency and governance, creating a perception that Al-Shabaab is not merely a militant group but an organization capable of delivering essential services and responding to humanitarian crises. Such propaganda efforts are aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the Federal government and positioning Al-Shabaab as a viable alternative, exploiting vulnerabilities and dissatisfaction among the Somali populace to bolster its influence in the region. The militant group also notably has organized pro-Hamas demos across the regions of Somalia.

Kenya, on the other hand, experienced cross-border threats from Al-Shabaab, with attacks reported in Lamu county. The group targeted both security personnel and civilians in operations aimed at destabilizing the region. Al-Shabaab’s focus on Kenyan security forces and civilians in Marafa and Poromoko showcased its ability to exploit vulnerabilities along the border, posing a transnational threat. The attacks in Garissa’s Dadaab and Hagar Dheer further underscored the need for heightened vigilance and coordinated counterterrorism efforts to secure porous border areas. However, robust counterterrorism efforts along the porous border with Somalia has greatly stemmed down operations on Kenyan soil. Terror events in the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa) have reduced significantly.

Insights gleaned from the November 2023 events suggest that terrorist groups are capitalizing on regional instabilities, porous borders, and ethnic tensions. The attacks on military bases operated by the African Union forces (ATMIS) and the Somali National Army reveal the strategic targeting of security infrastructure to undermine stability. The recurrent use of IEDs and ambushes by Al-Shabaab underscores the group’s emphasis on asymmetrical warfare, exploiting the challenging terrain and local grievances. The involvement of multiple extremist factions, such as Mujahideen forces, further complicates the security landscape, necessitating a nuanced approach to counterterrorism efforts.

Conclusion

To avert future attacks and stabilize the security situation in the region, security analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) calls for a multifaceted and collaborative strategy. Strengthening intelligence-sharing mechanisms between Somalia and Kenya is crucial for preemptive action against terrorist threats. Cross-border coordination should be prioritized to disrupt the mobility and financing of extremist groups. Investing in community-based initiatives that address root causes of radicalization, coupled with counter-radicalization programs, can foster trust between local populations and security forces. Additionally, enhancing the capacity of national security forces, both in terms of training and technology, is essential to improve their effectiveness in combating terrorism.

International support and collaboration remain pivotal, and the deployment of advanced surveillance technologies along critical transit routes can provide early warning and response capabilities. Regional organizations, such as the African Union, should play a central role in coordinating efforts and fostering unity among member states. Strengthening border security, particularly in Kenya, and addressing socio-economic disparities can contribute to long-term stability. Ultimately, a comprehensive and sustained approach that combines military, intelligence, diplomatic, and community-focused strategies is essential to mitigating the terrorist threat in Somalia and Kenya and fostering lasting security in the region.