Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of May 1st – May 31st, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen or the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab threatening the security and stability of East Africa continue to capitalize on political instability in Somalia, the group’s home-base to perpetrate attacks on security forces, government officials and civilians. The jihadist group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

Terrorist related kinetic incidents reduced in the four weeks of May as compared in the month of April. Significant reduction of attacks across the regions of Somalia have been noted in the month under review. However, terrorist threats have not completely been degraded as it is notable the group has persistently conducted a number of operations both in Kenya and in Somalia.

Notable, in the month of Ramadhan, attacks significantly reduced contrary to what counterterrorism actors expected, citing patterns of the past years, where spike in attacks were reported in the Holy month. That notwithstanding, activity in some regions of central and southern Somalia, where the terrorist group boast as to have significant control, in recent weeks has largely been related to logistical resupply activity besides coercing support from local villages.

In an effort to recruit fighters, Al-Shabaab has also resulted to attacking prisons from across the regions of Somalia. On March 4, Al-Shabaab attacked a prison in Bossaso, northern Somalia breaking out several inmates including group’s members who were serving jail terms. There are intelligence reports that Al-Shabaab intent to carry out further IED and suicide operations in Mogadishu targeting prisons. The group is desperate to recruit members within it fold. The group is somehow threatened by the entrant of Islamic State allied faction in East and Central Africa (IS-Somalia, IS in Mozambique and in DR Congo), fast appealing to jihadists in the region.

Al-Shabaab, an associated force of Al-Qaeda terrorist network probably has been keen on political scenarios unfolding in Somalia. Notably, the militant group as launched a number in first four months of 2021 where at least an average of 70 attacks were witnessed in Somalia and a handful in Kenya. In the month of May, at least 39 Al-Shabaab related events were recorded. Only a few were recorded in Kenya, a key target nation by Al-Shabaab.

AS Activities Week 1: May 1^st – May 7^th

• On May 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted several operations in Somalia. In one attack, Al-Shabaab claimed mortar attack in Galgala mountains in northern Somalia.
• On May 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed another mortar attack in Qoqani and Abdalla Biroole of Lower Juba Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On May 1st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack in Raage Ceele district of Middle Shabelle. As per local sources, an elder has been killed in Raage Ceele during the militant’s attack.
• On May 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM positions in Hiran. In Jalalaqsi district of Hiran region in central Somalia, Al-Shabaab fighters fired a number of mortar shells at a Djiboutian military base recording a number of casualties.
• On May 2^nd, in Wajid district of Bakool region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked an AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops causing casualties and property damage to the military base.
• On May 2^nd, suspected Al-Shabaab operatives reportedly hijacked a pickeup vehicle that was ferrying Miraa (khat) from Meru to Liboi, Garissa. The incident happened about 5 kilometers to Liboi town that is also close to the border with Somalia. Police reported that occupants were later released.

• On May 3^rd, At least two people were on Monday killed while one was critically injured when a vehicle, they were traveling in ran over an improvised explosive device (IED) suspected to have been planted on the road by Al-Shabaab militants at around border point 27, several kilometers past Ishakani village of Lamu East. The incident claimed by Al-Shabaab happened at 9.30 a.m.

• On May 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed of four AMISOM soldiers and wounding others in an IED explosion followed by an ambush attack in the road between Kamboni and Buur Gaabo in Somalia’s Lower Juba region.
•  On May 5^th, At least three people died and one woman injured on Wednesday when a landmine exploded in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The incident took place in Mogadishu’s Kahda district when a Toyota Hilux Surf hit a landmine that was on the roadside.

AS Activities Week 2: May 7^th – 14th

• On May 7^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants reportedly launched an attack on a security checkpoint in Mogadishu’s Darusalaam district late May 7. Preliminary reports indicated that the attackers assaulted the installation using rocket-propelled grenade launchers (RPG) and automatic weapons. Casualty figures were however unclear.
• On May 9^th, A Ministry of Justice official killed in Mogadishu. Local Sources confirm that Al-Shabaab gunmen killed Abdullahi Abdi Mohamed, a member of the ‘justice’ ministry, and then left the scene safely. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the operation shortly after via the group’s propaganda media.
• On May 10^th, At least six people, including two senior police officers, were killed and six others injured in a suicide bombing that targeted a police station in Somalia, Mogadishu’s Waberi district.
• On May 10^th, Al-Shabaab militants ambush on KDF morning patrol team. The troops were on patrol duty outside a Border Post in Lamu, Lower Eastern Kenya (along border with Somalia). No soldier was wounded. Two enemy combatants were killed as per military source.
• On May 12^th, Al-Shabaab terror operatives attempt to destroy a telecommunication mast Afaat center near Tarbaj in Wajir, NEP Kenya (0400HRS EAT). Three militants were killed while one Kenya Police Reservist was killed and two others were wounded during counter operations.

AS Activities Week 3: May 14th – May 21st

• On May 17^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on AMISOM’s troops thwarted in the vicinity of Kismayo, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported in the botched raid.
• On May 18^th, Heavy explosion reported in Galkayo town, Central Somalia. Casualties feared. According to Somali police spokesman, Sadik Aden Ali, three suicide bombers who were on a motorcycle were planning to blow up themselves near a local hotel died in their own explosion.
• On May 18^th, Reports from the Lower Shabelle region that Al-Shabaab militants conducted a surprise attack on government troops as they were traveling on the outskirts of Warmaxan. at least three soldiers were killed and two others wounded in the ambush raid claimed by Al-Shabaab jihadists.
• On May 18^th, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants attacked a checkpoint set up by government forces on the road between Mogadishu and Balad. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On May 18^th, KDF soldiers on routine duties within Lamu County (Baure) encountered and Improvised Explosive Device (IED), reinforced with an ambush along the Bodhei – Kiunga Road. Army lost troops in the incident while others were injured.
• On May 19^th, At least four six Somali soldiers, including a commander, were been killed in an Al-Shabaab roadside bomb attack in vicinity of Jowhar town. Initial reports indicate that the blast targeted Middle Shabelle region governor Ahmed Meyre Makaran, who narrowly survived. One military vehicle destroyed. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On May 20^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a man identified as Cartan Waasuge inside Mogadishu’s Bakara market. Killers escape from the scene. The motive behind this killing still not known.
• On May 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Garasbaaleey blast. Local sources reports indicate that Al-Shabaab blast targeted Abdirahman Ahmed Garyare, Garasbaale district commissioner and three of his bodyguards.
• On May 21^st, 3 Kenya security operators while on a morning patrol mission were critically injured after their tactical vehicle rolled and got extensively damaged after it ran over a terrorists IED at Barashun area along the Banisa- Takaba road in Mandera East, NEP Kenya.

AS Activities Week 4: May 21^st – May 31^st

• On May 22^nd, At least 3 people were killed and 10 others were injured in heavy fighting between government forces and Al-Shabaab fighters in Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle.
• On May 26^th, SNA and Al-Shabaab clash in the outskirts of Mahaday and Raaga Elle districts of Middle Shabelle. No reports on casualties.
• On May 26^th, Al-Shabaab militants targets SNA soldiers with explosions in the vicinities of Jowhar and Biya Adde in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. At least 4 soldiers were killed and 8 others were wounded in the IED blast.
• On May 26^th, Al-Shabaab hits Bari Region Settlement with Mortar attack. Local reports from Galgala indicate that, at least 20 rounds of mortar shelling were heard. However, details on casualties not ascertained.
• On May 27^th, Attack on soldiers on the outskirts of Dhusamareb reported. Reports from the Galgadud region, central Somalia indicate a roadside attack on the outskirts of Dhusamareb killed at least six soldiers.
• On May 28^th, Al-Shabaab IED target a Khat market in Baidoa, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. Preliminary reports indicate that Three civilians were killed, and Thirteen others sustained injuries in the bomb explosion.
• On May 28^th, Somali National Army clashed with Al-Shabaab militants in Gallabashiir village in Middle Shabelle. Local reports indicate that both sides suffered casualties. SNA claimed to have killed at least 15 militants and destroying one of their camp.
• On May 29^th, Al-Shabaab claims responsibility for attack on KM4 junction. Al-Shabaab detailed a powerful explosion in Mogadishu’s KM4 junction in Hodan district that targeted a senior government police officer. The officer narrowly escaped the blast but three of his bodyguards were injured.
• On May 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed two landmine explosions that targeted Jubaland Security Forces (JSF). Two JSF vehicles were targeted by the militants while traveling traveling on the road between Afmadow and Qoqani area in Lower Juba region of Somalia. Casualties reported.
• On May 30^th, At least three SNA soldiers were killed when a landmine exploded on the outskirts of Janale district of Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On May 30^th, Al-Shabaab claimed on foreign military bases in Shalaambood, Afgoye and Qorlyooley areas, all in the Lower Shabelle region. No details on casualties.
• On May 30^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on a police station in Bar Sanguni, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No details on casualties.
• On May 30^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted SNA troops based in Yoontoow area of Lower Juba. Two soldiers killed as per the local sources.
• On May 30^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on Kenyan security positions in Wajir, northeastern prefectures of Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On May 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked government forces in the outskirts of Baidoa, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. Three soldiers killed as per local sources.
• On May 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attack Somali army troops in Lower Shabelle region. The ambush raid took place between Afgoye and Wallanweyn districts. Two security guards of the Afgoye commander were wounded in the attack and the Afgoye security chief narrowly escaped as per local sources.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Terrorist threat skewed towards security and defense outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. However, foreigners, including aid workers, and journalists are very likely to be targeted by jihadist militants and violent criminals throughout southern Somalia, even when they are escorted by armed guards in the capital, Mogadishu.

Al-Shabaab militants also engage in the extortion of businesses and development projects in the capital and typically assassinate business persons and damage property as a means of enforcement. Aviation operating from Aden Adde International Airport in Mogadishu has previously been targeted by person-borne IEDs. Similar threats targeting military convoys, FOBs and police stations in central and southern Somalia where the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has huge control cannot be ruled out.

Threat of IEDs related attacks remains high. Roads throughout Somalia are in poor condition as they are generally neither maintained nor lit at night and traffic lights are rare. As such, military convoys and driving can be a dangerous activity; it is advisable to avoid all road travel after nightfall. Additionally, landmines and IEDs are an ever-present danger.

On geopolitics, Somalia’s PM Mohamed Hussein Roble said he is committed to free, fair polls after impasse over elections resolved. The disagreements have caused concerns that clans could turn on each other and that the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency could exploit a security vacuum.

In Kenya, threat by Islamist Al-Shabaab remains unchanged in the counties bordering Somalia. However, attacks in other parts of the country, especially in the major towns with malls, traffic congestions, learning institutions besides on public service vehicles cannot be ruled out. There is imminent threat on Kenya citing the recent press release by Al-Shabaab where it stated that in the coming days that it will issue a communique to Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenya and his government regarding the presence of Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) in Somalia.

Entrance by the  Kenya  Defense  Forces  (KDF)  into  Somalia  was believed to be the major cause of the frequent terror attacks by the Al-Shabaab.  Another fact is that, destabilizing  Kenya  would  be  advantageous  to  the  Al-Shabaab from a political perspective because an unstable Kenya is the equivalent of an unstable East Africa, and that in mind, counterterrorism actors should not relent on countering Al-Shabaab insurgency.

Conclusion

 Al-Shabaab is a clear present and growing threat not only in the horn of Africa but well beyond the region. Its imminent following group’s several videos, calling on individuals from East Africa and beyond to join the Islamist terrorist group, thus correct to forecast that, it will be training terrorists in a growing scale in the coming years further multiplying threat in the region if not decisively countered.

Jihadist militant group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) will continue to hold significant territory in southern Somalia and have the ability to conduct mortar attacks and vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attacks and follow-up small-arms assaults in Mogadishu as has continually being witnessed in repeat attacks.

Hence, there must be a concerted effort in order to counter terrorist persistent activity and its aspirations in all sectors, including defensive military actions, humanitarian aid, public diplomacy and the use of other means of soft power.

The United Nations contends that the Al-Shabaab militant group still remain a major threat towards the ongoing process of promoting peace, stability, and development in Somalia and East Africa region at large, due to the fact that they can wage small to large scale sporadic attacks.