Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of June 1st – June 30th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen, popularly known Al-Shabab remains capable of carrying out massive attacks in Somalia and surrounding countries despite a long-running African Union offensive against the Islamist terrorist group. 

In the past 30 days, the Islamists militant group conducted at least 37 attacks from across different regions of Somalia and a few in Kenyan frontier counties. The attacks have notably ranged from low to large-scale.

There has been a surge in Al-Shabaab attacks in the month of June compared to the month of May that recorded at least 28 attacks. Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review.

Despite military and counterinsurgency interventions, Al-Shabaab threat has not completely been degraded as it is notable the group has persistently conducted a number of operations both in Kenya and in Somalia.

Al-Shabaab attacks have had profound adverse effects on the population, disrupting everyday life, affecting livelihoods and deepening the socio-economic woes of the frequently targeted regions/prefectures for both Kenya and Somalia.

AS Claimed Attacks (June 1^st – June 30^th)

Week 1:

• On June 2^nd, Al-Shabaab conducted a grenade attack on civilians at the Somali Star restaurant in downtown Kismayo, Lower Juba. Severely injured civilians were taken to Kismayo hospital.
• On June 2^nd, Al-Shabaab assassins gunned down two members of Somalia’s intelligence agency (NISA) in the capital Mogadishu.
• On June 3^rd, Major, Mohamed Abdiwahid, the Commander the 6th battalion of Somalia’s Turkish-trained special forces (Gorgor) was killed in a battle between SNA and terrorist group of Al-Shabab at Jalable village in Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab propaganda media reported to have killed 18 government soldiers.
• On June 4^th, Al-Shabaab claim attack on SNA military base in Warise and on the outskirts of Mahaday, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Four government soldiers killed in the mortar assault by the Al-Qaeda affiliated militants.
• On June 5^th, at least two people were killed and many more wounded when a suicide bomber targeted military personnel in the Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Local sources reported that the suicide bomber struck near a busy minibus station as he targeted troops preparing to cross a checkpoint fortified with concrete blocks and manned by security officers.

Week 2:

• On June 7^th, Somalia’s Al-Shabab militant group claim to have killed an African Union soldier from Uganda troops following an ambush attack in Lower Shabelle region.
• On June 8^th, Landmine explosion killed a police officer and wounded several others near Somali capital Mogadishu.
• On June 9^th, several people have been killed and as many injured in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, following a series of mortar shells in the vicinity of the president’s residence, as per local sources.
• On June 9^th, Reports of heavy fighting in Daynunay village after Al-Shabaab fighters attack on Somalia military base on the outskirt of Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. The militant’s propaganda media claimed that Al-Shabaab fighters killed three SNA soldiers and wounded several others.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab militias operating cells in Mandera, NEP Kenya ambushed two buses and the security escort vehicle between Olla and Sarman villages in northern Mandera. Casualties were reported.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM’s troops in Kolbio and Hosingow Lower Juba foiled. No casualties were reported.
• On June 9^th, Al-Shabaab attack AMISOM convoy transporting supplies between Danow and Shalaambood, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. The militants claimed to have destroyed the trucks.
• On June 10^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen storm homes of a senior government officers in Bardhere district of Gedo region, Somalia. The militants claimed responsibility of the attack saying its fighters had targeted homes of the two apostate soldiers.
• On June 12^th, Somali police ambushed in Mogadishu’s Wadajir district. Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed the police officers, killing two.
• On June 12^th, Al-Shabaab claim a low-scale attack on security forces on patrol in Kinto village of Mandera, NEP Kenya. No reports of casualties though Al-Shabaab exaggerated to have wounded three security officers.
• On June 12^th, Landmine explosion targeting UPDF soldiers serving under AMISOM was reported in the road between Shalaambood and Danow villages in the outskirt of Somalia’s Marka town, Lower Shabelle region. Locals say armored vehicle was destroyed in the attack.

Week 3:

• On June 12^th, reports from the Lower Shabelle region say that Al-Shabaab attempted probe on an AMISOM base in Maryan Gubay village was successfully thwarted.
• On June 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on AMISOM troops in Abdalla Birole area on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
• On June 14^th, A man wearing Somali military uniform was shot dead. The Somali government soldier identified as Adnan in Mogadishu’s Seybiyane neighborhood in Hodan district. Adnan was said to be bodyguard for senior military commander. The killers believed to be Al-Shabaab assassins escape from the shooting scene.
• On June 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked SNA and AMISOM-Ugandan troops on the road between Buufow and Number 60, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On June 15^th, at least 15 killed in Somalia suicide bombing claimed by Al-Shabaab militants. Initial reports indicate that the suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a checkpoint outside the General Degaban military training camp in Mogadishu. At least 10 new SNA recruits were killed and 20 others wounded as military source.
• On June 18^th, Massive explosion believed to be a Suicide vehicle borne explosive device (SVBIED) targeted Somali military Headquarters at Biyo Adde in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 10 SNA soldiers and injuring a military commander in the bombing.

Week 4:

• On June 19^th, a Somali police officer was killed in an attack by Al Shabaab militants near Nasrudin mosque in Howlwadag district in Mogadishu.
• On June 20^th, Reports of an IED explosion in Tre Piano area of Mogadishu. Shrapnel from the explosion caused damage to properties. Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted government officials. Casualties not yet known.
• On June 20^th, Somali government forces in Dinsor town, Bay region of Somalia claimed to have repulsed an overnight Al-Shabaab attack on their base, with two soldiers sustaining injuries. Officials further said they inflicted loses on the militants.
• On June 20^th, At Falama, Mandera NEP Kenya, Al-Shabaab terrorists hijacked a construction truck, kidnapped the driver and his crew (1 adult male) before torching and burning the truck.
• On June 21^st, five people died including two Al-Shabaab operatives in an early morning attack in Jabibar Lafey in Mandera County, after a lorry was attacked with bullets by Al-Shabaab militia. The driver of the ill-fated lorry and one passenger managed to escape with slight injuries as the lorry was shortly after torched.
• On June 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for man killed in Belet Weyne. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed Farah Abdi Garrun alias (Farah Diir) who was the governor of Hiran region for the Hir Shabelle administration.
• On June 26^th, Al-Shabaab in Somalia executed ten more people by firing squad on claims they were spying for CIA. The execution was conducted in a public square in town of Saakow, Middle Juba region of Somalia.
• On June 26^th, four people were injured in an Al-Shabaab claimed explosion at a coffee shop in Dolow town, Gedo region around 5pm local time, Saturday. Two of the victims including two workers at the shop sustained serious injuries as per corresponding local reports.
• On June 26^th, one soldier was killed and 2 others injured after a bomb explosion targeted his convoy in Balli Dhidhin vicinity, Bari region on Saturday. Both Al-Shabaab and IS operate in parts of the far East of Bari region.
• On June 26^th, Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing of the Yaqshid official identified as Omar Idris in a targeted attack.
• On June 27^th, Al-Shabaab car bomb targeted a police station in Marere town, Gedo region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed five officers and injured two others.
• On June 27^th, at least 20 people died in Al-Shabaab attack on Wisil town, Galmudug region. The militants detonated a VBIED near a security camp at the start of the attack. Heavy firefight ensued as regional forces managed to repulse the militants.
• On June 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed killing two local officials in Kudhaa island, South of Kismayo, Lower Juba after raiding their homes but Jubaland officials say the victims were innocent elders.
• On June 29^th, Somalia-born British national, Ibrahim Magag, among 5 men executed by Al-Shabaab firing squad in Jilib town, Middle Juba region of Somalia on claims of spying for security forces and intelligence operators.
• On June 30^th, Al-Shabaab claim to have attacked AMISOM-Burundian troops in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region in two raids. The attacks left at least four soldiers wounded in Mahaday and Biya adde military bases as per AS claim.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threat heavily skewed towards security and defense outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. However, civilians plying public service vehicles, foreigners, including aid workers, construction workers and journalists are very likely to be targeted by jihadist militants in both countries.

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab is a dangerous enemy that presents a threat to Somalia and broader East Africa countries, especially Kenya Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab routinely and persistently attacks Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys, their military bases as well as public vehicles as it has been witnessed in recent attacks in NEP Kenya.

Kenya counties of Wajir, Mandera, and Garissa counties along with Lamu which is along the coastal strip have sporadically suffered losses in the persistent Al-Shabaab war, with the militants targeting security forces as well as non-locals.

Al-Shabaab basically is active in its home-base of Somalia and stages retaliatory attacks sporadically in Kenya. With Islamic State extending provinces in Central Africa and possibly eyeing Tanzania and Uganda, Al-Shabaab is highly treated by its rival encroachment. As such the militant group is desperate to recruit members within it fold, besides scaling up attacks citing the aforementioned encroachment by Islamic State allied faction in East and Central Africa (IS-Somalia, IS in Mozambique and in DR Congo) that is fast appealing to jihadists in the region.

Threat of IEDs related attacks remains high in Somalia and also in Kenya. However, roads throughout Somalia are in poor condition as they are generally neither maintained nor lit at night and traffic lights are rare and thus, military convoys and driving can be a dangerous activity; it is advisable to avoid all road travel after nightfall. Additionally, landmines and IEDs are an ever-present danger. Ambush attacks reinforced with gunfire also fast gaining traction from across the regions of Somalia, citing thick vegetation which the militants constantly exploit.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab is full of accomplished insurgents, and to ensure the group does not begin to regain traction, the coalition needs to mount a disciplined and coherent counterinsurgency campaign in support of the weak Federal Government of Somalia.

Thus, its primary goals of security and intelligence assets in the region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas.

The United Nations contends that the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab militant group still remain a major threat towards the ongoing process of promoting peace, stability, and development in Somalia and East Africa region at large, due to the fact that they can wage small to large scale sporadic attacks.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity. 

The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Thus, Joint CT and COIN operators should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region