Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of December 1st – December 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in East Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities sharply continue to surge with at least one to four attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for central regions of Somalia.

Al-Shabaab has proven time and time again that it remains highly resilient and adaptive to counterterrorism pressure and able to embarrass the Somali government and prove to Somalis that both the government and security forces are unable to protect them. The challenge posed by Al-Shabaab is set against the backdrop of deteriorating conditions across Somalia, challenges that go beyond the security realm. This includes severe drought and growing food insecurity, with the country now facing a disastrous famine.

In the first two weeks of December, at least 38 attacks have been recorded. The first week, at least 17 operations were recorded while on the second week under review at least 21 attacks have been recorded. In the last two weeks of December, Al-Shabaab claimed at least 21 attacks. A notable decrease as compared to the first two weeks. At least 63. attacks were recorded for the month under review with a notable slight decrease in attacks as compared to the month of November where over 67 attacks were recorded.

Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Hiran, Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu. A few operations recorded in Mandera and Lamu prefectures of Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab. 

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise even in the coming days and as such all concerned counterterrorism assets in Kenya and Somalia to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia exploiting the drought and hunger situation. 

Terrorism Events: December 1^st – December 14^th

• On December 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces After Repelling Two Attacks Between Ali Gaduud Town, Middle Shabelle Region, South Somalia.
• On December 14^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Two Somalian and Kenyan Positions in Wajid Town and Hozingow Town, Bakool and Juba Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On December 14^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Nine Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Training Camp in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Nine Somalian Forces and Destroyed a Military Vehicle in 3 IED Attacks.
• On December 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Forces Position in Zabid Town, Afgoye Town, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 12^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed a civilian vehicle in Mandera County, NEP Kenya. The militants attacked a vehicle between Jabibar and Bamboo in Mandera North killing at least two people.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Position in Singler District, Kismayo Town, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Jowhar airport manager with a roadside improvised explosive device near Hanshooley, Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed the explosion also killed a bodyguard and wounded several others.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Injured at Least a Somalian Forces Element in an IED Attack on a Foot Patrol in Afgoye Town, Lower Shabelle Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Two Others in an Ambush in Mahdai Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces and Injured Three Others in an Ambush in Adam Yabal Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Colonel’s Military Vehicle Killing and Injuring Those on Board in an IED Attack Near Adam Yabal Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Three Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Checkpoint in Galwin District, Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer, Salad Alai, in Denili, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Temporarily Seized Ghobo Town After an Attack on a Military Base That Led to the Escape of Forces in Mahas Town, Hiran Region.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Three Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Checkpoint in Galowin District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Djiboutian Military Base in Dhuusamareeb Town Airport, Galgaduud Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Gedo regional National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) chief along the road between Luuq and Dolow towns in the Gedo region, southwestern Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Seized Control Over Berhani Town, 25 kms From Beledweyne Town, After Attacking a Military Base, Hiran Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured 6 Somalian Forces, Including Three Officers in an Ambush in Ali Gaduud, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Somalian Special Forces Vehicle Killing and Injuring Those on Board with an IED in Kismayo Town, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Gathering with an IED in Adam Yabal Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Somalia – 6 December 2022.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab Seized Control Over al-Furqan District in Ali Gaduud Town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab mortared Puntland Region forces in Galgala, Bari region, northern Somalia.
• On December 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in an Ambush Near Labgars District, Kismayo Town, Juba Region, Somalia.
• On December 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an Ambush in Yanbis District, Garissa, NEP Kenya.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Military Base in Janale Town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Officer, Muhammad Khayr, in an IED Attack in Dinsoor Town, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated Two Somalian Forces in Madina and Dar al-Salam Districts, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces and Seized a Kalashnikov and Military Equipment in an Ambush in Qoryorey Town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Kenyan and Somalian Military Bases in Mandera, Northeastern Kenya and in Janale, Kalbio and Labgars in Kismayo, Lower Shabelle and Juba Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Somalian Forces Convoy Killing and Injuring Several in New Hawa District, Maqkari Town, Hiran Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 2^nd, Al-Shabaab: Balaad Mayor, Qassem Fardaq, Survived an Assassination Attempt and Several of His Guards Were Killed and Injured in Sous Crossroads, Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed African and Somalian Forces in Harwa, Denili and Bidoa, Banadir, Bay and Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al-Shabaab Injured at Least Two Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Foot Patrol in Tabilha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Two Somalian Military Bases in Gufgaduud Bori Town in Bidoa Town and in Zabid in Afgoyee Town, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions, Southern Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al Shabaab militants cleared local clan militia forces from Daynunay, Baidoa district, Bay region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed 17 militiamen and wounded 19 more.
• On December 1^st, Al -Shabaab militants launched a complex ambush attack on SNA forces near Nur Dugle, Adan Yabaal district, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. The militants used at least one improvised explosive device and claimed to kill 14 SNA soldiers.

Terrorism Events: December 14^th – December 31^st

• On December 16^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian, Ugandan and Kenyan Forces in Kahda, Arbao and Afgoye, Mogadishu in Somalia and in Alonaghi District, Lafey, Mandera in Kenya.
• On December 16^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Forces in Dinonai Town Seizing the Town, Baidoa Town, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 19^th, Al-Shabaab Killed 4 Somalian Forces, injured 6 Others and Seized Weapons and Ammunition in an Attack on Targanti Town, Baldawin, Hiran, Somalia.
• On December 21st, Terrorism Incident reported in Garissa County , NEP Kenya (Hayley Bura East). Al-Shabāab al-Mujāhideen terror group targeted a police vehicle by a reinforced ambush type attack ( detonation of an R-IED & subsequent firing of RPG on target). Vehicle destroyed & casualties reported.
• On December 21^st, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Ugandan Forces in Two Attacks on Their Military Bases in Shalanboud and Dano, in Qoryorey, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 21^st, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Harwa Official, Harsi Muhammad Ali, in Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Major, Ahmed Deri Ado, in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush attacks on Somalian Forces in Sina Daqo District, Galgaduud, Somalia reporting casualties.
• On December 22^nd, Al-Shabaab Injured Five Guards of Harshebili Official and Destroyed a Military Vehicle in an IED Attack Near al-Kawthar Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 23^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Ugandan and Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in Qoryorey Town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 24^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Two Somalian Military Bases in Afoye town of Lower Shabelle, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 25^th, Al-Shabaab Killed the Deputy of Somalian Forces Commander, Officer Muhammad Akgalaa, and Injured Another in an Ambush in Kawthar Town, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 25^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Five Somalian Forces and Injured Others in Clashes in Maqkari Town, Hiran Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 26^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Kenyan Forces in Ariba, Canton and Gabi, Mandera and Wajir, Northeastern Kenya.
• On December 27^th, A  l-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Forces’ Position in Singler District, Kismayo Town, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 27^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Ugandan Forces, Injured Six Others and Destroyed a Military Vehicle in an IED Attack in 60 KM District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 28^th, Al-Shabaab Repelled Two Ethiopian and Somalian Forces Attacks in Dinsoor, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 28^th, Al-Shabaab Seized “Goufgdoud Bori” Town After Attacking a Military Base in the Town, Baidoa town, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 28^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Special Forces and Destroyed Their Military Vehicle in an IED Attack in Afgoye town, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 30th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Checkpoint With an IED in Luuq City, Gedo State, Southern Somalia.
• On December 30th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed an Ugandan and an Ethiopian Military Bases in Dinsoor and Janali, Bay and Lower Shabelle States, Southern Somalia.
• On December 31st, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Member of the Somalian Parliament Committee in Baidoa City, Bay State, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 31st, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Kenyan Forces’ Vehicle and Killed and Injured Those on Board in an Ambush Between Witu and Pandanguo towns, Lamu, Kenya.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The frequency of Al-Shabaab terrorist attacks within theaters in Somalia and Kenya prefectures bordering with Somalia has been alarming. In Somalia an average of two attacks have been recorded on daily basis.

The return of US airstrikes will be a big relief in war against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. The resumption of airstrikes in Somalia would be key towards disrupting Al-Shabaab much increased activity; movements and buildup from across the regions of central and southern Somalia besides border prefectures with Kenya.

As the joint offensives continue across much of central Somalia and in southern Somalia – it is important for the Somali forces to not only continue to clear villages and towns from the jihadist group, but organize efforts to effectively hold the liberated locales. Other areas of Somalia, as well as regional states, should also join and support the large-scale counter-offensive in order to prevent Shabaab from retreating, regrouping, and forming new strongholds elsewhere.

During the month under review, the enemy intensified her activities, notably movements and establishment of concentration camps. There has been a build-up of AS in the sub-sectors of central and southern Somalia and the enemy has adopted an attack posture. Therefore, there is a high probability that AS will continue to stage attacks on SNA and ATMIS patrols/camps in both deep and close ops in the aforementioned parts, a trend that is to continue. Troops are advised to maintain an offensive posture.

Conclusion

The capture of territories from Al-Shabaab has emboldened Somalis and the international community that the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group can be defeated. Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Concerted CT efforts from all concerned actors/partners much encouraged.

Al-Shabaab is full of accomplished insurgents, and to ensure the group does not begin to regain traction, the coalition/CT operators need to mount and scaleup a disciplined and coherent counterinsurgency campaign in support of the weak Federal Government of Somalia and also stem down persistent attack trends witnessed in Kenya’s NEP counties (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa and Coastal Lamu county.

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.