Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st June – 30th June, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary:

During the month of June 2023, the Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist organization Harakat Al-Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM) carried out dozens in attacks across countries in the East African region. Compared to the previous month, there was a notable increase in the frequency and intensity of attacks, indicating an escalation of their activities. The affected countries majorly include Somalia and Kenya. Regions prone to attacks notably being Juba, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Gedo and Bay in Somalia. Surge in attacks continue to be reported in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Kenya’s frontier counties of Mandera, Garissa and Wajir experienced sporadic low-scale attacks. Repeat attacks also reported in Lamu county of Kenya. These regions experienced repeated attacks, demonstrating the group’s capability to sustain coordinated and targeted operations.

In Somalia, Al-Shabaab executed several attacks targeting military bases – FOBs, checkpoints, and gatherings of Somalian and ATMIS forces. Notably, they successfully ambushed three Ugandan military bases in Barawi, Qoryoley, and Dinsoor Cities, as well as two Somalian military operating bases in Afgoyee and Dinsoor Cities. The surge attacks in these regions indicate a strategic focus on disrupting African Union peacekeeping efforts and security operations by targeting regional military forces.

Somalia’s region of Gedo near border with Ethiopia also experienced a number of attacks, including ambushes on military bases and targeted killings of security personnel. The use of SVBIEDs indicates the group’s intention to inflict significant casualties and damage strategic targets.

In Kenya, Al-Shabaab intensified their assaults targeting military, police, security checkpoints, and civilian targets in Lamu County and in NEP counties of Kenya. The surge in attacks involved ambushes on Kenyan military convoys and targeted killings of security forces. In addition, the Islamist terrorist group executed a devastating attack on a civilian bus between Olla and Lanfin, resulting in fatalities and injuries. The repeated attacks in Lamu County underscore the susceptibility of the region to terrorist persistent violence.

The surge in Al-Shabaab attacks during the month of June 2023 cannot be over-emphasized; rather poses a significant security challenge to the affected countries and the broader East African region. The continued targeting of military installations and personnel, as well as civilian targets, demonstrates the terrorist group’s adaptability and resilience. Besides, international cooperation and intelligence sharing are crucial components in effectively combating the rising terrorist group’s activities and restoring stability in the region.

Notably, the regions mostly with repeat attacks and persistently prone should be closely monitored for potential further attacks, and robust counter-terrorism measures should be implemented to address the growing threat posed by Al-Shabaab now the terrorist group has recruited and trained approximately 5,000 new jihadists in 2023 which now puts its strength at 17,000 men. A new brigade of Special Forces/inghimasi/Katibat al-Istishhadiyyin also graduated. The Al-Qāeda branch in Somalia Harakat al-Shabāab al-Mujāhidīn new graduation of a new Brigade in its propaganda wing dubs the largest drill in its history as Al-Qaeda’s affiliate attempt to replicate its Taliban strategy in Afghanistan in Somalia.

Terrorist Events: 1^st June – 30^th June

• 30^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab briefly seized Daru Ni’ma village, Adan Yabal district, Middle Shabelle region, central Somalia. Destroyed the local mosque, water well, and military base.
• 26^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab executed five spies who worked for the American and Somalian intelligence in Fafahdun City, Gedo, Southwestern Somalia.
• 26^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Ugandan and Somalian forces in Barawi, Borali, and Afgoyee, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 25^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Somalian forces in two IED attacks in Kahda District, Mogadishu, as well as in an IED attack on a military barrack in Dharkenley District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 25^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab injured an Afgoyee official, Abdel Qader Saeed Ali, along with his guards with an IED in Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 25^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab shelled Halni Military Base and Mogadishu International Airport with missiles, leading to damages and the suspension of air traffic in Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 25^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Juhudi Village, killing 6 Christians and setting 10 of their houses on fire, in retaliation for the Kenyan shelling of Juba in Somalia, between Mpeketoni and Mombasa Towns, Lamu, Kenya.
• 24^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab detonated several improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting civilians near Barire, Awdheegle district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. IED blasts destroyed a motorcycle, killed 5 civilians and wounded 15 others.
• 23^rd June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Ugandan forces in ambushes on three military bases in Barawe City, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 23^rd June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed two Somalian forces in an IED attack on their gathering in Janale, Lower Shabelle, and targeted a Somalian military barrack with an IED in Tabliha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 22^nd June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Kenyan military base, killing and injuring several in Gabi Town, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• 22^nd June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Ugandan and Kenyan military bases in Afgoyee, Dano, and Buale Cities, Lower Shabelle and Juba, Southern Somalia.
• 22^nd June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed a Somalian Special Forces soldier and injured two others in an IED attack on a foot patrol in Galaad City, Galgaduud, Somalia.
• 21^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab detonated two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) targeting a joint Somali National Army-Ethiopian military base in Bardhere, Gedo region. 8 civilians killed and 19 others wounded as per local sources.
• 21^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab: A Somalian Special Police Officer survived an assassination attempt that killed one of his guards and injured four others in an IED attack that targeted his military vehicle in Trichy District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 21^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab assassinated a Wardigley Criminal Research Department official named Officer Mahmoud in Wardigley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 21^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab assassinated a Dharkenley official named Muhammad Abdi Ahmed in Dharkenley District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 21^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured seventeen Somalian forces in an IED attack on their military checkpoint in Barire Town, Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab injured two Somalian forces in an IED attack on their gathering in Afgoyee City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab injured at least three Somalian forces in an IED attack on a military checkpoint in Jowhar City, Middle Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted a Ugandan military convoy with two IEDs, the first targeted a foot patrol and the second targeted a military tank, between Shalambood and Dano in Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Ugandan and Somalian forces in ambushes on military bases in Qoryoley and Janale Cities, Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab injured at least a Somalian forces element in an ambush on a military checkpoint in Berdale City, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
• 20^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed twelve Danab soldiers and injured eighteen others, including an officer, while repelling an attack in “Yaqdabil” District, Kismayo City, Juba State, South Somalia.
• 19^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed three Somalian, Ethiopian, and Ugandan military bases in Wajid town and in Barire and Zabid Towns in Afgoyee City, Bakool and Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed twenty-five Kenyan forces, injured three others, and destroyed a military tank and a vehicle with two IEDs between Pandanguo and Witu in Lamu, Kenya.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab seized control over Qalimow Town on the road between Mogadishu and Jowhar after attacking a military base in town, Middle Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Somalian and Ugandan forces in ambushes in Janale and Afgoyee Cities, Dano, Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed at least a Somalian forces element in an ambush on a military base in Bidoa City in addition to ambushing Ethiopian and Somalian military bases in Mayafolka, Bidoa, and Dinsoor, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab’s double-tap killed 3 in Guba, Mandera County, Kenya.
• 18^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab abducted 30 clan elders and children in Daru Na’im, El Dheere district, Galgudud region, north-central Somalia.
• 17^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab conducted five attacks on Ethiopian, Ugandan, and Somalian military bases in Dinsoor and Barawe Cities and in Gufgaduudbori Town, 60 kms, and Boroli, Bay and Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 17^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed ten Kenyan forces, injured five others, and destroyed their military vehicle in an IED attack and an ambush on a Kenyan convoy near Mararani Town, Lamu, Kenya.
• 16^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured four Ugandan forces with an IED between Golweyn and Dano Town, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 16^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Ugandan forces in attacks on three Ugandan and Somalian military bases in Buulomareer, Shalanbood, and Janaale Cities in Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab court ruled the execution of five “spies” who worked for the American and Somalian intelligence agencies in Konyabro City, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed six Ugandan and Somalian military bases in Barawe, Qoryoley, and Dinsoor Cities, and in Zabid Town, Afgoyee City, Boroli District, Barawe, Lower Shabelle, and Bay, Southern Somalia.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted a Ugandan foot patrol with three IEDs, killing and injuring several on the road between Golweyn and Dano, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed at least a Kenyan soldier in an ambush on a Kenyan military base in Dagadi District, Garissa, Kenya.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Kenyan military base, killing and injuring several forces in Mangai Town, Lamu, Kenya.
• 15^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab destroyed a Kenyan military vehicle and killed those on board in an ambush and bombing (IED) near Mararani District, Lamu, Kenya.
• 15^th June 2023: 25 soldiers killed by two Al-Shabaab roadside IEDs on the A7 between Pandanguo and Witu, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 14^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab conducted a stop-and-search operation on a bus looking for non-locals in Bore, Wajir County, Kenya.
• 14^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab IED detonates, killing 8 police officers in Garissa County, Kenya.
• 14^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Somalian and Ugandan forces in ambushes on military bases in Janale and Qoryoley Cities, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• 14^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed two Kenyan military bases in Kotolu and Eil Qalo, Wajir and Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• 14^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed five Somalian Special Forces, injured seven others, and destroyed a military vehicle with an IED in Dar al-Salam, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 13^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed ten Kenyan forces, destroyed their military vehicle, and seized a Pika, an M16 weapon, four Kalashnikovs, and ammunition in an ambush between Egari and Singhalo Districts, Lamu, Kenya.
• 13^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed four military bases in Afgoyee and Dinsoor Cities and in Gufgaduud Bori in Bidoa City, Lower Shabelle, and Bay, Southern Somalia.
• 13^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed two Ugandan soldiers in an attack on a military base in Golweyn Town, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed a Harmad Somalian Special Forces First Lieutenant Officer named Naseb Taher Abdi and injured another Lieutenant named Souli in an IED attack on their vehicle in Zoobe Junction, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 12^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab severely injured a Danab Special Forces Captain and seized his weapon in Wadajir District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 12^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured Somalian and Ugandan forces in ambushes on military bases in Wajid and El Barde Cities and in Golweyn and Zabid Towns, and Buralo District, Bakool and Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed an ATMIS-Ugandan forces explosives’ expert with an IED in Golweyn Town, Lower Shabelle, Southern Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab attacked a Somalian and Ugandan military operating base in Qoryooley and Shalanbood, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed three Somalian forces in an IED attack on their gathering and two days ago injured two others in an ambush in Zabid Town, Afgoyee, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed a high-ranking officer who works for the Somalian intelligence and security unit named Hasan Ali Bayatoni and injured three of his guards in an IED attack on his vehicle in Marka (Merca), Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed two Somalian forces and injured three others in two IED attacks in Afgoyee and Janale, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Kenyan forces, killing and injuring several and destroying their vehicle in Wilmaro District, Fafi, Garissa, Northeastern Kenya.
• 11^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Kenyan military convoy, killing and injuring several and destroying a vehicle between Milimani and Kiunga Towns, Lamu, Kenya.
• 9^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab court executed five “spies” in Tayeglo District who worked for the American, Ethiopian, and Somalian intelligence, Bakool, Southwestern Somalia.
• 9^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Ethiopian, Ugandan, and Somalian military bases in Afgoyee and Dinsoor Cities and in Barire and Zabid Towns, Lower Shabelle and Bay States, Somalia.
• 9^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed six Somalian Special Forces, injured eight others, and destroyed their vehicle in an IED attack in Galaad City, Galgaduud, Somalia.
• 9^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab attacked and seized control of Pearl Beach Hotel with IED and gunfire in Lido Beach, Abdiaziz District, Mogadishu, Somalia.

• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab shelled a Ugandan military base, causing casualties and the escape of forces in Jaylawen Town, near Buulo Mareer, in Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured five Somalian forces in an IED attack on a gathering in Bulobarde City, Hiran, Somalia.
• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed three Kenyan forces, injured seven others, and destroyed their military tank in an IED attack between Olunga and Ail Qalo Districts, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Somalian military base in Dinsoor City, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed four Kenyan forces, injured ten others, and destroyed their convoy in an IED attack on the road between Mararani and Lamu, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 7^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed an Ethiopian military base, killing and injuring several forces in Luuq, Gedo, Somalia.
• 6^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed two Kenyan forces and injured three others in an IED attack on a vehicle between Kiunga and Ishakani Districts, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 6^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed a Somalian forces intelligence officer in an IED attack in Kuntuwarey District, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
• 6^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured several Somalian and Ethiopian forces in attacks on military bases in Janale and Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 5^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed two Ugandan military bases in Barawe and Bilibili Cities, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• 5^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab injured a Kenyan forces element in an IED attack on a vehicle between Ras Kamboni and Kiunga, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 5^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab ambushed Ethiopian and Somalian military bases in Doble City, Gedo, Somalia.
• 5^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted a Kenyan military base with an IED and gunfire, killing and injuring several forces near Ishakani District, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 4^th June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed three Kenyan police reservists and injured four others in an IED attack and gunfire between Mararani and Kiunga Towns, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 3^rd June 2023: Al-Shabaab attacked and seized control of Bardhere City after clashing with Ethiopian and Somalian forces in Gedo, Southern Somalia.
• 3^rd June 2023: Al-Shabaab killed and injured several Ethiopian and Somalian forces in attacks on military bases in Bardhere City, Gedo, Somalia.
• 2^nd June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted an Ethiopian military convoy with an IED and gunfire, killing and injuring several forces near Luuq, Gedo, Somalia.
• 2^nd June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted a Kenyan military base with two IEDs, killing and injuring several forces between Ishakani and Ras Kamboni, Lamu County, Kenya.
• 1^st June 2023: Al-Shabaab targeted a Kenyan military base with an IED, killing and injuring several forces in Ishakani District, Lamu County, Kenya.

Analysis

In the month under review, the Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist organization Harakat Al-Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM) intensified its attacks across rural and urban localities of Somalia and also in Kenya border counties with Somalia demonstrating a significant escalation in their activities. The surge in these attacks, compared to the previous month, indicates the group’s determination to cause widespread chaos and instability.

The Islamists Al-Shabaab targeted military operating bases, police, security checkpoints, and civilian areas, showcasing their flexibility and capability to sustain coordinated and targeted operations. The affected countries, experienced repeated attacks in regions known for their susceptibility to terrorist violence. The strategic focus on disrupting African Union peacekeeping (ATMIS) efforts and security operations in the region underscores a grave security challenge that demands immediate attention and coordinated counterterrorism efforts.

Observations & Insights

1. Strategic Targeting: Al-Shabaab’s attacks on Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and AU peacekeeping forces in Somalia and Kenya security assets reflect their strategic resolve to weaken regional security forces. By repeatedly ambushing and targeting these installations, the terrorist group aims to destabilize the region’s capability to combat their operations swiftly.
2. The Cross-Border Operations: Al-Shabaab’s ability to launch attacks in multiple countries, including Somalia and Kenya, highlights their cross-border capabilities. The terrorist group’s mobility and operational reach pose a significant challenge for regional security forces, necessitating coordinated counter-terrorism efforts to stem down these terror assaults and activities.
3. The Use of IEDs and SVBIEDs: The frequent use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) in their attacks indicates Al-Shabaab’s intent to inflict significant casualties and maximize damage to strategic targets. Their utilization of such tactics underscores the need for enhanced intelligence gathering and counter-terrorism measures.
4. Targeting Civilian Areas: Al-Shabaab’s attacks on civilian areas, as seen in the devastating attack on a civilian bus in Kenya’s NEP, clearly demonstrates their disregard for civilian lives and their intention to spread fear and insecurity. Protecting civilian populations must be a paramount priority in any counter-terrorism strategy.
5. Propaganda and Recruitment: Al-Shabaab’s continued ability to carry out attacks and evade capture may contribute to their propaganda efforts and recruitment activities through their propaganda media, the Al-Kataib Foundation. The terrorist group continue to exploit these attacks via propaganda videos to attract new members and gain financial support, necessitating targeted efforts to counter their narrative.

Recommendations

1. Enhanced Intelligence Sharing: East African countries should prioritize intelligence sharing to thwart potential attacks and disrupt Al-Shabaab’s networks, plans and operations. A coordinated effort among regional intelligence community and international partners can help identify terrorist networks and preempt threat they pose.
2. Strengthening Border Security: Given Al-Shabaab’s cross-border activities, countries should enhance border security and cooperation to prevent the movement of terrorists and illicit goods. Joint patrols and intelligence exchanges can bolster efforts to control porous borders.
3. The Community Engagement and Countering Radicalization: Engaging local communities to counter radicalization is critical. Governments and NGOs should develop programs that address socio-economic grievances and offer alternative paths for vulnerable individuals especially the unemployed youths susceptible to extremist ideologies.
4. Disrupting Financing Networks: The regional financial intelligence assets should collaborate to track and disrupt terrorist financing networks. By cutting off Al-Shabaab’s funding sources, they will weaken their operational capabilities and hamper their expansion.
5. Strengthening Security Forces: By enhancing the training, equipment, and capabilities of the regional security forces is vital to effectively combat Al-Shabaab’s activities. By having joint military exercises and capacity-building initiatives to enhance the response to terrorist threats.

Conclusion

It’s with no doubt Al-Shabaab’s persistent attacks in East African countries especially Somalia and Kenya and the broader region pose a significant security challenge. The surge and escalations in attacks, coupled with the group’s strategic targeting, cross-border operations, and use of IEDs and SVBIEDs, clearly highlights the need for a comprehensive and coordinated, multi-faceted counter-terrorism approach. Strengthened intelligence sharing, enhanced border security and patrols, community engagement (HUMINT), financial network disruptions, and bolstering of security assets will be key in effectively and swiftly responding to Al-Shabaab’s threats besides restoring stability in East Africa. Regional cooperation and international support also crucial, playing role in mitigating the terrorist group’s activities and preserving peace in the region.