Midweek East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of August 21st – August 25th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group in East Africa, Al-Shabaab’s continued purge targeting Somalia local and foreign forces are indication of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa.

 The Islamist militant group has been waging an insurgency persistently in the Horn of Africa country for about 14 years now. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.

The tempo of Al-Shabaab’s military operations in in the Horn of Africa Somalia has steadily increased and widely been promoted by the group’s various propaganda channels. The militant group has show cased in videos and infographics its ability to consistently strike on well-fortified military base defended by local army and foreign troops’ Forward Operating Bases (FOBs). Senior military and government officials also remain prime targets of Al-Shabaab. Civilian casualties also continue to be caught in the enemy crossfire.

Though the Somali armed group Al-Shabaab has lost key towns in central and southern regions to the country’s army forces and African Union Forces (AMISOM), they still hold large swathes in the region where they continue to attacks targeting the coalition forces’ bases and convoys.

In about five past days, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least a number of attacks all in Somalia as recorded below. No attack has so far reported on Kenya frontier counties/regions. Kenyan CT-assets should remain vigilant, increase on patrols, scouts around the perimeters of their defense posts as well as capitalize on surveillance to detect any possible enemy movements close to the country’s volatile border with Somalia. Its notable of militant’s upscaled IEDs, SVBIEDs and roadsides attacks especially in the capital Mogadishu which has recorded over dozen attacks in recent days with rising fatalities.

Recently Claimed Attacks (August 21^st – August 25^th)

• On August 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush attack on AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Halgan, Hiran region of Somalia. The militants have persistently targeted this Forward Operating Base (FOB) severally.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have publicly executed four men in Gedo region of Somalia on accusation of spying for Somalia government, US and AMISOM.
• On August 23^rd, Yaqshid District Commissioner Muse Gesey survives a bomb attack in Mogadishu’s Abdulaziz distict. Initial reports indicate that the explosion left at least two dead and three others wounded. Muse escaped another attack claimed by Al-Shabaab some weeks ago.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have stormed an AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in the outskirts of Marka town, area 60 in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On August 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed another separate ambush attack on SNA base in Barire area of Lower Shabelle.
• On August 23^rd, At least two people were killed and several others wounded after an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded in Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that the explosion occurred at the entrance of a busy market. Its possible a government military base located adjacent to the market was the likely target.
• On August 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack that targeted SNA troops in Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that one official of the South West Administration was wounded alongside two of his body guards in a landmine explosion.
• On August 25^th, A clan elder is reported to have been shot and killed in Wadajir district of Mogadishu on Tuesday morning by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen. The elder whose name has been released as Sheikh Ali Mohamed Osman was shot by armed assailant with AK47 several times in the head near his shop.

CT – Interventions

As the group escalated attacks in various towns, localities and broadly in regions of Somalia, especially, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Mogadishu, Bay and Hiran regions. The militant’s media wing continues to champion the group’s agenda by hurriedly amplifying the group’s successes in theater, counterterrorism operators have also mounted formidable pressure in the Islamist militants curtailing their operations significantly.

In the past few days, the CT – operators have been able to conduct a number of successful counter raids on Al-Shabaab’s positions and hideouts.

• US drone strike killed a high raking Al-Shabaab bomb maker near southwestern town of Kurtunwarey. AFRICOM confirmed of the airstrike and noted that the targeted was working to place improvised explosive device (IED) on a public road near Kurtunwarey at the time of the airstrike.
• The development comes at a time the Islamist militant group is trying to retake the strategic town of Kurtunwarey that was recently recaptured by SNA backed by AMISOM in an operation that saw 33 children rescued.
• In another operation, US-trained Danab forces killed three Al-Shabaab militants in El-Gellow in a special intelligence-led operation conducted in Middle Shabelle on August 23^rd.
• During the operation, three terror operatives were neutralized and a couple of landmines planted on a road frequently used by security forces successfully defused.
• On August 22^nd, Puntland forces killed 10 Al-Shabaab militants in another intelligence-led operation in the outskirts of Bosaso town in the mountainous northern part of Bari region.
• Somali army forces have killed a senior Al-Shabaab commander and several militants after launching a coordinated raid on a place, where the group was holding a meeting in Daru-Salam area in Lower Shabelle region, according to army radio, citing Danab commander Gen Ismail Abdimalik.
• The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) confirmed that an airstrike conducted against Al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Saakow, Middle Juba region of Somalia on Tuesday, August 25, targeted a senior Al-Shabaab commander, and one militant was killed in the strike. AFRICOM assessed that no civilians were killed or injured in the strike.

Its notable of the steady number of attacks especially over the weekend. As the terror events continue to be recorded daily, it’s also of concern of increased sponsored militant’s conferences, schools and gatherings that are undoubtedly turning out to be ground for Al-Shabaab’s indoctrination and recruitment drives. Besides, Al-Shabaab is using these platforms to preach against collaboration with local and foreign forces as well as championing their twisted ideology as witnessed in this week, where Al-Shabaab officials delivered a religious sermon at a mosque in Goofgaduud, Bay region reminding locals of the dangers of Ethiopian and allied coalition forces.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and assesses of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend is not getting any better and the curve is on upward trajectory and if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.