Midweek Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 4th – September 8th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted the Horn of Africa, Somalia with those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the country is battling in containing the global coronavirus pandemic.

In the past couple of weeks increased militant’s activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia.  Attacks have been concentrated over the weekend in Mudug, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba and in the capital Mogadishu. The attacks trend /pattern shows that the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia targeting local and foreign troops. However, civilians have indiscriminately been caught up in the enemy attacks.

In Mudug region of central Somalia, Al-Shabaab has clashed at least twice with villagers and pro-government vigilantes in Shabeelow village where the militants wanted to take away their livestock. Locals, led by elders have vowed not to yield to Al-Shabaab pressure and intimidation saying they will continue engaging Al-Shabaab in self-defense and in protection of their livestock.

In the last five days, the Islamist militant group has claimed at least 14 attacks from across the regions of Somalia. No major terror event has been reported in Kenya, which is also a target of Al-Shabaab, though Kenyan counterterrorism assets urged to maintain vigilance especially in upper and lower NEP counties where militants’ movements and sightings have been reported in a number of times.       

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 4^th – September 8^th)

• On September 4^th, heavy fighting reported in Mudug region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack on Galmudug administration forces in Baadweyne area using heavy artillery. Pro-Al-Shabab media claimed responsibility of the attack saying their fighters killed 15 security forces and wounded 8 others.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack at the airport of Dhusamareb, the capital of the Galmudug state, central Somalia on Friday evening. Reports indicate that Djibouti troops serving under African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) who were the targeted of the surprise ambush raid successfully repulsed the attack, engaging the Al-Qaeda affiliated militants for at least 15 minutes (Local sources reports). No casualties were reported on AMISOM side.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab targeted joint US and Somali troops in Lower Juba region with remote controlled explosive device (RCIED).
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have staged attacks in Sabiid and Anole villages near Afgoye (Lower Shabelle). Attacks were repulsed according to Somali military sources saying they had prior intelligence about the possible attacks from the militants.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab militants clashed with villagers of Shabeelow, Mudug region in north-central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that villagers took up arms to fight Al-Shabaab militants to defend their livestock from being taken away. The hours battle as at least 14 villagers and 16 militants killed in close gun battle.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab militants briefly seized control of Adakibir village in Galgaduud region of central Somalia. Local reports indicate that Al-Shabaab gathered a large crowd on a public place and delivered speeches. The speeches were warning to the locals against collaborating with security forces in the region. The militants also pointed out that that they have established bases in the area.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab firing squad publicly executed four men on spying accusations in Saakow, Middle Juba region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab accused the four men for spying on behalf of Federal government, Kenyan troops and for the US forces. Recently Al-Shabaab executed four other men in a public square in Ceelcadhe area of Gedo region on spying allegations.
• On September 5^th, Multiple explosions reported in the capital Mogadishu.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab in repeat kind of raid attacked joint US and SNA troops in a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at Jana Abdalle (Jana Cabdalle) village near the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba. One American soldier was wounded in the attack. US and Somali forces were conducting their joint routine patrol operation when Al-Shabaab attacked using a car bomb and mortar fire. Al-Shabaab through its pro-media claimed responsibility of the attack exaggerating on the casualty figures. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 4 American soldiers and 16 US-trained Somali soldiers.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple explosions targeting AMISOM and SNA in Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Local reports indicate overnight gun battle was reported in Arbacoow, Lambar 60, Bufow Awdheengle and Danoow localities.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed two simultaneous roadside bombs on Special Forces at Shabeelow village, Mudug region of central Somalia. Initial reports say 6 soldiers were wounded, one vehicle destroyed and second one slightly damaged. The Special Forces were supporting pro-government vigilantes fighting Al-Shabaab in the area. Al-Shabaab has repeatedly attacked Shabeelow village in an attempt to take up their livestock.
• On September 7^th, At least six children were killed and others wounded in a roadside bomb explosion near Baidoa town, Bay region, some 250 kilometers west of the capital Mogadishu. The roadside explosives believed were targeted at security forces who frequently uses the road in and out of town.
• On September 8^th, Al-Shabaab militants reportedly mounted a morning surprise attack on a local government HQ and a police station in the strategic town of Bal’ad, Middle Shabelle, about 30kms north of the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that several inmates were discharged the prison cells in the town. Security forces responded with gunfire killing at least at least 14 terrorists. One government soldier was killed and 7 civilians wounded according to the Ministry of Information.
• On September 8^th, Al-Shabaab shortly after noon in repeat attacks targeted SNA and coalition partner forces in Jana Abdalle area, on the outskirts of the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba. This is the second bombing in less than 24hours in Jana Abdalle that targeted joint troops.  Al-Shabaab hurriedly claimed the attack saying the IED blast killed four members of the Somali forces working with foreign forces and wounded three others.

Most of Somalia’s regions remains fluid in the sense that, they are captured by joint counterterrorism assets while the militants in the same zeal fight persistently to regain control and vice-versa. Al-Shabaab militant group typically leaves an area ahead of many offensives targeting their bases and later comes back and recaptures the same territories. Additionally, Somali security forces have also been unable to maintain control of these territories, bringing into question of SNA preparedness to take over the mantle of Somalia’s security in the event foreign troops exits Somalia.

The use of landmines, roadside IEDs, RCIEDs and VBIEDs remains preferred attack types by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, guerilla ambushes targeting both local and foreign troops in Somalia are on the rise. The militants have increased guerilla ambush attacks on troop’s convoys as well as their military bases notably in southern Somalia’s, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba recording repeat attacks.

Counterterrorism assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. US-trained Danab forces captured Al-Shabaab militants in an operation conducted in Lower Shabelle on September 6. The militants were captured and their weapons seized following an intelligence guided operation in Leego town of Lower Shabelle, approximately 12kms from the capital Mogadishu.

Fierce clash between SNA supported by AMISOM and the Islamist militants has also been reported in the strategic town of Jana Abdalle which is located about 60kms west of the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba. The operation saw several militants killed and several captured.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s increased activity. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.