Increased Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.
Mid-week, Al-Shabaab has recorded more than 10 attacks in Somalia and one attack in Fafi, Garissa NEP Kenya. Increased militant’s activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions.
Notable attacks have been targeted on military bases both on local and foreign troops. Al-Shabaab has scaled-up attacks on military bases especially in Bay regions, Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Half of these claimed attacks have been targeted on security troops’ bases and convoys. In Kenya, the militant group mid-week has claimed at least one attack on a security outpost in Fafi area, near Garissa town. The attack comes after Force Intelligence Teams (FITs) warned of increased Al-Shabaab movements close to the Kenyan border with Somalia in search of water.
Recently Claimed Attacks (July 1st – July 7th)
- July 1. Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot and killed a security and intelligence officer in Baidoa town. The slain was identified as Sharif Mokhtar Jiis , an advocate for the people with disabilities in Bay region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab accused Jiis of spying on behalf of NISA.
- July 3. Al-Shabaab claimed a mortar attack on KDF-AMISOM troops. The militants claimed to have attacked the KDF Abdalla Birole military base, outside Kismayo town in Lower Juba.
- July 4. Al-Shabaab militants conducted a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in Hamar Jajab district of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. Somali officials reported that the attack targeted a tax collection center. The explosion killed the attacker and injured at least five civilians.
- July 4. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED explosion at Huriwaa Livestock Market in Huriwaa district of Mogadishu that targeted Ethiopian-AMISOM’s troops. An armored vehicle was destroyed in the explosion.
- July 4. A remote controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED) that was hidden in a hotel, close to a checkpoint and regularly frequented by security forces in western city of Baidoa was detonated killing at least five people; two police officers and three civilians.
- July 4. Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Kenyan security outpost in Fafi area, near Garissa town, NEP Kenya. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed one officer.
- July 5. Al-Shabaab improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in Baidoa city in south-central Somalia’s Bay region. The explosion that was targeted at government security checkpoint killed at least five civilians and injured at least eight others.
- July 5. At least two children and their mother were wounded in a deadly mortar attack claimed by Al-Shabaab on a residential area in Janale town, about 94km from capital Mogadishu.
- July 5. A regional Somali lawmaker was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab militants, near Bal’ad town, about 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu. The Hirshabelle lawmaker identified as Mohamed Mohamud Siyad was traveling in his vehicle from Jowhar town to the capital Mogadishu when he was abducted and later killed.
- July 6, SNA forces repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on a SNA base near Awdinle town in Bay region, killing five Al-Shabaab militants. The militants attempted to overrun a military base manned by Somali National Army but were repelled.
- July 6. Al-Shabaab claimed a roadside bomb attack on Burundian convoy, on the road between Jowhar and Bal’ad town. The militants targeted Burundian-AMISOM’s convoy that was from Mogadishu for supplies. Three soldiers were killed and some trucks destroyed in the explosion.
- July 7. Four AMISOM soldiers killed in an attack in Lower Shabelle region. Al-Qaeda affiliated claimed a mortar attack on AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle. Casualties reported and an armored vehicle destroyed.
Assessment and Observation
The Islamist Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The surge in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.
Its notable in the capital Mogadishu and its environs after a long time, Al-Shabaab has resumed using IEDs as preferred attack types. Mid-week, Al-Shabaab has claimed two IED attacks in Huriwaa and Hamar Jajab districts of Mogadishu. It is also a good thing that, unlike the previous norms whereby spectacular Al-Shabaab suicide missions were witnessed in the capital, vehicular suicide missions have significantly declined, an indication, CT-operations are yielding.
In Bay region, mid-week, Al-Shabaab has claimed at least two attacks though it was targeted on hard target, civilians were also caught up in IED explosions. Baidoa has notably become a hotpot for Al-Shabaab’s activities.
In Baidoa city, south-central Somalia’s Bay region, Al-Shabaab claimed one explosion that was targeted at government security checkpoint; it killed at least five civilians and injured at least eight others while another remote controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED) that was hidden in a hotel close to a checkpoint and regularly frequented by security forces in western city of Baidoa was detonated killing at least five people; two police officers and three civilians. Also, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a security and intelligence officer in Baidoa town.
In Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a Kenyan operated Abdalla Birole military base in the outskirts of the port city of Kismayo, while in Elasha Biyaha locality of Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab claimed a mortar attack on AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops. In Bal’ad District (Somali: Degmada Balcad), one of the districts of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab in a targeted raid abducted and executed a Hirshabelle lawmaker identified as Mohamed Mohamud Siyad.
Counterterrorism assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. Somali army forces repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on a SNA base near Awdinle town in Bay region killing five Al-Shabaab militants. The militants attempted to overrun a military base manned by Somali National Army but were repelled.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend is not getting any better and the curve is trending up, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.
