Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of September 11th – September 15th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Increased Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.

Increased militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. Kenya’s northeastern prefectures which are also targets of Al-Shabaab have remained calm. However, the militant’s zeal and intentions to attack security positions and critical infrastructires in the NEP region cannot be ruled out. The Somali-based Al-Shabaab militants while planting Improvised Explosive Devise (IED) in Fafi area of Garissa county exploded, killing three of them and injuring four others. This is one incident that indicates the militants resolves to target the Kenya security assets besides innocent civilians.

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 11^th – September 15^th)

• On September 11^th, Al-Shabaab ambush on SNA troops repulsed near Beled Hawo, southwestern Gedo region. Six militants were killed in the botched attack.
• On September 12^th, Al-Shabaab attempted raid on Arbaow military base at Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle was successfully repulsed by AMISOM security forces following an intense gun battle. The military base id operated by the Burundian troops.
• On September 13^th, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants attacked SNA troops in Dharkeyley district of Mogadishu with IED explosion and followed by indiscriminate firing. Casualties reported from both sides.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked the security forces of the HirShabelle Administration located in Beledweyne town. Casualties reported.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly attempted to stage an ambush raid on AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in Ambareeso, Barawe district of Lower Shabelle. No casualties were reported in the botched raid.
• On September 14^th, about 20 heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants raided the home of Hussein Fidow, the leader of the self-organised anti-Al-Shabaab militias known as Ma’awisley at night and killed him alongside his niece in Beledweyne.
• On September 15^th, Gun fighting and IED explosions targeting AMISOM troops in Marka, Lower Shabelle reported. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab militants carried out multiple attacks on the outskirts of the town of Marka, the capital of Lower Shabelle. Corresponding local sources indicate that the IED explosions targeted Ugandan troops operating in the area. Casualties from both sides reported.
• On September 15^th, At least seven people were killed and two others wounded in a roadside IED explosion near Hudur town in Bakol region of Somalia.

Counterterrorism Interventions

The Islamist Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The surge in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

Counterterrorism assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. In past couple of weeks, Al-Shabaab has also dealt blows from CT-operations especially in Somalia.

• AMISOM successfully repulsed an Al-Shabaab raid in their Forward Operating Base (FOB) in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu on Sunday. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab attempted to run over an AMISOM base in the vicinity of Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia but were met with resistance in a clash that lasted for about 30 minutes. Militants casualties were reported as several reportedly fled into the thickets after being overpowered.
• A senior Al-Shabaab operative identified as Ibrahim Moalim Abdi alias Ibrahim Ganey was killed in a military operation conducted between Bardale and Awdnile town of Bay region of Somalia. The slain terror operative was a commander in charge of the group’s military operations in southern Somalia, and his death is a huge blow to the Islamists militants’ operations in the southern regions. The operation also saw counterterrorism assets confiscate cache of enemy weapons and communication gadgets.
• Somali army forces announced killing of 12 Al-Shabaab militants in a military operation conducted near Barire area, Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Reports referencing the commander of SNA 143^rd Unit, Major Ahmed Hassan Siyad noted that the troops killed militants in a planned operation after receiving credible intelligence that Al-Shabaab was in the area demanding money and other supplies including food stuffs from the locals.
• The Somali National Army (SNA) said it killed six Al-Shabaab militants and wounded four others when the militants ambushed the SNA near Beled Hawo in southwestern Somalia’s Gedo region on September 11.
• In Kenya NEP, 3 Al-Shabaab militants blew themselves up while setting up IED targeting security patrol teams. Police reports say an Improvised Explosive Devise (IED) exploded while being assembled by the militants at Fafi area of Garissa county killing three on the spot and injuring four other militants.
• Kenyan security agencies continue to be on high alert following incidents of Al-Shabaab movements and sightings being reported close to border prefectures with Somalia. Enhanced security operations to address such incidents, noting that roadside bombs/landmines and even remote-controlled explosive devices (RCIEDs) are set up by the Islamist militants to target movements of security officers in the regions which borders Somalia.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge. This trend is not getting any better and the curve is trending up, if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.