On Monday, 20th March 2023, bleak political events in Kenya’s Capital Nairobi and at Kisumu, a Lakeside City, were captured by global newsrooms. The spectacle was Mr Raila Odinga, the loser of the 2022 general elections in August and hordes of his sociopolitical followers in the streets of the two cities disrupting business processes and movement of people. Odinga and his followers claimed they were protesting high cost of life in the economically fragile East African powerhouse. However, the protests weren’t peaceful; property was destroyed and disruptions witnessed leading to deployment of police force to quell the threat on civilians and businesses. Some of the affected businesses include the 5 Star Sarova Imperial Hotel in Kisumu. The hotel glass windows were destroyed and its business disrupted. Violent protesters attempted to take over the Kisumu State Lodge but the brazen attempt was preempted by police. Vandalism, attacks on innocent civilians, and disruption of movement of persons was reported summing up the precariously negative political events, now of significant interest to the eyes of the world.
Analysis
The events in Kenya on 20th March 2023 signals renewed sociopolitical conflict which if unchecked could spiral out of control. Mr. Raila Odinga announced to his supporters that these violent protests should be repeated every Monday going forward.
A Failure to reign on these sociopolitical tensions and related violence will lead to the weakening of the ruling party UDA. Already, the harsh economic weather coupled with these events have already taken toll on President William Ruto’s Government ratings, a very worrisome precedent as well.
The fragile economic situation doesn’t need such disruptions. Investor confidence is gradually getting dull as the shilling and stocks continue to lose value besides worsening inflation. Weather conditions continue to improve, with rainfall reported across the country and this could ease inflation.
President William Ruto faces an uphill task of uniting the country and avoid socio-political fractures which often lead to armed ethno-political conflicts. Such incidents have been documented in past election cycles.
However, Odinga’s perennial complains must, for the 1st time in decades, be put to a stop. A Typical bully and a subversive figure, Odinga may get his way once again if President Ruto opts to dangle carrots and relieve the pressure on the enlarging socio-political fissures. It will be a tricky balancing act; the President will have to choose between his popularity and future prospects (a second term) against socio-economic and political stability. He knows well enough that any merger with Odinga will be his political waterloo as has always been the case with everyone else before him.
The President and the ruling party will not sit down and wait for more of Odinga’s menace and destruction. The International community, Private Sector, and general public are wary of any further destabilization of the country socio-politically. That leaves President William Ruto and his Chief of Intelligence with no option but to act in a manner that will ensure Odinga will never again become a destabilizing figure and the country sociopolitical wellbeing safeguarded.
