Intelligence sources are working hard to establish how catastrophic the indictment of Ocampo Six would be socio-politically.
According to Strategic Intelligence (SIN), the pre-trial chamber of the ICC is reaffirming its decision that due process has to be followed and those responsible for the 2007-2008 post election violence must be punished.
Indications that the Ocampo Six who include Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Francis Muthaura, Joshua Sang, Hussein Ali, and Henry Kosgey are likely to be indicted are evident.
ICC recently requested the health records of the Ocampo Six. This was facilitated by the ICC registrar Urban Silva.
Urban Silva requested for the medical records of the six PEV suspects from the Attorney General which indicates that some or all of the suspects might be incarcerated at the Hague.
The ICC also requested local media to conduct opinion polls to determine the ramifications of such an announcement.
ICC is worried that indicting Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto would have catastrophic ramifications socio-politically besides creating tribal dissent.
Another indicator that the Ocampo Six might be indicted is the recent request by ICC for their wealth records.
ICC wants these records to ensure the money is not used to hide the suspects
Of the most likely to be held at the Hague are William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta, and Francis Muthaura, and General Ali.
However, ICC is trying to use Kenyan government machinery to pin down any possibility of socio-political dissent after making the announcement.
The ICC has struggled to convince the Kenyan’s that an indictment is not actually a confirmation of guilt.
Another indicator that an indictment is likely is the gusto prime minister Odinga is carrying out his political campaigns.
The confidence and gusto shows he knows too much about whats happening owing to the fact that he is in the cabinet and well informed.
The ICC has until January 20th 2012 to make the announcement
