Increase in fatal terror attacks in Somalia in the month of June 2015 is an indicator of increasing threat of terrorism in East Africa.
The increase in the frequency of terrorist attacks and the rising rate of success of these attacks provides insight on the Harakat Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia increasing capability to conduct attacks on both soft and hard targets.
A Short term forecast on the outlook in Kenya shows increased risk of attacks on soft targets towards the end of the month of Ramadhan.
Crowded bus-terminus, busy traffic, popular bars and nightclubs, churches, and government security agencies officers are likely to be targeted.
The Harakat Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement may orchestrate attacks on the above targets using VBIED (vehicle bound improvised explosive devices) suicide bombers, and gun attacks.