The Kenya-Somalia diplomatic and border conflict is inching towards a new critical point. There will be an ‘escalation of subversive activities’ and a subsequent Phantom menace along the common border prefecture. With a grand bargain over the dispute remaining elusive, Kenya is for the 1st time throughout the crisis more pragmatic if not ultimately decisive. These kind of conflicts usually end in diplomacy; however, in the meantime, that point seems far away.
‘What we’ve observed is subversion operations along the border with Somalia. These operations are state sponsored and we were expecting them. The current ‘Federal Government of Somalia’ backed by various actors including neighboring countries and a Gulf State orchestrated subversive operations targeting the Kenyan North Eastern region. Early January, intelligence sources warned of grassroots leaders meeting with NISA cells in Bulla Hawo in Somalia and came back with cessationists flags which they distributed to their supporters in Kenya, particularly traders who often cross over to Somalia for business. These operations including enlisting help of the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen to destroy communication infrastructure in NEP, affect the robustness of intelligence collection, stoke sectarian conflict, and turn local communities against the Government. Perhaps they find this ‘genius’, it is not. We saw it coming and we will be taking out their agent saboteurs, destroying Al-Shabaab Mujahideen terrorists, and transforming North Eastern to an economic hub and home to Kenyan Patriotism.’ Military Intelligence.
The International Community will encourage the FGS to be accommodating and careful, but the Republic of Kenya will push for a hard-line approach. This is Because of political considerations. Nairobi will not submit to a hostile failed state besides demands for “special status” by the current FGS Admin. Worse, for the 1st time, Nairobi will keep its options open and will not abandon the possibility of hostile military activity if Somalia and its sponsors remain uncooperative.
