Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Tanzania, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists 1st November- 12th November 2020

Islamic State’s two provinces in Somalia and Central Africa have continually conducted attacks against civilian and security targets. While the attacks still follow the same MO that each group has carved out in the four countries; Tanzania, Somalia, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the groups appear to be copying from each other with the shootings, beheadings, and looting being reoccurring.

In Mozambique, ISCAP has retaken temporary occupation of districts and conducting retaliatory attacks on residents and local militias in the Restive Cabo Delgado province. The group still prefers beheading as an homage to ancient Islam practices as well as looting to furnish its ever-growing membership with supplies. Medical supplies have become a coveted commodity by the group as they continue to suffer grave injuries from CT efforts by Mozambican military and paramilitary groups.

In DRC, ADF insurgents continue to launch attacks on the Christian population as well as the military who they have dubbed interventionists. The insurgents attack villages killing residents with knives and guns and often engage the troops deployed in the North Kivu Province to curb the growing threat of the ISIS-affiliated militants. Unlike in Mozambique where the attacks appear to be indiscriminate in the Beni region the militants attack the majority Christian populace.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, Tanzania, Somalia, and DRC for 1^st– 12^th November 2020

Mozambique

• 1^st November- ISCAP announced the temporary occupation of Namacande which is the district capital for Muidumbe.
• 1^st November- 20 people killed among them 15 teenagers and 5of their councilors were beheaded in 24 de Marco village, Muidumbe during annual initiation rites ceremonies.
• 1^st November- ISCAP occupied Muidumbe district in a series of attacks on the villages in the strategic district.
•   2^nd November- 5 civilians were kidnaped and several houses burned to the ground in Pundanhar, Palma by ISCAP just a day after the militants collided with the military
• 3^rd November– at least 24 youth and 6 adults beheaded in the vicinity of Muatide, Muidumbe district after which the bodies were gathered and paraded at a local football field.
• 4^th November- ISCAP attacked, looted for food and supplies, and burned down homes in Nampanha, Muidumbe district
• 5^th November- 2 people decapitated and 6 women kidnaped and almost an entire village burned to the ground in Nanjaba, Macomia district.
• 6^th November- 3 people killed in Rice production center in Napala, Macomia district. militants burned down homes.
• 09^th November- ISCAP attempted to conduct prison breaks in Mieze, Metuge district as well as in Macomia and Mocimboa da Praia.
• 11^th November- 2 people beheaded and burned as jihadists occupied Mandela, Matambalale, and Miteda villages in Muidumbe where they have been taking strategic control over Muidumbe as was done in MDP.

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 01^st November- 2 people killed, 1 wounded on the Mbau-Kamango road axis in Beni-Mbau.
• 03^rd November- 2 people burned alive by ISCAP in Maangali, Beni-Mbau
• 04^th November- 2 people shot dead in their fields in Lumanza village in the Rwenzori sector.
• 04^th November- 2 people hacked to death with machetes in Loselose, Rwenzori sector.
• 05^th November- 1 woman killed in her field in Tchotchoro village, Rwenzori sector
• 05^th November- 4 bodies discovered in Lumanza village in Rwenzori sector believed to have been killed by ISCAP
• 07^th November- 7 civilians and 1 soldier killed in Kisima, Rwenzori sector and at least 15 houses razed to the ground.
• 07^th November- 6 people killed in Matadi village, Beni-Mbau, several others kidnapped, houses looted for food, and other valuables.
• 09^th November- 3 soldiers killed weapons and ammo seized by militants in Kisima, Rwenzori
• 09^th November- 5 people killed, livestock stolen in Masekunde, Ituri province
• 09^th November- 5 people killed, livestock stolen, supplies looted in Mbujimai village, Beni-Mbau
• 10^th November- 7 killed in Sambako village, Mambase territory on the border between Beni and Ituri provinces

Analysis and Insights

In Mozambique, ISCAP continues to expand and present itself as a formidable terror organization that is capable of conducting attacks across two countries simultaneously and with a capability that is still elusive to CT actors in Cabo Delgado. In the first two weeks of November, the group appears to have both operational and strategic capabilities that elude the Mozambican military DAG paramilitary which has been exhibited in the nature of the group’s attacks on Muidumbe district. It has become apparent that ISCAP’s agenda against Muidumbe is to seize and occupy Muidumbe and as a result cut off Mueda, Nangande, and Palma Districts from the rest of the country and Province. The move is especially strategic seeing as the rainy season is imminent and controlling Muidumbe will give them combat advantage over the military who have been reinforced with better military equipment.

In Muidumbe, there have been active militias that have been fighting ISCAP and in weeks before the massacres that left at least 50 people dead, intelligence that at least a couple of dozen ISCAP terrorists had been killed by the locals. Intelligence revealed that their goal was to cause 270 deaths, equal to the number of insurgents recently beheaded by former fighters in the same District. The same was true as after the massacre residents publicly tortured and beheaded three terrorists in Muidumbe.

At least 12 Iranians were arraigned in court in Maputo for supporting ISCAP in Cabo Delgado after their vessel was detained in December 2019 loaded with weapons off the Bay of Pemba which is the provincial capital. The 12 carried AK47 machine guns, shotguns, pistols, ammunition and binoculars, credit cards, and motorcycles. Such an occurrence is worrying as it is almost impossible to estimate the weapons capabilities that the group possesses and especially now that they control the port city of Mocimboa da Praia.

It is apparent that ISCAP has morphed into a great threat in East and Central Africa and is operating with the ISIS-Central playbook which includes making huge international headlines publicizing their activities. In the past month, the group has managed to garner international attention by conducting cross-border attacks in Tanzania as well as a continued violent campaign in Cabo Delgado.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the UN mission (MONUSCO) deployed its drones and additional night patrols to track Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in North Kivu’s Kisima region. The deployment comes as the terror organization continues to expand throughout the province as well as the neighboring Ituri Province. The group seems to be changing up its attacks with daytime attacks on farmers and as well as an attack on churches as evidenced by an attack in Lisasa that left at least 20 people dead. The group appears to also be taking a page from their Mozambican counterparts to seek out international headlines and use it as a recruitment tool as the group seeks to consolidate territory in the larger East and Central Africa region. Attacks on Christians in the Beni region by ISCAP are on the rise with the group showing enhanced military-like coordination and movement especially during the attacks that guarantee success and confidence to attack high-security targets like the military.

ISIS has not only provided training, funding, and theological guidance to ISIS provinces in sub-Saharan Africa, it has also metamorphosed and reorganized ISCAP and ISS. The ISIS threat is not an individual nation threat as it is documented how terror organizations amerce power and capabilities to conduct cross-border attacks as is the case of ISCAP in Tanzania and Mozambique. Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed. While military solutions are the most used methods local players and authorities should explore other socio-economic and political solutions to radicalization to ensure that military action does not further isolate local communities and inspire radicalization and sprouting of new cells in the restive regions of the respective countries.