Mid-week East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of 11th November – 17th November: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Persistent Al-Shabaab activity continue to be recorded in East Africa region. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks over the years.

Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past few days, the Islamist militants recorded at least 8 attacks all in Somalia regions as listed below.

Recently Claimed Attacks

• On November 11^th, An Al-Shabaab roadside landmine detonated near Dhusamareb city in central Somalia’s Galgudud region. The explosion reportedly killed two SNA soldiers. The region continues to record similar repeats attacks. For example, an Al-Shabaab roadside IED detonated near Dhusamareb in late October, injured at least one SNA soldier.
• On November 12^th, reports from Baidoa town, the provincial capital of Bay region of Somalia confirmed that Al-Shabaab fighters conducted mortar attack on AMISOM’s Ethiopian military bases in Baidoa town. The militants fired several rounds of mortar shells causing casualties and damage of military property.
• On November 13^th, reports from Hodan district in Mogadishu confirm that a car bomb had exploded at a police station in the capital Mogadishu. Hodan district commissioner identified as Abdi Karin Dhagajun and two of his bodyguards killed in the blast.
• On November 13^th, the Minister of Environment and Tourism of the Jubbaland administration narrowly escaped an assassination attempt following an IED explosion in Kismayo, killing three of his bodyguards.
• On November 13^th, in a separate operation same day, Al-Shabaab militants attempted to assassinate a Somali regional minister with an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Kismayo city in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region. The attack killed two bodyguards and one civilian.
• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab claims to have killed Beledweyne district official in Bundaweyne neighborhood, Hiran region of Somalia.
• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a Somali government soldier in a car bomb attack on the outskirts of Shalanbood in Lower Shabelle.  Two others wounded.
• On November 17^th, Massive explosion reported near Somalia’s main police academy in the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that suspected Al-Shabaab bomber blew himself up at gathering of police officers at General Kahiye academy in Mogadishu’s Hamar-Jajab distirct. Casualties reported. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 12 police officers and wounded 14 others. Somalia Police spokesman said 6 people were killed and 8 others wounded.

Latest CT-Ops and Interventions

Joint counterterrorism operations (CT-Ops) from across various regions of Somalia continue to mount pressure on the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab, slowing down besides disrupting their increasing operations.

• Joint troops claimed to kill an Al-Shabaab leader following operations in southern Somalia’s Middle and Lower Shabelle regions on November 15. The troops killed Sheikh Mohamed Suleiman who was head of radicalization department in the group.
• An Al-Shabaab operative was on Sunday sentenced in Somalia by the country’s military court on November 15. Hassan Ali, an Al-Shabaab suspect who is believed to have been leading several attacks in the Hiran region was imprisoned for 5 years.
• Police in Bosaso have carried out a security operation to secure the region ahead of elections for MPs.The operation started on November 15 was led by Bari Regional Police Commander Hussein Ali Mohamud targeted the mountains between Bosaso and Armo district in Bari region.
• Somali National Army (SNA) forces claimed to kill two suspected Al-Shabaab mid-level commanders in Bar Sanguni town in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region on November 11.
• Somali National Army (SNA) forces supported by AMISOM troops reportedly seized El Ali village, located on the outskirts of Dhusamareb city, in central Somalia’s Galgudud region on November 7. The joint troops reportedly caused at least ten militant casualties.
• Somalia’s US-trained special forces, Danab, carried out a planned operation targeting Al-Shabaab in some parts of Shabelle regions and Hiraan. Al-Shabaab bases in Hiraan and Shabelle regions, Hirshabelle state destroyed and a number of terror operatives arrested.

Conclusion

Despite concerted CT-ops and interventions, Al-Shabaab remains resilient conducting attacks, though low intensity attacks from across various regions of Somalia. What makes Al-Shabaab able to conduct such responses, regardless of damage it sustains due to local and foreign intervention, is its adaptability. Al-Shabaab’s organisational framework has adapted, morphed, enabling it to continue carrying out attacks both on hard and soft targets.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab also is be expected to maintain a presence in southern and central Somalia. In rural areas, the group will continue to exploit inter-clan tensions, now the country draws closer to elections as well as exploit locals in order to retain spaces in which it can operate, while obtaining local recruits and resources. Its fighters will act as “force multipliers” for the clan militias to whom they lend support—especially where those militants are actively opposed to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its allies.

Lastly, there should be no doubt that Al-Shabaab, or other jihadist elements in the Horn region that are aligned with the group, will retain the desire and the capability to strike soft, unsuspecting targets outside Somalia. Kenya remains particularly vulnerable to Al-Shabaab, given the existence of a domestic jihadist affiliate, Al-Hijra, and the significant number of Kenyan fighters still in Al-Shabaab’s ranks.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge.  Joint CT and COIN actors not to relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups in an effort to disrupt their network besides their plans. In order for such gains to be sustained, military operations must be situated in the context of a broader, multifaceted strategy particularly concerted effort to deny Al-Shabaab local support and to dismantle its “governorates” and their forces.