Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of January 1st – January 15th, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in East Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has sown chaos in Somalia for close to two decades and shows no end in sight to the war. In the face of military operations by Somalia’s government and its foreign partners, Al-Shabaab has proven resilient, continuously adjusting its strategy while entrenching itself deeper in Somali society.

The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities sharply continue to surge with at least one to four attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for central and southern prefectures/regions of Somalia.

Al-Shabaab has scaled up attacks in the beginning of the year 2023 with at least 46 attacks being recorded in the first two weeks of January. In the first week, at least 23 operations were recorded while on the second week under review another 23 attacks have been recorded. Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. At least a few operations in Mandera, Garissa and Lamu being recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise even in the coming days, weeks and as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia exploiting the drought and hunger situation.  The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Hiran, Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

As Somalia to suffer from the ravaging drought and deepening hunger crisis, Al-Shabaab is expected to exploit this climatic change factor to woo public in the sense that government won’t manage to handle these multiple crises. Insecurity caused by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab extremist group limits access to hungry people, and its fighters notable has destroyed water wells especially in Hiran regions besides destroying food sources in retaliation for its losses in a new local militias, ATMIS and Somali government offensives.

CT Brief: January 1^st – January 15^th

• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian and Ugandan Forces in Qarioli and Shalanboud, Arbao and Sinkadir, Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an Attack on a Military Base in Haghrboul, Garissa, NEP Kenya.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab abducted 20 Hawadle civilians from Beledweyne district, Hiran region, central Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Four Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in 60 kms District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.

• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Military Base in Dinsoor City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Attacks on a Military Base with IED in Karan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces in an Attack on Their Convoy with IED Between Kiunga and Shanghani Districts, Lamu, Kenya.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Wedo District and Targeted a Military Checkpoint with Two IEDs in Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in Two IED Attacks in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled Ugandan and Somalian Forces with Missiles in 60 Kms Area and Ambushed a Military Base in Zabid Town in Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 4^th, A Harwa Official Survived an Assassination Attempt, Killed One of His Guards and Injured Three Others in an IED Attack in Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab Damaged a Somalian Forces Element and a Bulldozer in Two Attacks on a Gathering and a Position in Kismayo, Juba, Southern Somalia.
• On January 4^th, Al-Shabaab detonated two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices in Mahas, Bulo Burde district, Hiran region, central Somalia. The explosions killed at least 20 people.
• On January 4^th, Al Shabaab claimed to overrun a local militia base in Duduna’ad, Goobo area, Beledweyne district, Hiran region.  Local officials claimed al Shabaab only controlled the area for a brief period and destroyed a water well the government dug in December.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Amaska District, Yaqshid, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element, Injured Another and Seized His Kalashnikov in an Ambush at Baidoa City Gate, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Kenyan Christian Village in Witu town, Coastal County of Lamu, Kenya.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Ronraghoud, Haloli Ghab, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Two Somalian Forces and Destroyed a Vehicle in an Attack on Their Gathering on Juba River Near Bologaduud Town, Juba City, Southern Somalia.
• On January 6^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a complex suicide raid targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) and local militia camp in Hilowle Gaab, El Dheere district, Galgadud region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab used multiple suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) to begin the attack.

• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces and Injured Another in an IED Attack in Mahas, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Attacks on 3 Military Bases in Baidoa and Afgoye, Bay and Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Tabilha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian, Ethiopian and Kenyan Forces in Harwa, Dinsoor, Wajid and Tabto in Mogadishu, Banadir, Bay, Bakool and Juba, Somalia.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Dharkenley, Mogadishu.
• On January 8^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated Two Somalian Forces in Harwa and Afgoye, Banadir and Lower Shabelle Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Fighters Killed Three ATMIS-Ugandan Forces and Injured Others in an Attack on a Ugandan Military Base with Missiles in 60Kms District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted General Gordon Military Base with IED in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Ugandan Forces and Injured Another in an Ambush on Their Convoy with IED Near Dano, Qarioli, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Colonel, Abrahim Ali Asandi, and Two Somalian Forces in Yaqshid, Tabliha and Taridshi Districts, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab attacked Duduna’ad village, Beledweyne district, Hiran region, central Somalia. Local Ma’awisley defended the village after finding out al Shabaab was heading to the village to burn down a well.
• On January 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have Ambushed a Kenyan Military Base in Ail Kalo District, Mandera, NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Dharkenley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Shelled a Somalian Military Base with Missiles in Janale town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Targeting a Somalian Forces’ Gathering in Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Roadside IED Killed 4 Highway Authority Workers in Hailey, Bura East, Garissa County NEP Kenya.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Gathering in an IED Attack in Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab raided a village and killed more than 300 livestock near Mahas, Bulo Burde district, Hiran region, central Somalia. The attack was reportedly in retaliation for local cooperation with government forces.

• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Forces Element in an IED Attack on a Military Base in Elwak City, Gedo Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Forces Positions and Barracks in Wardeqili, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Gufgaduud Bori and Afgoye, Banadir, Bay, Lower Shabelle Regions, Somalia.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab attacked government employees in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district on their way to an anti-al Shabaab rally. Al-Shabaab militants threw at least two grenades and shot at two vehicles. Casualties reported.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Seven Others in Two IED Attacks on Somalian Forces Vehicles in Bolo Hobi District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Somalian Gatherings and Seized “Muhammad Hassan” District that is 30 km Away from Beledweyne town, Hiran Region, Somalia.
• On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Ugandan Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Convoy in Shalambood City, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On January 14^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Commander, Moamen Almi Sunni, in al-Baraka District, Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On January 14^th, one person was killed and at least six others injured in a suicide car bombing at a checkpoint manned by Somali government troops in Jalalaqsi and Bulobarde towns in Hiran region of central Somalia.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Al-Shabaab’s persistent attacks targeting military operating bases, convoys, government officials besides civilian targets suggest of our continuous reports of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa and other neighboring countries.

Notably, Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, has been waging a deadly insurgency in the country for nearly two decades. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials.

Al-Shabaab’s war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks but the group’s capability of striking green zones continues to grow and exhibited in their well-coordinated attacks. Generally, most of the attacks can be described as low intensity, but numerous, disruptive, and daring.

The Islamist militant group has remained the main destabilizing force in the region and the key obstacle to international efforts to reconstruct the Somali state. The militant group continues to exist as a resilient and tactful force that quickly adapts to new circumstances in Somalia’s complex civil war requiring change of military approaches and strategies to successfully thwart/foil their increasing attacks especially in Somalia.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab as a fully morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

Thus, its folly to underestimate Al-Shabaab as a ragtag group, citing the continuous onslaught by ATMIS troops and other forces, the militant attacks indicate that the group can still coordinate attacks and produce reliable intelligence on military movements. These developments demonstrate that the group’s insurgency in southern and central Somalia is more resilient and flexible than casually anticipated, having shifted into a regional force, and sporadically exporting its terror activities to neighboring Kenya.