Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of December 1st – December 14th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in East Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities sharply continue to surge with at least one to four attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for central regions of Somalia.

In the first two weeks of December, at least 38 attacks have been recorded. The first week, at least 17 operations were recorded while on the second week under review at least 21 attacks have been recorded. Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. At least two operations in Mandera NEP have been recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab.  As Kenya enters festivity season, security has been beefed along the volatile border with Somalia as well as in the coastal counties including Mombasa and Lamu.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise even in the coming days and as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia exploiting the drought and hunger situation.  The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Hiran, Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

Somalia is at the epicenter of a deepening hunger crisis, exacerbated by climate change and the ongoing conflict with Al-Shabaab insurgents. The new report is a grim look at Somalia’s multiple crises. Insecurity caused by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab extremist group limits access to hungry people, and its fighters have destroyed water wells and food sources in retaliation for its losses in new ATMIS and Somali government offensives.

CT Brief: December 1^st – December 14^th

• On December 14^th,  Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces After Repelling Two Attacks Between Ali Gaduud Town, Middle Shabelle State, South Somalia.
• On December 14^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Two Somalian and Kenyan Positions in Wajid City and Hozingow Town, Bakool and Juba States, Southern Somalia.
• On December 14^th, Al-Shabaab Injured Nine Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Training Camp in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Nine Somalian Forces and Destroyed a Military Vehicle in 3 IED Attacks.
• On December 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Forces Position in Zabid Town, Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 12^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed a civilian vehicle in Mandera County, NEP Kenya. The militants attacked a vehicle between Jabibar and Bamboo in Mandera North killing at least two people.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Position in Singler District, Kismayo City, Juba State, Southern Somalia.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Jowhar airport manager with a roadside improvised explosive device near Hanshooley, Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed the explosion also killed a bodyguard and wounded several others.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Injured at Least a Somalian Forces Element in an IED Attack on a Foot Patrol in Afgoye City, Lower Shabelle Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 11^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Two Others in an Ambush in Mahdai City, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces and Injured Three Others in an Ambush in Adam Yabal City, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Colonel’s Military Vehicle Killing and Injuring Those on Board in an IED Attack Near Adam Yabal City, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Three Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Checkpoint in Galwin District, Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer, Salad Alai, in Denili, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Temporarily Seized Ghobo Town After an Attack on a Military Base That Led to the Escape of Forces in Mahas City, Hiran Region.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Three Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Military Checkpoint in Galowin District, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Djiboutian Military Base in Dhuusamareeb City Airport, Galgaduud Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Gedo regional National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) chief along the road between Luuq and Dolow towns in the Gedo region, southwestern Somalia.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab Seized Control Over Berhani Town, 25 kms From Beledweyne City, After Attacking a Military Base, Hiran Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured 6 Somalian Forces, Including Three Officers in an Ambush in Ali Gaduud, Middle Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab Destroyed a Somalian Special Forces Vehicle Killing and Injuring Those on Board with an IED in Kismayo City, Juba Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Forces Gathering with an IED in Adam Yabal City, Middle Shabelle Region, Somalia – 6 December 2022.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab Seized Control Over al-Furqan District in Ali Gaduud Town, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 6^th, Al-Shabaab mortared Puntland State forces in Galgala, Bari region, northern Somalia.
• On December 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed a Somalian Forces Element and Injured Another in an Ambush Near Labgars District, Kismayo City, Juba Region, Somalia.
• On December 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Kenyan Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an Ambush in Yanbis District, Garissa, NEP Kenya.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Military Base in Janale City, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Injured a Somalian Officer, Muhammad Khayr, in an IED Attack in Dinsoor City, Bay Region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On December 4^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated Two Somalian Forces in Madina and Dar al-Salam Districts, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces and Seized a Kalashnikov and Military Equipment in an Ambush in Qoryorey City, Lower Shabelle Region, Southern Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Kenyan and Somalian Military Bases in Mandera, Northeastern Kenya and in Janale, Kalbio and Labgars in Kismayo, Lower Shabelle and Juba Regions, Southern Somalia.
• On December 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Somalian Forces Convoy Killing and Injuring Several in New Hawa District, Maqkari City, Hiran Region, Central Somalia.
• On December 2^nd, Al-Shabaab: Balaad Mayor, Qassem Fardaq, Survived an Assassination Attempt and Several of His Guards Were Killed and Injured in Sous Crossroads, Harwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Ambushed African and Somalian Forces in Harwa, Denili and Bidoa, Banadir, Bay and Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al-Shabaab Injured at Least Two Somalian Forces in an IED Attack on a Foot Patrol in Tabilha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al-Shabaab Ambushed Two Somalian Military Bases in Gufgaduud Bori Town in Bidoa City and in Zabid in Afgoyee City, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions, Southern Somalia.
• On December 1^st, Al Shabaab militants cleared local clan militia forces from Daynunay, Baidoa district, Bay region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed 17 militiamen and wounded 19 more.
• On December 1^st, Al -Shabaab militants launched a complex ambush attack on SNA forces near Nur Dugle, Adan Yabaal district, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. The militants used at least one improvised explosive device and claimed to kill 14 SNA soldiers.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

Al-Shabaab’s attack claims have slightly decreased as compared to the last weeks of November where a total of about 40 operations were recorded. In the period under review, Al-Shabaab claimed a total of 32, including 16 direct attacks, 5 IED attacks, 4 ambushes on government convoys, and 3 assassinations or “special operations from across theaters of Somalia.

There is notable ability of the terrorists to move to the center of the capital, do assassinations, plant IEDs, lay ambush attacks and even detonate SVBIEDs in Military FOBs, near security checkpoints and military convoys target is worrying and can be viewed as Al-Shabaab’s new strategy to counter current security measures in the capital besides demonstrating their sharpened skills. 

Somalia also announced it had deactivated hundreds of media sites it said were propagating Al-Shabaab narratives, in the latest clampdown on violent extremism. Similarly, Somali government had warned businesses and locals against financing Al-Shabaab through paying of levies.

In a new report, made public this month, U.N. experts say the terrorist group is seeking more funds to pay about $1 million per month in salaries to its fighters. The report says despite Somalia’s crackdown on al-Shabab, the militants are also able to move funds through local and Islamic banks. Cutting off al-Shabab’s funding is key to winning the war against the Islamist militants.

Apart from information delivery, it is widely believed that the jihadist group also uses the sites and accounts to attract more supporters, loyalists including youths who are lured to join the Al-Qaeda-linked movement. However, its notable despite the direction to shut these websites down and other online platforms, a number of pro-jihadist’s platforms are still-on, promoting jihadist content.

Al-Shabāab al-Mujāhideen Terrorists continue conducting more demonstrative terror attacks persistently in an effort to outmatch and outbid Somali Security Forces. The repeated attacks in Military FOBs in especially Central Somalia, demonstrates terror groups resilience in the battlefield.  Of notable concern in these raids is huge heavy weapons, explosives, and ammo besides vehicles the terror group continues to acquire significantly high number of weapons from these raids on Somali Army.

Notably, Al-Shabaab pulled out from Adan Yabal about two days before Somali forces arrived in the area. This strategy, could be a move by Al-Shabaab to save its resources for other battles. The strategy by Al-Shabaab to withdraw from this city is quite different from what it has done in other towns in Hiran and in Middle Shabelle and in Galgadud, where it has faced Ma’awisley forces.

Conclusion

The capture of territories from Al-Shabaab has emboldened Somalis and the international community that the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group can be defeated.

However, Strategic Intelligence (S.I) analysts warn that the ultimate victory against the Al-Qaeda associated group is the ability to sustainably hold recovered territories and establish local administrations.

There are very legitimate concerns about the Somalia government’s ability to hold on to the territory that is being recovered from Al-Shabaab for a number of reasons that require a collective effort if they’re going to be overcome. But the bigger problem is that it seems that the operational tempo militarily is getting ahead of the planning and of force generation, and that is that there are insufficient holding forces to take these territories after the clearing forces have secured them noting that Al-Shabaab has been able to take back recovered towns in the past.