Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st February – 14th February, 2023: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, an Islamist militant group affiliated to Al-Qaeda, has been active in the East Africa region for more than a decade, with a primary focus on Somalia and Kenya. The group emerged in 2006 as the military wing of the Islamic Courts Union, which briefly controlled much of southern Somalia before being ousted by Ethiopian forces. Since then, Al-Shabaab has waged a campaign of violence, including suicide bombings, assassinations, and guerilla attacks, in an effort to overthrow the Somali government and establish an Islamic state/caliphate.

Despite military efforts by the Somali government and its international partners, including the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the United States, Al-Shabaab has proven resilient and adaptable, shifting tactics in response to changing circumstances. The group has also taken advantage of political instability, corruption, and poverty in Somalia to entrench itself in local communities, where it provides services and enforces its own brand of justice.

In addition to its activities in Somalia, Al-Shabaab has also carried out attacks in neighboring Kenya, targeting civilians, government officials, and foreign nationals. These sporadic attacks have been witnessed in border prefectures of Kenya and Somalia. (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu).

Despite ongoing efforts to combat the group, Al-Shabaab remains a significant security threat in the region, and its continued presence underscores the challenges of addressing the underlying political, economic, and social factors driving conflict in Somalia and the wider East Africa region.

In the past two weeks of February 2023, at least 37 attacks were report for Kenya and Somalia. Notably, Al-Shabaab continue to target security forces, their bases as well as government officials in Somalia, with an average of about three attacks on daily basis. Low scale attacks continue to be witnessed in Kenyan counties bordering Somalia. Also, threat of a terror attack in Kenyan cities is high and foreign Embassies (US and UK) have flagged high traffic areas frequented by foreigners and tourists in Nairobi and elsewhere in Kenya as target for the terror groups.

CT Brief: 1^st February – 14^th February

• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Foot Patrol with IED Near Yantooy District, Kismayo City, Juba State, Southern Somalia.
• On February 1^st, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Seven Somalian Forces While Repelling Attacks in Birhani District, Beledweyne City, Hiran State, Somalia.
• On February 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Police Station with IED Killing and Injuring Several in Beledweyne City, Hiran State, Somalia.
• On February 2^nd, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces and Destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack in Lasaqri City, Sanaag, Northeastern Somalia.
• On February 3^rd, Al-Shabaab Claimed to Have Killed Kenyan Forces and Officials and Destroyed Military Vehicles in an Ambush on the Road Between Aygari and Bodhei Cities, Lamu, Kenya.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in Halgan City, Hiran State, Somalia.
• On February 5^th, Al-Shabaab Claimed to Have Injured Kenyan Forces in Attacks on Military Bases in Eil Qalo, Dhamasa and Lafey Cities and in Elili District, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Somalian Military Base with IED in Beledweyne City, Hiran State, Somalia.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Nine Somalian Forces and destroyed Their Vehicle in an IED Attack on Their Military Convoy in Denili District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 6^th, Al-Shabaab Raided a Military Checkpoint Killing and Injuring Several Somalian Forces at the X Control Intersection, Harwa District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Officer Who Worked with the CIA Named Mahd in Hodan District in Addition to a Soldier in Bakara Market, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Militants Caught Planting an IED on the Road Near Fafi Town, Garissa County, NEP Kenya.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somali Official, Abdi Awal, and Injured Another in Wabri District, Derkinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 7^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted Somalian Barracks with IED in Baldawin City, Hiran State, Somalia.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces and Injured Seven Others in Two IED Attacks in Jowhar City, Middle Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On February 8^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Two Somalian Forces in an IED Attack in Bariri Town, Afgoye City, Mogadishu, Somalia.

• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Intelligence Element Named Hudhaifa Mahmoud Adam in Darkinli District, Mogadishu, Somali.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Forces Element in Sarkos Neighbourhood, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 9^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted a Military Base with Mortars in Janai Abdullah Town, Kismayo City, Juba State, Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Repelled Four Somalian Forces’ Attacks in Donlaye District, Wisil City, Mudug State, Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked a Somalian Forces Base in Lebgres District, Kismayo City, Juba State, Southern Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces While Repelling an Attack in Qansaxdheere City, Bay State, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 10^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated the Somalian Parliament Candidate, Mahmoud Muhammad Owais, in Dekinli, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Intelligence Officer Named Muhammad Mahmoud Gori, in Souk Hawlaha District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Leader Who Created Government Allied Forces in Jowhar City, Middle Shabelle State, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Three Somalian Forces, Including an Officer, and Destroyed a Motorcycle in an IED Attack in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 11^th, Al-Shabaab launched an attack featuring two vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and ground forces targeting a Jubaland State forces (JSF) base in Afmadow, Lower Jubba, southwestern Somalia. Six JSF soldiers killed.
• On February 12^th, Al-Shabaab Attacked Two Burundian and Somalian Military Bases Killing and Injuring Several in Balaad and Kismayo Cities, Juba State, Southern Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab Ambushed a Somalian Military Base Killing and Injuring Several in Odoyeni District, Denili, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Al-Shabaab Killed Six Somalian Forces and Seized a PIKA and Other Equipment in an Ambush in Bertdir District, Kismayo City, Juba State, Southern Somalia.
• On February 13^th, Terror Incident in Alongo-Arba area near Saretho in Garissa County NEP Kenya reported. Al-Shabāab al-Mujāhideen Terrorists detonated an IED targeting a Border Patrol Unit (BPU) team.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Assassinated a Somalian Police Element in Afgoye City, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Ethiopian Forces in an Attack on a Military Base in Wajid City, Bakool State, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Court Executed a Somalian Forces Element in Taqilo City, Bakool, Southwestern Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Repelled a Somalian Forces Attack in Qaad Town, Mudug State, Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Targeted an Ugandan Foot Patrol With IED in Janali City, Lower Shabelle State, South Somalia.
• On February 14^th, Al-Shabaab Killed and Injured Somalian Forces in Two IED Attacks in Yaqshid, Mogadishu and in Bald Hawa City in Banadir and Gedo States, Somalia.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Al-Shabaab has historically relied on a mix of asymmetrical tactics, including hit-and-run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks, to disrupt the Somali government and foreign military forces in the country. These attacks are often low-intensity, meaning they do not involve large numbers of fighters or sophisticated weaponry, but are frequent and designed to wear down the enemy over time.

However, Al-Shabaab has also demonstrated the ability to carry out well-coordinated and sophisticated attacks, including suicide bombings and complex assaults on high-value targets such as government buildings, military bases, and hotels. For example, in 2019, the group carried out a deadly attack on a hotel complex in Nairobi, Kenya, which involved multiple gunmen and suicide bombers.

In recent years, Al-Shabaab has also been able to expand its reach beyond Somalia and into neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia. This has allowed the group to carry out attacks on a low to wider scale and demonstrate its continued ability to threaten regional stability.

Overall, Al-Shabaab’s tactics are designed to disrupt the status quo and create instability, while also increasing the group’s profile and reputation as a force to be reckoned with. Despite ongoing efforts to combat the group, it remains a significant security threat in the region, and its ability to adapt and innovate suggests that it will continue to pose a challenge for the foreseeable future.

Combating Al-Shabaab’s increasing threat requires a comprehensive military strategy that combines military operations with political, economic, and social measures such as involving the local communities who have first hand HUMINT.