Bi-Week Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st September- 15th September 2021

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (1^st September- 15^th September 2021)

Mozambique

• 11^th Sept– Mozambique, Rwanda, and the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) were deployed in Niassa province to pursue militants who have been retreating following the growing CT operations.
• 12^th Sept- ISCAP militants launch two IEDs targeting joint convoys of Rwanda-Mozambique near Mbau and Diaca MDP
• 12^th Sept- militants attacked and set fires in Mucojo, Macomia the fires have become a common indicator of attacks and are used to scare off residents.

DRC

• 1^st Sept- at least 80 people were injured after ISCAP militants attacked motorists setting ablaze at least 15 cars along Luna-Komanda road in Beni.
• 1^st Sept- 1 person was shot and killed in Baoba village near Tchanitchani in Beni
• 2^ND Sept- 2 people were killed and a car set on fire in Ndalya in Walese Vonkuntu chiefdom in Ituri province.
• 3^rd Sept- terrorists ambushed a Congolese military patrol with IEDs killing at least 10 people and seizing weapons and military equipment near Bashu in Beni.
• 3^rd Sept- ISCAP militants attacked the Congolese Army and seized weaponry and equipment in Oicha, Beni in North Kivu Province.
• 4^th Sept- at least 14 people were brutally killed by jihadists in Luna-Samboko village, in the south of Irumu territory in Ituri.
• 8^th Sept- at least 30 people were brutally massacred by ISCAP militants in an attack against Christians in Walese Vonkuntu chiefdom in Ituri province.
• 8^th Sept- 7 civilians were killed in an attack in the locality of Mambume in Irumu territory. The militants looted and set fire to the local market
• 10^th Sept- 4 people were killed by militants in Kivwevwe village, in the chiefdom of Bashu, Beni territory
• 11^th Sept- 9 Christians were killed and several houses burned in an attack in Banande Kainama in Beni.
• 11^th Sept- ISCAP militants attacked a Congolese military barracks in Ndimu village in Irumu, Ituri province. The militants killed 4 people and wounded several others, seized weapons and ammo as well as burned several houses in the village.
• 13^th Sept- several vehicles were burnt by ISCAP militants in Mahala village located on the Luna-Komanda axis, south of Irumu territory in Ituri province. The vehicles were part of a convoy being given a military escort by the Congolese army.

INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS

ISCAP in Mozambique has used landmines and IEDs against the foreign intervention troops in what could be a new age for the militants who have consistently used brawls, gunfights, and beheadings as the primary mode of attacks. The development could put the troops at risk while reducing the casualties on the group’s side as is the case with their counterparts in Somalia. The use of landmines and/or IEDs is a new development for the Cabo Delgado insurgency.  The threat is further heightened by the fact that if the group has the supplies and expertise necessary to launch similar ambushes, such attacks could be a major threat to both Mozambican troops and foreign allies.

The residents of Beni have been demonstrating against the resurgence of the attacks especially the arson attacks on cars on the main road that joins North Kivu and Ituri Provinces. The outcry is particularly because the residents are yet to see the positive effects of the state of emergency declared in the region. The militants appear to have morphed and adapted to still conduct attacks against the civilians and military and remain elusive and evade any major attacks on them by the military and allied troops.

Intelligence has revealed that ISCAP has been using psychological warfare by matching loudly towards different areas. Residents have reported that matching boots have been heard from a distance which has been a signifier of the arrival of the militants and the cue for residents to run and hide. The threat and fear are further intensified by the recent movement of militants and the establishment of camps by the terror organization in Mwenda, Kikingi, and Kainama as well as along Nzobulo River in Ruwenzori sector, Tiko near Irumu Territory. The new camps are being used either as a launch pad for attacks in neighboring villages as well as transit points for the militants who have morphed to be more nomadic to avoid the attacks on large encampments by the CT efforts in the region.

Additionally, the establishment of new camps in the outskirts of the aforementioned areas appears to be a tactic that creates a fort to protect the major camps from attack rotating out fighters to protect the brass, logistics, and resources from being targeted by the military. Since the arrest of a huge number of collaborators during the state of emergency the outfit has been forced to be more spontaneous in their attacks and movements to avoid being attacks and ambushes by the military who have been questioning their captured comrades and sympathizers.

CONCLUSION

• In order to defeat ISCAP, the conflict in Mozambique and DRC ought to be addressed simultaneously, and as such DRC should leverage regional allies like Uganda and Kenya to aid in eliminating the insurgency. This would of course include Kinshasa allowing the military collaboration with Uganda and allowing the deployment of troops in the Eastern region seeing as recent developments show that a huge population of ISCAP militants are Ugandan and lack of cooperation might mean that the fighters might retreat to Uganda and creating an insurgency that hibernates and reemerges stronger.
• The increased kidnapping of the children and women in Beni and Ituri is a worrying trend as despite previous intelligence and photos showing a large number of children fighters in ISCAP will complicate CT operations as they could be used as a shield and by extension increase the collateral damage in the war against the insurgency.
• The establishment of new encampments and attacks on vehicles is a trend that continues to make the attacks by the group more stealthy and lethal as limited movement of civilians makes them greater targets of attacks by the militants.
• In Mozambique, the use of landmines and/or IEDs is a new innovation for the Cabo Delgado insurgency which could change the trajectory of the war. The use of Landmines and IEDs has proven an effective method of attack like in Somalia where al Shabaab and ISS use them to increase the attack casualties with reduced damage on their part. The use of explosives with slow down the joint operations by SAMIM-Rwandan-Mozambique intervention that was swiftly gaining against the militants in CD.
• The use of IEDs by the militants could adequately explain the reasons why the joint forces made great gains including the recapture of Mocimboa da Praia so quickly with few causalities on either side. Security assets in Cabo Delgado should now proceed with caution as the jihadists have shown their hand that they are not retreating quietly but rather the retreat was tactical to prepare the introduction of the landmines/IEDs which raises the stakes and intensifies the threat by the group.