Al-Shabaab Remains Active in Somalia, Surge Notable in Theater Towards the End of Ramadhan

In the Horn of Africa, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab maintains active presence especially in central and southern Somalia. The militant group continue to stage attacks in these and other regions of Somalia, and as well its building its ability to attack neighboring countries and international targets.

Al-Shabaab in Somalia is expected to continue exploiting coronavirus pandemic to consolidate control and demonstrate the ineffectiveness Federal Government of Somali (FGS). It will likely sustain its attack campaign in the capital Mogadishu and attempt to recapture positions recently lost to African Union forces (AMISOM).

Al-Shabaab’ propaganda on coronavirus aims to strengthen the group’s claim to provide responsive alternative governance in Somalia. There might be a backlash on the Somali Federal Government’s (SFG) pandemic response.

Al-Shabaab has directed blame for the pandemic toward the FGS’s foreign partners, including foreign troops present in Somalia; an Al-Shabaab leader, Sheikh Dhere also celebrated the pandemic’s effects in the U.S. and Europe on April 1.

Now that Ramadhan period is over, the Somali based Al-Shabaab may increase attacks in capital Mogadishu to underscore the SFG’s weakness and make headlines in this crisis period.

Notable Terror Events, Fatalities, Attack Patterns and Preferred Attack Types

The Al-Qaeda official branch in East Africa continues to record attacks in the Horn of Africa nation. Though sporadically and notably low-scale attacks, the group’s presence and activity have been maintained in at least six theaters. The group conducted at least 12 different attacks in different regions of Somalia signaling a surge during Ramadhan period. The militant group continues to demonstrate capability to adapt to Counter-Terrorism Operations by both AMISOM and AFRICOM supporting the weak Somali National Army (SNA). The group also has demonstrated its ability to conduct cross-border attacks by employing guerilla strategies, a critical point to take away for counterterrorism assets in the region.

Observation and Analysis

 Militant Islamist group activity in the Horn Africa continues to remain primarily concentrated in Mogadishu, Bay, Gedo, Galmudug, Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba. In the neighboring Kenya, groups activities have significantly dropped. However, the Kenyan frontier regions remain high risk areas and targets for the Somali-based Islamist militants.

Its notable, the number of casualties slightly increased in the last week of Ramadhan as compared to the first two weeks of the Holy month. The group targeted Somali officials, SNA, AMISOM and also civilians.

In the Somali capital Mogadishu, the groups activity reduced in the last week of Ramadhan with two attacks being recorded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of a suicide bombing in Mogadishu. A senior police officer identified only as Jabiri was killed alongside another officer after IED fitted into their car exploded at Muna Hotel, near the presidential palace on Thursday, morning 28^th May 2020.

Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a prominent tribal elder in Mogadishu identified as Hussein Mohamed Da’ud and his bodyguard. They were shot dead by suspected Al-Shabaab assassins armed with pistols. The slain elder was among the Electoral College delegates voted for current Somali MPs in 2016-17. The militant group also targets prominent people such as the electoral delegates and lawmakers citing the dynamics of clan’s politics which are key in Somalia. In the capital, there was scale-up security, and possibly this the reason that characterized a decline in militant’s activity.

In Middle Shabelle region of Somalia, the Al-Shabaab militants favor guerilla ambushes and land mines and take cover in the thickets and vegetation. They militants take advantage of the terrain and geographical advantages to mount elaborate ambushes targeting AMISOM and SNA troops CT operations in the region.

During the last week of Ramadhan, Al-Shabaab claimed at least four attacks in Middle Shabelle. On Monday 25^th May 2020, in Muku Dhere locality of Middle Shabelle region, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab raided a water well, killed the owner of the well and abducted his sons, according to local sources. Though the cause of the killing has not be ascertained, its highly likely that the militants will forcibly enroll his children into the terror camps.

The militants in a roadside explosion targeted SNA military vehicle in the vicinity of Balad (Balcad) town late Tuesday, 26^th May 2020.  The roadside bomb killed 5 soldiers wounded others when their vehicle hit the IED. These are repeat attacks. Al-Shabaab has previously targeted Somali government forces and AMISOM troops in the same vicinity with IEDs. The militants in a separate attack also executed Somali soldiers in the outskirts of Bal’ad town and Dhobley. Bal’ad District is one of the districts of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia located about 36 kilometers northeast of the capital city of Mogadishu.

On 28th May 2020, the Islamist militants kidnapped and executed eight healthcare workers near Gololey in central Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region on May 28. Seven of the executed men worked for Zamzam foundation, a local humanitarian organization. A regional state spokesman blamed Al-Shabaab for the kidnapping and execution.

In Bay region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab recorded at least two attacks. In both attacks, civilians were the casualties. Credible intelligence source report indicate that Al-Shabaab operatives ambushed a group of men transporting Khat in Somalia’s Bay province. One person was killed and two others were wounded in the ambush raided near the town of Wardiile. The vehicle and Khat was then seized by the Islamist militants.

The second attack happened in Baidoa, the capital in the southwestern Bay region of Somalia. The militant group claimed a landmine attack that killed four civilians and wounded others. Baidoa has a hot and semi-arid climate as with much of southern Somalia. By contrast, towns in the northern part of the country generally have a hot arid climate. The locality has vast bushy thicket from which Al-Shabaab exploit to their advantage.

Bay regions is bordered by the Somali regions of Bakool, Hiran, Lower Shebelle (Shabeellaha Hoose), Middle Juba (Jubbada Dhexe), and Gedo. Major towns include; Baidoa,  Dinsoor, Burhakaba, Berdaal and Qasahdhere thus region economic activities (in form of taxes) benefits the Islamist Al-Shabaab.

In Lower Juba region of Somalia, the Islamist group registered at least three attacks. The attacks were notable as the militants attempted to probe on AMISOM-Forward Operating Bases. At about 1910 hrs, Al-Shabaab militants probed Hoosingo FOB from east direction with PKMs. Hosingo military base is located in the southeastern Lower Juba region of Somalia and is close to the Kenyan border. The base is manned by Kenyan troops.

In another incident, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab on 22^nd May 2020 at around 2000 hours probed AMISOM’s Kolbio (Kulbiyow) Forward Operating Base (FOB) using PKM rounds.

The FOB held by Somali Armed Forces and the Kenya Defense Forces has been a target of the Al-Shabaab Islamists militants. On 27^th January 2017, the militants attacked the military base and briefly took control of Kolbio town.

In Lower Juba region, on 25^th May 2020, at around 0135hrs, approximately 20 Al-Shabaab militants probed Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) recruits’ camps for about 15 minutes. Using RPGs, PKM and AK 47 rifles the Al-Qaeda aligned insurgents attacked the military from the southern side of the camp triggering a heavy fight with the security forces. A KDF platoon force drawn from Sector 2 and Jubaland police responded for reinforcement where they managed to repulse the night raid.

At least one recruit was slightly injured during the attack. The probing was probably aimed at testing the alertness of the camp and establishing their fire power. AMISOM sector 2 is based in the southern border town of Dhobley in Jubaland State of Somalia and is manned by Kenya Defense Forces. Under the Somalia Transition Plan (STP), AMISOM and the Somali Security Forces conduct several joint operations as part of the efforts to disrupt and degrade terrorist and armed groups.

In Gedo region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab claimed at least two attacks. The militants claimed an IED attack that targeted the Deputy Commander of South-west region’s Darawish Forces in Bardaale. The government official was killed in the IED explosion in the vicinity of Bulohawo, a village located on the road to Qansahdhere. On 28/5/20 at around 2230 hrs, Al-Shabaab militants threw a hand grenade in Burahache town targeting SNA soldiers thus injuring two. However, SNA soldiers responded immediately which led to the militants run towards Dhamasa.

Gedo is an administrative region in southern Somalia. Its regional capital is Garbahaarreey. It was created in 1974 and is bordered by the Ogaden in Ethiopia, the North Eastern Province in Kenya, and the Somali regions of Bakool, Bay, Jubbada Dhexe, and Jubbada Hoose further down east and the region has many economic activities among them, nomadic activity. Al-Shabaab benefits from proceeds of taxes from Gedo locals.

In Galmudug, is a federal state in central Somalia, Al-Shabaab claimed at least one attack. Al-Shabaab publicly executed a man identified as Mohamed Jinow Jimale. The execution took place in El-bur district (Ceelbur). Galmudug is bordered to the north by the Puntland state, to the west by the Somali Region in Ethiopia, to the east by Somali Sea and to the south by Hirshabelle state.

The population in this region main activities include; agricultural, nomadic, and urban sedentary and this is attractive for terrorists to operate in citing the mentioned economic activities that benefits the group.

In Lower Shabelle region of Somalia, attacks towards the last week of Ramadhan significantly declined with one terror event being recorded as compared to four attack mid-Ramadhan period. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed at least 5 Somali military soldiers and injuring 8 others after massive IED explosion destroyed their vehicle in the road between KM-50 area and Awdheegle town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region.

Lower Shabelle is an administrative region in southern Somalia. The region lies to the west, northwest, and southwest of Mogadishu. It is bordered to the south by the Juba region, to the east by the Indian Ocean and Mogadishu, the Middle Shabelle region to the north and the Bay region to the west. The topography is composed of plains, coastal areas and semi-desert stretches such as the Brava district. The region comprises of eight districts: Marka (the regional capital), Afgooye, Wanle Weyn, Qoryoley, Sablale, Brava, Kurtun Warrey and Awdheegle. It has an estimated population of about 800,000 to 900,000. The population is classified under four categories; nomadic agriculture, agricultural farming, nomadic, and urban sedentary and with the listed economic activities, Al-Shabaab fights persistently to maintain control. The region also favors Al-Shabaab militant’s guerilla ambushes, considering the thickets and vegetation in this locality.

Lower Shabelle has been an epicenter of Al-Shabaab’s operations. The region has been recording approximately one attack per day in the month of April but following concerted joint Counter-insurgency (COIN) operations, attacks in the month of May significantly dropped. The region attacks trends continue to record of repeat attacks. On April 1, Al-Shabaab using an IE targeted SNA troops returning to their base in Awdheegle. Casualties were reported from that raid.

It’s notable that, Al-Shabaab continues to deploy SVBIEDs IED, RCIEDs and Landmines as preferred attack types. Security forces both SNA and AMISOM remains the group’s key target. Notable is the group’s diminishing capability to conduct spectacular suicide borne vehicular suicide bombings, assaults on infantry troops, and raids on local military camps and police stations. The three probes; on JSF recruits camp and AMISOM-FOBs in Lower Juba were low-scale attacks that were swiftly responded. This means a decline in those militant’s capabilities, a major gain to the counterterrorism operators in the region.

Conclusion and Forecast

The article discusses some of the features that are relevant to the terrorism activities perpetrated by these Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Al-Shabaab. Further, it demonstrates the contribution of deaths and injuries of innocent Somali’s and at times displacement of locals. More robust kinetic counterterrorism operations besides CT-Counter Intelligence operations are urgent in the mapped towns/localities of the regions.

It is highly possible that Al-Shabaab will attempt to capitalize on backlash to the FGS pandemic response to push it agenda of toppling the government and present itself as the more legitimate alternative governing force in Somalia.

The militant group on the other hand may suffer its own delegitimization f its efforts—potentially including disrupting much needed aid seen as causing harm in the areas it controls. The pandemic may reduce targets available for Al-Shabaab’s campaigns, potentially leading to fewer attacks (especially if the planned 2020 elections are postponed).

The pandemic’s strain on neighboring countries; Kenya and Ethiopia may create an opportunity for the Islamist militants to continue expanding its operations outside Areas of Responsibility (AOR) in Somalia. The group has already conducted a number of operations so far this year in Kenyan border counties of Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Lamu.

The pandemic may also delay Al-Shabaab’s efforts to execute a spectacular attack in Kenya (citing no large crowds/gatherings) to target.