The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab has remained active with a number of low-scale attacks being recorded during the Holy month of Ramadhan in Kenya and Somalia theaters.
Al-Shabaab militant group has continued to launch attacks in Somalia, hindering humanitarian efforts to fight the spread of Coronavirus. It is evident that Al-Shabaab is not ready to embrace UN Secretary General’s call for a ceasefire, instead in a propaganda tactic, it has accused foreign fighters of importing the disease to Somalia.
After a lull towards the last week of April and first week of May, a surge in its operations has been witnessed whereby it has conducted attacks targeting critical infrastructure in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures and a number of bombings in their home-base, Somalia.
Kenya, Somalia Security Brief:
Key Notes: Events Recorded Between May 8th and May 20th 2020
- Important entry includes; location/regions, the targeted groups and number of casualties (Fatalities) Those killed and ones injured.
- Data based on terror events recorded subsequently used to create graphical representation for analysis.
- The purpose of the graph is to establish terrorists’ attack trends and patterns.
- To help map regions mostly attacked and identify most preferred attack type by the Somali-based militant group, Al-Shabaab.
Brief Analysis on Al-Shabaab’s Terror Events, Fatalities, Attack Patterns and Preferred Attack Types
Despite the Coronavirus soaring in Somalia, the militant group has recorded a number of attacks targeting government forces and allied partner troops. The militant group has also conducted notable cross-border attacks in Kenya.
Though sporadically and notably low-scale attacks in terms of casualties, security assets need to come up with a robust counterterrorism strategy to halt them before they escalate at a time both East African countries are struggling with the current global Coronavirus pandemic.
Trends and Observations Worth Noting
The Islamists militant activity in the Somalia continues to remain primarily concentrated in four theaters: Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba. In the neighboring Kenya, groups activities gave significantly dropped. However, the Kenya frontier counties of Wajir, Garissa and Mandera remain high risk areas and targets for the Somali-based Islamist militants.
Despite the persistent level of activity, casualties linked to the militant group so far this year have declined steadily as compared to last year, of the same period.
The ultimate targets of the militants remain Somali government officials, installations, Somali security forces and AMISOM troops, Somali population (civilians) has also suffered the heavy brunt of the Al-Qaeda aligned militants, though the number of civilian casualties has significantly reduced in May. In Kenya northeastern prefectures, the militants continue to target security forces, especially those on patrol duties, police posts and critical infrastructures in the region; most notably communication masts.
Situation Summary: 8th – May 20
According to terror events recorded between May 8th and May 20th, Al-Shabaab has been active in Somalia with at least nine attacks being recorder from across a number of regions. During this period, the terrorist group has conducted at least 2attacks in the capital Mogadishu with at least five casualties being recorded. In one attack, Al-Shabaab targeted a Somali police officer with an IED explosion. One police officer was killed and three others injured in the blast. Also, in the capital, Al-Shabaab killed a former sports official in targeted assassination.
Lower Shabelle an administrative region in southern Somalia has recorded the highest number of attacks during this period. Al-Shabaab during this period has recorded at least four attacks. The militant group claimed one attack on a foreign military base in Ambareeso in Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. This is a repeat attack. The militant group has attacked the same base belonging to the Ugandan troops late in April.
In the same region of Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab claimed a suicide attack on a police station in Qoryoley district. In another attack, the militant through its pro-media claimed ambush raid on SNA in Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle. Casualties were recorded. The fourth attack targeted AMISOM-Ugandan troops in Marka, Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab operatives targeted AMISOM truck that was on a supply mission.
Al-Shabaab claimed a suicide car bomb on Governor’s vehicle. Governor of Mudug region of Puntland Ahned Muse Nur was killed alongside his three bodyguards. The SVBIED occurred in Galkayo in northern Somalia. This is the second Al-Shabaab attack targeting a senior Puntland official in recent months. On March 29, Al-Shabaab killed a former Governor of Nugal region, Abdisalam Hassan Hirsi in Puntland State Capital, Garowe ina targeted assassination.
In Middle Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab claimed it used a bomb to try and assassinate a Hirshabelle regional state MP in Bal’ad, but failed.
In Lower Juba region of Somalia, Al-Shabaab claimed one attack. Al-Shabaab targeted Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) at Beles Qoqani, Somalia. Approximately 20 Al-Shabaab fighters attacked JSF positions but were intercepted by the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) DP night patrol killing at least three militants.
In Kenya, Al-Shabaab during the same period, Al-Shabaab has claimed at least three attacks; two in Wajir and one in Garissa. In one attack, the Islamist militants attacked a KDF morning CT patrol team between Konton and Wajir town in northeastern frontier, bordering Somalia. During the attack, two vehicles were decommissioned by a remotely controlled improvised device (RCIED) and subsequently three troops were injured.
In the Wajir county prefecture, Al-Shabaab militants bombed and destroyed a Safaricom Telecommunication Mast on May 16. The militants also fired RPGs at Khorofar Police Station. No fatalities were reported on the pre-dawn attack. Last month, Police reservists battled Al-Shabaab fighters in Qaqabey Wajir. At least six people and four militants were killed.
The northeastern counties of Kenya, (Mandera, Garissa and Wajir) have borne the brunt of frequent attacks from Al-Shabaab militants in recent years. This year, so far, the number of attacks has decreased.
In Garissa NE, another border county of Kenya, Al-Shabaab targeted police officers on patrol between Bura-East – Garissa Lappset road. The police Landcruiser vehicle missed a homemade bomb that was planted on the road. The militants reportedly engaged the police in a shootout. The officers were from Bura East Police Station.
Preferred Attack Types
It’s notable that, Al-Shabaab continues to deploy IED, RCIEDs, SVBIEDs and Landmines as preferred attack types. Security forces both SNA and AMISOM remains the group’s key target. Mogadishu, Middle and Lower Shabelle remains and Lower Juba the group’s strong operational areas of Somalia.
Conclusion
The article discusses some of the features that are relevant to the terrorism activities perpetrated by these Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Al-Shabaab. Further, it briefly demonstrates the contribution of deaths and injuries of both security assets as well as innocent Somali’s and at times displacement of locals fearing for their lives; thus, it illustrates the dire need for comprehensive counterterrorism approaches in Kenya and Somalia.
Due to the complexity and lethality of terrorism in the named regions of the two countries, there is a need to reconsider new strategies such as human security-based intelligence (HUMINT and SOCMINT) approaches, which are prerequisite for effective counterterrorism fight considering locals sympathisers are huge facilitators for attacks in various regions of Somalia and NEP Kenya, that have always targeted security forces and at times in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa, non-locals have paid the ultimate price.
