Increased terror attacks in Africa continue to be recorded amid the Coronavirus pandemic. As the world direct its energies on the fight to curb the Coronavirus, in West Africa, Boko Haram insurgents have stepped up attacks, Islamists affiliated to the ISIS also continue to claim new territory in Mozambique while the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to register sporadic attacks in the Horn of Africa nation. There are fears of more attacks should security from individual nations continue to be overstretched. There is a looming threat and great risk especially to the African countries with scarce resources now that they have a new frontline on their doorstep – the battle to stem the flow of COVID-19 and the prior to combat the Islamist militants.
Horn of Africa Security Brief:
Key Notes: Events Recorded Between April 1st and April 10th 2020
- Important entry include, date when the attacks happened, regions, the target and number of casualties.
- Data variables of major regions subsequently to create graph representation of the recorded terror events.
- The purpose of the graph is to establish terrorists’ attack trends and patterns.
- To help map regions mostly attacked and most preferred attack type by the Somali-based militant group, Al-Shabaab.
Recorded Terrorism Events Between 1st April -10th April 2020
Brief Analysis on HSM Terror Events, Attack Patterns and Preferred Attack Types
The Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continues to record attacks in the Horn of Africa nation. Though sporadically and notably low-scale attacks, security assets need to come up with a strategy to avert them before they escalate at a time Somalia like any other nation is grappling with the current Coronavirus pandemic.
According to terror events in the month of April so far, (April 1st to April 10th 2020) Al-Shabaab terrorist group remains active in Somali’s capital Mogadishu. During this period, the terrorist group has conducted at least three attacks in the capital Mogadishu with 2 casualties being recorded. At least seven, notably Somali security forces suffered injuries from these attacks.
In Mogadishu, the Al-Shabaab mainly used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), car bombs targeting government security forces. They take advantage of road intersections and crowded market places where they can easily blend in with the crowd. Mogadishu with a population of about 2,587,183 witnesses high number civilian casualties recorded compared to other regions of Somalia.
Lower Shabelle is an administrative region in southern Somalia. The region lies to the west, northwest, and southwest of Mogadishu. It is bordered to the south by the Juba region, to the east by the Indian Ocean and Mogadishu, the Middle Shabelle region to the north and the Bay region to the west. The topography is composed of plains, coastal areas and semi-desert stretches such as the Brava district. Lower Shabelle has an estimated population of 800,000 to 900,000. The population main activities include; nomadic agricultural, agricultural, nomadic, and urban sedentary. This makes region attractive for terrorists to operate in citing the many mentioned economic activities that benefits the terrorist group.
In the same period of about ten days, three attacks with five casualties being recorded in Lower Shabelle. Another five were also wounded in the attacks. In Janaale, the militant group AMISOM-Ethiopian troops and convoys with no death being reported.
In Middle and Lower Shabelle regions of Somalia, the Al-Shabaab militants favor guerilla ambushes and land mines and take cover in the thickets and vegetation. They militants take advantage of the terrain and geographical advantages to mount elaborate ambushes targeting AMISOM and SNA troops operational in the areas.
Middle Shabelle is located in the central regions of Somalia. The region borders Galgadud to the north, Hiran to the west, Lower Shabelle and Banadir regions to the south and the Indian with a population estimated at around 1.5 million. The region consists of seven districts: Jowhar – the regional capital, Balad, Adale, Aden Yabal, Warseikh, Run-Nigrod and Mahaddey. The region supports livestock production, rain-fed and irrigated agriculture and fisheries. The region is harbors Al-Shabaab citing the economic activities carried out from this region from which they extort the locals for their survival.
Due to the nomadic nature of a vast majority of Somalia’s population Middle Shabelle region offers good cover for militants traveling and moving weapons or planning attacks.
For instance, in places like Gedo Region, the militants have on more occasions than not exploited the rocky and valleys of the region to camouflage their movements, training camps as well as their cache of weapons. Every week, at least 1-3 attacks are reported in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia.
Puntland, Northern region of Somalia also recorded at least one attack. The region also harbors the pro-ISIS faction also operating in the Galgala mountains.
It’s notable that, Al-Shabaab continues to deploy IED, Landmines and car bombs as preferred attack types. Security forces both SNA and AMISOM remains the group’s key target. Mogadishu, Middle and Lower Shabelle remains the group’s strong operational areas of Somalia.
