On 2nd March 2020 between 1130HRS and 1145HRS, Strategic Intelligence assets reported there was an exchange of gunfire between Jubbaland Security Forces (JSF) and Somalia National Army (SNA) in Bulla Hawo town which lies exactly along the Kenya-Somalia border. At 1300HRS EAT, there was no reports of casualties on either side.
Between 1145HRS & 1230HRS, a suspected-state actor remotely jammed, from inside Somalia, the Safaricom Base Transmission Station mast (BTS) in Mandera along the border rendering communication in the area temporarily impossible. The mast serves residents who use the border area including herders and traders.
- These two events are related, thus qualify to be linked to Somalia National Army (SNA) belligerents and their proxies within the rank and file in the Al-Qaeda branch Harakat Shabaab Al-Mujahideen.
- That the intention of jamming the Safaricom masts was to facilitate the orchestrating of an attack against Jubbaland Security Forces (JSF) who late last week re-deployed to the area after they tactically withdrew earlier in the year. JSF is actively involved in fighting the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Al-Mujahideen terrorists hence a strategic partner of various Counter Terrorism Actors in Somalia.
- That, initial assessment and intelligence reports confirm that this is a hostile event aimed at the Republic of Kenya and amounts to an act of war.
- This event has happened hours after a dozen Members of Parliament from the NEP travelled to Mogadishu and met the leadership of the failed state (which is currently posturing against Nairobi).
In light of such aggression a country and its people has a right to spearhead robust measures to protect its people and sovereignty. Kenya, the largest economy in East Africa and the most able military force in the region is often restrained in its regional reactions particularly border conflicts that may have adverse geopolitical ramifications. However, continued aggression may prompt Nairobi to change tact, drop diplomacy and opt aggressive strategies to stymie any threat on its national security.
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