Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the Month of October 2024

Executive Summary

In October 2024, East and Central Africa faced intensified violence from ISIS-linked groups in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Somalia, which fueled both security and humanitarian crises across these regions. Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province experienced a spike in Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) attacks, targeting both military forces and civilians with ambushes, IEDs, and house burnings. While Mozambican and Rwandan forces continued counterinsurgency efforts, Rwanda sent additional troops funded by a recent €20 million EU aid package. Despite these measures, ISM’s continued assaults signal a need for expanded counterinsurgency tactics and stronger local engagement to protect civilians.

In the DRC, ISIS-Central Africa Province (ISCAP) ramped up its assaults on civilian and military targets across North Kivu and Ituri provinces, with frequent attacks on Christian communities and ongoing ambushes. The resulting displacement and food insecurity have placed intense strain on local populations. Joint efforts by the Congolese and Ugandan forces, with support from MONUSCO and SADC, have disrupted some ISCAP operations, though the group’s mobile tactics and use of guerrilla warfare continue to challenge stability efforts.

Somalia witnessed a marked rise in ISIS presence in Puntland, with numbers doubling over the past year due to recruitment and foreign fighter influx. President Said Abdullahi Deni’s announcement of a new counterterrorism campaign underscores Somalia’s commitment to containing ISIS’s growing influence in the region. With the U.S. monitoring ISIS’s increased recruitment and potential alliances with other regional militant actors, including Houthis across the Gulf of Aden, Somalia’s regional security outlook remains fragile.

These developments highlight the pressing need for coordinated international support and enhanced regional security measures. While military actions have seen some success, ISIS-affiliated groups’ adaptability calls for broader strategies that combine counterinsurgency with humanitarian and stabilization efforts to support affected communities.

MOZAMBIQUE

•  04^th Oct- Suspected ISM militants captured and executed a Christian resident in Man’Guna in Palma, Cabo Delgado Province.
• 14^th Oct- ISM militants claimed that they detonated two explosive devices on patrols of the Mozambican and Rwandan armies, between the villages of Manica and Napala, in the Macomia district, which damaged an armored vehicle and injured several soldiers.
• 14^th Oct- Farmers from Macomia, in Cabo Delgado, reported intense clashes in recent days between the military and alleged terrorist groups operating in the region, causing fear among the population.
• 14^th Oct- ISM militants clashed with Mozambican and Rwandan Army Forces in Manica, Macomia, Cabo Delgado.
• 14^th Oct- ISM militants clashed with Mozambican and Rwandan Army Forces in Limala area in Mocimboa da Praia, Cabo Delgado.
• 14^th Oct- ISM terrorists detonated two IEDs targeting Mozambican and Rwandan troops between Manica and Nambala areas in Macomia district. A vehicle was destroyed in the attack.
• 24^th Oct- ISM terrorists targeted civilians at a bar in an attack in Awasse in Mocimboa da Praia where at least three people were killed.
•  25^th Oct- ISM militants led an armed assault against civilians in Nkoe area of Macomia district. They claimed to have burned over 7 houses in the attack.
• 26^th Oct- one person was killed, several others injured and over a dozen houses razed to the ground following an attack by ISM militants in Mumo village in Mocimboa da Praia.
• 26^th Oct- at least three people were beheaded by ISM insurgents in Mandela village in Muidumbe just north of Messalo River.
• 27^th Oct- ISM militants conducted and armed attack and bombing on allied Mozambican and Nagulue area in Macomia district. intelligence revealed that the attacked included machine guns, RPGs and IEDs.

D.R. CONGO

• 01^st Oct- ISCAP militants captured and executed a Christian in Mambelenga, Ituri Province.
• 01^st Oct- FARDC said that they killed 27 ISCAP fighters, captured 37 others and freed hostages in the Biakato forest in Mambasa territory during the month of September in Ituri.
• 03^rd Oct- ISCAP militants captured and executed 15 Christians, in Anditongo, Mambasa, Ituri Province.
• 03^rd Oct- at least 10 people killed after ISCAP militants led armed assault on the Christian Village, of in Ofaye Otto Maber, Ituri Province.
• 13^TH Oct– Three ISCAP fighters were killed and an AK-47 weapon was recovered during clashes with FARDC-UPDF coalition near the towns of Mangadi and Mabutuwa, in the Bapere sector, Lubero territory.
• 07^TH Oct- ISCAP militants attacked the villages of Makilima and Makoko in the chiefdom of Babila Babombi (Mambasa territory), where they killed at least three civilians.
• 11^th Oct- one person was captured and killed by ISCAP militants near Lolwa In Ituri province.
• 18^th Oct- militants led an armed assault on Congolese Army Forces near Esege, Lubero Region, North-Kivu Province.
• 19^th Oct- Two people were killed after ISCAP attacked civilians in Mambelenga in Ituri province.
• 24^th Oct- at least one person was captured and executed by ISCAP rebels in Mugamba village in Ituri province.
• 25^th Oct- ISCAP militants attacked, captured and executed three Christians in Ndalya in Ituri province.
• 26^th Oct- three Christians were captured and executed in Sesa area of Ituri by ISCAP insurgents.
• 27^th Oct- at least 2 Christians were captured and executed by ISCAP militants in Bandimabisi area of Ituri Province.
• 28^th Oct- at least 2 Christians were executed by ISCAP militants in Bandimabisi area of Ituri Province.
• 30^th Oct- ISCAP Militants led an armed assault against Congolese troops in Mohoyo in Ituri province.

SOMALIA

• 26^th Oct- Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni announced a comprehensive military campaign aimed at eradicating the threat posed by Islamic State in Somalia (IS-Somalia) in the region.
• 01^st Oct- AFRICOM Chief revealed that intelligence indicated that Islamic State had doubled in size in north Somalia.

ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS

Mozambique

In October, Islamic State (IS) Mozambique carried out a series of small-scale attacks across central and northern Cabo Delgado. The group claimed responsibility for attacks targeting Mozambican and Rwandan forces, as well as civilian areas. These attacks involved killings, house burnings, and beheadings, though some claims remain unverified. IS also continued targeting Mozambican and Rwandan patrols with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and ambushes, including a substantial assault near Mucojo on October 26. Security operations remain underway, particularly on the Macomia coast, as authorities work to manage the persistent insurgent threat.

Rwanda recently sent additional reinforcements to Mucojo in Macomia District, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. This deployment is part of Rwanda’s ongoing military operations to combat the Islamist insurgency that has plagued the region since 2017. The reinforcements, estimated at around 500 troops, are expected to establish a new base in the coastal town of Mucojo, which has seen frequent clashes between Mozambican forces and insurgents. The move comes amid a resurgence of violence by insurgent groups, some of which are linked to Islamic State.

The European Union recently approved a €20 million aid package to support Rwandan forces deployed in northern Mozambique. This financial backing comes after lengthy negotiations in Brussels, where Rwanda agreed to ensure the funds would be used exclusively for operations in Cabo Delgado. The money will primarily assist in the logistics and equipping of Rwandan troops, who have been vital in combating insurgents in the region since their deployment in July 2021. This support aligns with the EU’s broader commitment to counter-terrorism and restoring stability in Mozambique, a region that has seen increased violence due to Islamist insurgencies. Rwanda had been financing its own military operations in Mozambique, and this aid from the EU comes as a crucial boost to sustain these efforts.

After five months of closure of health facilities in Macomia District due to the terrorist attack on May 10 this year, the health facility at the District headquarters has finally reopened. The reopening brings relief to the local population, who were facing serious difficulties in accessing essential medical care. This milestone represents a new chapter for residents, especially pregnant women, who were forced to give birth in precarious and dangerous conditions in their own homes.

Following the October 9 elections, widespread unrest broke out in Cabo Delgado, especially in Montepuez, Pemba, and Mocímboa da Praia, as dissatisfaction mounted over the results, which handed a decisive victory to Frelimo and its candidate Daniel Chapo. Violent protests erupted, with one protester killed in Montepuez and police using rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse demonstrators. In Balama district, grievances over inadequate compensation for land requisition led locals to blockade the Syrah Resources graphite mine.

The election results themselves have been contentious, with allegations of ballot stuffing and other irregularities raised by Podemos, the opposition party led by Venâncio Mondlane, who called for strikes in response. The election saw a shift in the opposition landscape, as Podemos overtook Renamo in both the presidential race and National Assembly seats. Concerns over the electoral process were detailed in a minority report from the National Elections Commission (CNE), which highlighted issues such as pre-filled ballots and vote discrepancies.

The final election results are now awaiting validation by the Constitutional Council, a process expected to take several weeks as courts address ongoing electoral disputes. Overall, Cabo Delgado faces a tense political and security landscape, with insurgent violence, election-related unrest, and political challenges all contributing to an atmosphere of instability.

Somalia

The Islamic State in Somalia (ISIS-Somalia) has doubled in size over the past year, with AFRICOM commander General Michael Langley noting a substantial increase in its northern Somalia presence. Although exact numbers were not disclosed, previous estimates placed ISIS-Somalia’s fighters at around 200, suggesting current figures are roughly double. Langley expressed concern over the possibility of more foreign fighters joining ISIS-Somalia, with Somali Brigadier General Abdi Hassan Hussein estimating that hundreds of foreign fighters could already be operating in Puntland, though local authorities have not confirmed this.

The United States previously targeted Abdulqadir Mumin, the ISIS-Somalia leader, in a May airstrike, but he survived. Mumin is believed to be considered a significant figure by the Islamic State, potentially even in a global leadership capacity.

The regional security environment could become more complex if ISIS-Somalia collaborates with other actors, such as Iranian-backed Houthi militants across the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis have recently escalated attacks on maritime vessels, creating concerns about disruptions in the Gulf of Aden that might impede global commerce if alliances with groups like ISIS-Somalia emerge. U.S. officials continue to monitor these developments closely.

DRC

In October 2024, ISCAP’s intensified attacks across the North Kivu and Ituri provinces have heavily impacted civilian safety and destabilized the local infrastructure. Notably, ISCAP’s presence in and around Oicha has escalated food insecurity by cutting off access to agricultural fields, leaving many residents dependent on scarce aid and unable to resume livelihoods. As a result, the World Food Programme (WFP) faced disruptions in its aid distribution due to heightened risks, with some aid vehicles targeted by protesting civilians frustrated by the deteriorating conditions and food shortages.

The ongoing conflict has compounded displacement, with over 1.9 million people affected across North Kivu, many struggling with limited access to humanitarian relief. Over 20% of Beni’s population is now classified as critically food-insecure, creating a dire need for consistent aid and stability.

In response to the crisis, joint security operations against ISCAP have increased. The FARDC and UPDF’s “Operation Shujaa” targeted ISCAP camps in North Kivu and Ituri, with ground and air offensives aiming to dismantle ISCAP’s supply chains and secure major routes. These operations have hampered some ISCAP movements but face logistical and tactical challenges due to rugged terrain and ISCAP’s ability to disperse into small, mobile units that evade direct confrontation.

In parallel, MONUSCO collaborated with FARDC in “Operation Spider Web” in Ituri, reclaiming key areas previously under ISCAP’s control. However, MONUSCO troops still struggle with ISCAP’s ambushes and guerrilla tactics, which prevent straightforward engagements and continue to endanger civilians in nearby regions.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces have played a supportive role, assisting FARDC with logistics and intelligence to predict ISCAP movements more accurately. UPDF has highlighted obstacles like severe weather that hinders air operations and a limited road network that restricts rapid response. Nevertheless, the combined military actions aim to stabilize the region and reopen cross-border trade routes, which are crucial for local economic recovery.

While the coalition has made some progress in dismantling ISCAP strongholds, ISCAP’s agility in reorganizing in small clusters continues to challenge security forces, indicating the need for sustained, coordinated efforts to curb the insurgency and alleviate civilian suffering in the DRC’s eastern provinces.

ISCAP has emerged as a significant perpetrator of violence against children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with 37 documented violations in August 2024. This is according to a report by the United Nations Joint Human Rights Office (UNJHRO) and MONUSCO’s Child Protection Section. The group’s involvement in abductions, recruitment of child soldiers, and other grave violations reflects its long-standing strategy of terrorizing local populations, particularly in the eastern provinces like North Kivu and Ituri. The ISCAP’s increasing use of children not only fuels their insurgency but also deepens instability in the region. Their connection to transnational terror networks, including alleged ties to ISIS, complicates efforts to counter their influence, making them a major concern for both local and international actors seeking to stabilize the region.

The joint assessment of Shujaa operations by the FARDC and the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) on October 10-11, 2024, highlighted significant advances against the ISCAP. Lieutenant-General Kayanja Muhanga emphasized the need for ongoing collaboration to combat the ISCAP and its affiliates, particularly the ISCAP terrorist faction.

Lieutenant-General Kayanja Muhanga’s remarks underline the importance of continued cooperation between the DRC and Uganda to tackle not only the ISCAP but also its affiliated groups, specifically the ISCAP terrorist faction. This commitment, reinforced by the recent meeting between military leaders, reflects a broader geopolitical strategy to restore stability in the region, which has been plagued by violence and humanitarian crises. The collaboration signals a recognition of the interconnectedness of regional security and the necessity for sustained military and intelligence efforts. However, the effectiveness of these operations will depend on the ability to maintain momentum and adapt strategies to address the ISCAP’s evolving tactics. Continued support from both governments will be crucial in ensuring a long-term resolution to the threat posed by the ADF and its affiliates.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Mozambique experienced a sharp increase in ISM attacks on both military personnel and civilians. Clashes with Mozambican and Rwandan forces persisted, with ISM leveraging improvised explosive devices and conducting ambushes. The EU’s recent financial aid to Rwandan forces, amid a resurgence in local insurgent activity, highlights ongoing international support but underscores the need for effective, coordinated security measures.

In the DRC, ISCAP intensified its attacks, especially in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, exacerbating humanitarian crises and food insecurity. Security operations by the FARDC, UPDF, MONUSCO, and SADC achieved some tactical successes but are hindered by terrain and ISCAP’s guerilla tactics. Continued insurgent adaptability underscores the need for enhanced intelligence capabilities and sustained international support.

Somalia saw the Islamic State doubling its numbers in Puntland, posing an increased regional threat. President Said Abdullahi Deni’s announcement of a military offensive reflects a heightened commitment to countering IS’s expansion. However, this challenge could be amplified by potential alliances with other regional extremist groups.

Recommendations

1. Increase International Support for Stabilization in Mozambique: Enhanced intelligence-sharing and logistical support for Mozambican and Rwandan forces could strengthen responses to insurgent activities in Cabo Delgado.
2. Strengthen Humanitarian Assistance in the DRC: Given the widespread displacement and food insecurity, intensified efforts from international agencies are needed to address immediate civilian needs and aid distribution challenges.
3. Focus on Regional Collaboration Against ISIS in Somalia: Strengthen cross-border intelligence and counterterrorism efforts, particularly between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia, to limit ISIS’s growth in Puntland and mitigate risks of collaboration with other regional actors.

The month of October underscored the persistent threat posed by ISIS-linked groups across East and Central Africa. While security forces in Mozambique, the DRC, and Somalia achieved some tactical gains, the insurgents’ resilience and ability to adapt tactics indicate a protracted conflict. Sustained international cooperation, enhanced counterinsurgency capabilities, and a bolstered humanitarian response are essential to stabilizing the affected regions and mitigating civilian impacts.