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Economic
The recent fiscal year in Ethiopia has seen a deceleration in economic growth, with a GDP growth rate of 6.4%. While this figure may appear modest in comparison to the previous five-year average of 9%, it is essential to acknowledge the impact of global and conflict conditions on the economy.
Notably, there have been various factors that impacted the country’s economic growth negatively including internal and external factors such as political stability, conflicts, natural disasters, global economic conditions, and government policies. While Ethiopia’s economic growth rate may have decelerated, it is still positive and represents economic activity and expansion in the country.
Also, despite these challenges, the services sector demonstrated resilience with a robust growth of 7.6%, reflecting expansion in government spending and a post-COVID recovery in transport, hotels, and tourism. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector also contributed to the overall growth with an expansion of 6.1%.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister wants Paris to make investments in the country. After the November peace agreement that put an end to two years of bloody civil war in Tigray, Abiy Ahmed recently visited Paris to seek support to finance the reconstruction of infrastructure in northern Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister is now on a mission, embarking on a vast diplomatic and economic reconquest operation. Before arriving in Paris, the Ethiopian leader went to Rome, where he obtained €182 million in aid from the government of Giorgia Meloni.
Ahmed hopes to capitalize on the momentum created by the peace agreement signed between his government and the insurgents of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on November 2, 2022, in Pretoria, South Africa in an effort to grow the country’s economy besides strengthen bilateral ties with other countries.
In a delicate economic environment, Africa’s second most populous country needs the support of European partners to implement its recovery. Infrastructure, hospitals, roads, schools and universities in the north of the country have been ravaged by fighting. Olusegun Obasanjo, special envoy to the African Union for the Horn of Africa, estimates the total cost of rebuilding northern Ethiopia at €25 billion.
Ethiopian Prime Minister recent European tour aimed to raise funds and secure Western support for his country as it enters a post-civil war period. Ahmed also wanted to make progress on another burning issue, that of Ethiopian debt. Suffocating from a lack of foreign currency, the country, which has a population of 115 million, has asked for debt relief under the common framework set up by the G20. Support from Paris would be welcome as France co-chairs, with China, the committee of Ethiopia’s creditors.
Also, during the visit to Italy, PM Abiy and his delegation met with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Sergio Mattarella, and discussed continued relations between Ethiopia and Italy among other current global and regional issues.
Security
Ethiopian authorities have increased security measures in Addis Ababa ahead of the 42nd Ordinary Session of the Executive Council (Feb. 15-16) and 36th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly (Feb. 18-19). The conferences will take place at the AU Conference Center and Office Complex (AUCC) on Roosevelt Street. Numerous dignitaries, including heads of state, ministers, and other senior officials, from nations across Africa will attend. Hundreds of other delegates, as well as business leaders and journalists, will also likely travel to the city for the Summit. Also, High-level U.S. Government Delegation Travel to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Authorities in Ethiopia will likely maintain an elevated security posture through at least late February despite the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewhado Church (EOTC) postponement of nationwide demonstrations until further notice. The protest was originally slated for Feb. 12. The decision came after the talks between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and EOTC authorities Feb. 10 over the government’s alleged interference in the church’s affairs and tension over a split in the EOTC. Nevertheless, EOTC could organize a new protest campaign with little-to-no notice should authorities renege on their commitment.
Spontaneous gatherings cannot be ruled, notably in major cities, including Addis Ababa. Protesters may gather at religious sites, city centers, and public squares. Authorities will likely deploy to the site of any unrest. Clashes with security forces are likely should any protest materialize and if demonstrators ignore police orders to disperse. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near demonstrations. Authorities may limit or block access to mobile and internet communications during periods of severe unrest. Clashes between members of the breakaway EOTC faction and mainstream EOTC could occur.
Canada also reviewed travel advisory to Ethiopia warning their citizens to avoid non-essential travel to country due to civil unrest, violence, armed conflict and crime adding that the security situation can deteriorate without warning.
Socio/Political
In a rare remark about the two years’ war in the Northern Tigray region of Ethiopia and the peace dead that ended it, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, said that the peace deal signed between Ethiopian government and Tigrayan authorities in Pretoria, South Africa in November last year to end the devastating war was made by the US to save the Tigrayan forces from losing in the battlefield.
In an exclusive interview with state owned Eri-TV, which was streamed on 12 February for more than 90 minutes, the president accused the US for supporting the Tigrayan fighters from the start of the war. Eritrea also supported Ethiopian Forces in fighting the Tigray Forces citing their sovereignty aggression by Tigray.
Even in the wake of implement peace agreement, on its part, AU should not limit its attention to Tigray, as it is not the country’s only serious flashpoint. Among the fault lines that could cause upheaval elsewhere, the most prominent is an insurgency in the country’s biggest region, Oromia, which authorities seem intent on crushing by force.
A group of rebel bishops declared their own assembly in the Oromia region. Ethiopia’s Orthodox Tewahedo Church is one of the largest and oldest in Africa. But there has been a split within its ranks after three bishops formed their own patriarchate they named “Oromia and Nations and Nationalities Synod. The move led to weeks of unrest, divisions and violence in some regions.
Reacting to the demonstration call of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, the Government of Ethiopia has issued three statements within 24 hours stating that there are groups trying to overthrow the government by force using the internal affairs of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. On the contrary the Ethiopian Orthodox Church claims that the Government is siding with a group which launched a coup on the church.
There is an uneasy calm witnessed in the past few days after the church postponed rallies it had called – as the country prepares to host the annual African Union summit in Addis Ababa. However, social media and messaging platforms including Facebook, Telegram and YouTube remain significantly restricted.
