Executive Summary
Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) persistent attacks in Somalia underline the threat the Al-Qaeda aligned militant group continues to pose in the county and beyond. The Islamist militant group’s operations continue to target military, government officials and civilians.
Militant Islamist group violence continues to be primarily concentrated in theaters in central and southern Somalia. In the past one week of August, nearly a dozen terrorist operations were recorded mostly for Somalia, only one terror operation was recorded for Mandera county, NEP Kenya.
Lull continue to be witnessed on Kenyan frontier counties mostly targeted by the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab. Kenya frontiers counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) which are key targets of Al-Shabaab attacks to remain on high alert citing no major incident connected to the Islamist militants being reported in the period under review. The militants might be planning surprise attacks targeting these prefectures.
Despite this lull, counterterrorism operators urged to remain vigilant, collaborate with locals from the aforementioned regions and localities for any actionable intelligence (HUMINT) they may get in an effort to preempt persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab.
In the period under review, at least 17 attacks were recorded, all from across the regions of Somalia. In a number of these attacks, Al-Shabaab has notably targeted AMISOM troops in Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and also in Bay and Bakool regions. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs.
Al-Shabaab still retains control over large areas of rural Somalia and continues to mount attacks in urban centers. Most of these have occurred in Mogadishu and the Lower Shabelle region close to the capital.
AS Claimed Activities: 1st August – 8th August
- On August 2nd, Al-Shabaab claimed killing at least three people, wounding two others two separate gun attacks carried out by its operatives in Mandera county, NEP Kenya.
- On August 4th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops at Bardhere airport in Gedo region of Somalia. The militant used grenades and strengthened the attack with indiscriminate gun fire.
- On August 5th, Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly attacked the SNA military base in Deynunay area in Bay region. No details on casualties were reported.
- On August 5th, Roadside bomb target Somali government forces in Yaqshid district of Mogadishu. At least four soldiers wounded in the attack.
- On August 5th, Al-Shabaab reportedly executed an elderly man identified as Hassan Tohow Fidow, 87 at Al Ansar Square in Elbur town, Galgaduud region of Somalia on allegations that he insulted Prophet Muhammad.
- On August 5th, Al-Shabaab roadside IEDs targeted AMISOM, Ethiopian troops in the general area of Wajid district of Bakool region of Somalia. No details on casualties were published.
- On August 7th, Chief of Somalia’s infantry forces Gen. Bihi survived a roadside bomb after his convoy was targeted in area between Bacaadweyne and Wisil towns in Mudug region. Several military officers including Col. Dayib Osman killed, others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack through group’s pro-media channels.
- On August 7th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) Yoontoy, north of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
- On August 7th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on military base operated by ‘South West’ administration on the outskirts of Dinsor district. No details about casualties were reported.
- On August 7th, Al-Shabaab ambushed police officers outside Bar Sanguni Police Station, Lower Juba. Several police offices killed and other injured. Militants claimed to have confiscated AK47 rifles.
- On August 8th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM operated base in Tabto, Lower Juba successfully repulsed. No casualties were reported.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
Al-Shabaab terrorist threat remain skewed towards military operating bases (FOBs) and their convoys. Targeted attacks and assassinations remain unchanged towards government officials and towards civilians perceived as spies by the militant group. One elderly man was executed for allegedly insulting Prophet Mohammad.
Al-Shabaab style of attack hasn’t changed. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks citing the group exploiting poor Somali roads and thickets/vegetations. Theaters such as Mudug, Bakool, Gedo, Mogadishu districts, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba have recorded one or two terrorist operations in the past eight days.
The militants’ weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Roadside bombs and ambushes are proving more effective for the terrorist group.
While most of the recent attacks can be described as low intensity, they cannot be ignored as they are largely persistent, disruptive, and daring. For example, the ones that have been targeting government officials, military bases, convoys and at times on military/police chiefs.
Social media and other online forums are increasingly being exploited by terrorist outfits in an effort to spread violent extremist narratives and activity, besides luring potential recruits and countering their channels would be of paramount importance.
The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab continue to maintain a vibrant propaganda media, the Al-Kataib from which the group continue to hurriedly claim responsibility, mostly exaggerating on the operations outcome. Through Al-Kataib media, Al-Shabaab continue to promote it operations, displaying photos mostly of their perceived ‘successful’ operations.
The Islamist Al-Shabaab fighters have sustained their operations. The persistent attacks have further strained and frustrated the military response being carried out by the Somali National Army (SNA), which is backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops) besides other foreign troops. More interventions need to be put in place to support the weak Federal Government forces especially air campaigns as witnessed in the recent past in an effort to disrupt the militant’s movements and networks, besides destroying their hideouts/bases.
US also made the announcement of designation of five terrorist leaders in Africa. For East Africa, the US State Department announced the designation of Ali Mohamed Rage, also known as Sheikh Ali Dheere. Rage is an Al-Shabaab’s spokesman and a senior leader of the Somali-based terrorist group affiliated to Al-Qaeda. Ali Mohamed Rage replaced Sheikh Mukhtar Robow as Al-Shabaab’s top spokesman in May 2009. He has been involved in planning attacks that has targeted areas in Kenya and Somalia.
Another designated Al-Shabaab leader included Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir, also known as Ikrima. Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir is a facilitator and operational planner for the terrorist group. The two Al-Shabaab leaders are instrumental towards planning of terrorist operations in the region and eliminating them would be a huge blow to the Islamist militant group.
Conclusion
Today’s terrorism threat landscape has greatly changed, it has morphed and is more complex, more dynamic, and more diversified than it was some years ago. As such, counterterrorism operators in East Africa region and especially those countering the Islamist insurgents in Somalia need to rethink their strategies citing Al-Shabaab military and intelligence strategies have sharpened over the years. Timely intelligence gathering and sharing is pivotal towards securing/thwarting terrorist related incidents in the region.
Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operators in East Africa region, especially in Kenya and Somalia encouraged to scale-up surveillance both ground and airborne on the proximal of all military operating bases and all security defense posts to timely pick on enemy signatures in an effort to decisively preempt and thwart possible surprise attacks in the future.
Latest counterterrorism operation in Kutulo area of Mandera County, NEP Kenya saw officers foil a planned terror attack in Kutulo area and killed a suspected Al-Shabaab militant before recovering 432 rounds of ammunition from him. The team recovered two AK47 rifles, two Mark 4 rifles and three AK47 magazines and also recovered a motorcycle, personal effects and foodstuff from the terror operative. More of such, intelligence-led operation encouraged along the border prefectures with Somalia.
Scouting and surveillance need to be encouraged around FOBs. Change of routine by military troops also encouraged, especially military convoys to avoid being frequent targets.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks have sharpened and threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and on soft targets remain unchanged.
