Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of June 12th – June 19th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) movement, an affiliate of the Al-Qaeda terrorist group continues to morph and strengthen in East Africa. Popularly known as Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s associate militant force with its home-base in Somalia has constantly and persistently mounted low-scale to large-scale attacks back at home and sporadically targeting Kenya’s frontier regions with Somalia.

The week under review has seen the Islamist Al-Shabaab stage a number of attacks from across a number of regions. In the capital Mogadishu, the militant conducted a suicide bombing attack that targeted a military training base. A number of casualties on new recruits were reported. The militant group also conducted low-scale operations in areas of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba against both local and foreign troops.

For Kenya, another target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab recorded a number of operations in frontiers counties of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa in the past recent weeks. A few attacks also targeted security forces in the coastal county of Lamu. However, in the past seven days (one week) no major militant activity has been recorded in the aforementioned terror prone counties due to greater multi-agency action and community engagement.

 Focusing on security issues to counter violent extremism is a step in the right direction. The government and relevant count terrorism agencies should invest more in non-security approaches to fighting and stemming down violent extremism.

Notably In Al-Shabaab group launched new educational curriculum which the group said is for middle schools (Intermediate). Four years ago, the Islamist militant group also published curriculum for primary schools. The launch of education curriculum is another well calculate move by the militant group aimed at appealing to Somali citizens from across the war-torn nation that they are taking charge in education. In return, Al-Shabaab aims at promoting its agendas and ideologies by introducing the education curriculum that is evidently in Arabic.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks June 12^th – June 19^th

• On June 12^th, reports from the Lower Shabelle region say that Al-Shabaab attempted probe on an AMISOM base in Maryan Gubay village was successfully thwarted.
• On June 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on AMISOM troops in Abdalla Birole area on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba region of Somalia.
• On June 14^th, A man wearing Somali military uniform was shot dead. The Somali government soldier identified as Adnan in Mogadishu’s Seybiyane neighborhood in Hodan district. Adnan was said to be bodyguard for senior military commander. The killers believed to be Al-Shabaab assassins escape from the shooting scene.
• On June 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked SNA and AMISOM-Ugandan troops on the road between Buufow and Number 60, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On June 15^th, at least 15 killed in Somalia suicide bombing claimed by Al-Shabaab militants. Initial reports indicate that the suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a checkpoint outside the General Degaban military training camp in Mogadishu. At least 10 new SNA recruits were killed and 20 others wounded as military source.
• On June 18^th, Massive explosion believed to be a Suicide vehicle borne explosive device (SVBIED) targeted Somali military Headquarters at Biyo Adde in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 10 SNA soldiers and injuring a military commander in the bombing.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab, which wants to unseat the government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic sharia law, frequently carries out small to large-scale attacks especially on both local and foreign troops. Civilians are also often caught in the heinous raids.

In the few attacks that have happened in the past one week, only the suicide car bombing that recorded high number of casualties compared to the other four other low-scale raids. Use of various forms of explosives devices including landmines, roadside bombs and car bombs remains the group’s preferred attack types. Ambushes are also common on military convoys in Somalia citing challenges of bad roads and thickets.

On issuing a new Arabic education curriculum in Somalia, Strategic Intelligence (S.I) views the move as easier for Al-Shabaab to produce their syllabus as they make base for their ideological beliefs rather than social progress. The militant group tries to legitimize itself as an alternative government by offering services to the venerable Somali citizens, besides, such platforms offer a chance for recruitment.

Today’s terrorism threat landscape is more complex, more dynamic, and more diversified than it was some years ago. Al-Shabaab as well as other jihadist factions globally continue to exploit social media to promote their operations. The Somali-based Al-Shabaab has a vibrant propaganda media that is tasked in claiming of attacks almost on real-time or shortly after the attacks.

It’s no doubt social media and other online forums are increasingly being exploited by terrorist outfits in an effort to spread violent extremist narratives and activity, besides luring potential recruits. Counterterrorism actors urged to collaborate with locals and other players in security industry in an effort to identify and respond to the menace of radicalization that in turn results to the spread of disinformation, conspiracy theories and false narratives fronted on social media and other online platforms. By promoting photos on the recently concluded education curriculum role out in Somalia, Al-Shabaab not only portraying to take up substantial roles of the weak Federal Government but also brainwashes many in such acts.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab remains a serious threat in Somalia and broader in East Africa region. The group’s threat continues to be skewed towards security defense outposts (FOBs), military convoys and also on government officials. Threat remains unchanged on security forces for both Somalia and Kenya.

S.I warns that Al-Shabaab may seek to exploit the easing of COVID19-related restrictions across East Africa region and especially in Somalia to conduct attacks against a broader range of targets after previous public capacity limits reduced opportunities for lethal attacks.

Counterterrorism operators in Somalia and also in Kenya to remain on high alert, increase on surveillance both ground and airborne on the proximal of all military operating bases and all security defense posts to timely pick on enemy signatures besides preempting and thwarting possible surprise attacks.

In Kenya, surveillance on water points and places with critical infrastructures such as communication masts encouraged besides scouting some distance away from defense and security posts. Collaboration with locals much encouraged to gather as much human intelligence (HUMINT) on group’s operations especially in upper and lower prefectures of Kenya sharing border with Somalia.