The political and security scales in Jubbaland Federal State of Somalia are somewhat tilting, specifically in the upper region known as Gedo. It is predominantly Marehan and main operating base for the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen. Currently, Gedo is significantly exposed to security and humanitarian conflict; subsequently posing a significant-direct threat to Ethiopia and Kenya’s national security. Politically, the region has been under Abdirashid Janaan and his militia under JSF.
Currently, the political leadership in Gedo is in disarray. The Security Minister, a long-term ally of regional security heads in the war on terrorism is now a pawn in the clannish-political conflict in the area. This could further plunge the Federal State in a complex security and political problem. The regional support for Federal States of Somalia, particularly Jubbaland, was requested by previous Somali administrations. The Farmaajo regime has opted to reverse this with clan politics and conflicts, and the ramifications are consistently catastrophic. Abdirashid Janaan, the former Security Minister under President Islam Madobe has failed to pacify and secure Gedo from both clan militia and the terror group Al-Shabaab Mujahideen. The poor security architecture has also exposed the region, particularly the border towns of Doolow and Beled Hawo to become flashpoints.
These flashpoints continue to factor regional border security conflicts which subsequently cause diplomatic and political tensions. A Clear example is the current tiff between Somalia and Kenya. Janaan’s leadership in Gedo and his weak Jubbaland Security Forces (JSF) has allowed direct meddling by Mogadishu via the Turk trained Somali Army (SNA). The meddling is in form of excessive deployment of these SNA troops to exert desired political pressure on the local actors. The objectives are normally to change perception and create a new security and administration architecture that is complacent and easy to manipulate.
Abdirashid Janaan is currently a person of interest to regional security chiefs. He has worked with many since attempts to stabilize Somalia began. For a week now, there has been rumors in the intelligence circles in the region about his intended surrender to Somali militia in Beled Hawo. Photo reports of him at Beled Hawo looking haggard and poorly secured have surfaced further giving credence to these reports. If he defects, Janaan is expected to be debriefed by FGS about his cooperation with regional security organs. Perhaps this is part of the deal, in exchange of intelligence on Kenya and Kismayu which is often leaked to Al-Shabaab, Janaan will walk free for now.
Recently, his troops were outflanked and a significant number captured at the Beled Hawo flashpoint. Left with a handful and unable to recruit more Janaan is weak despite his steadfastness. Coerced by Mogadishu, promised both money and power, Janaan will play right into the well-orchestrated war game. On 31 August 2019, Abdirashid Janaan was arrested by Mogadishu over his alleged responsibility for crimes under international law and other serious human rights violations. He was arraigned at the Banadir Regional Court in Mogadishu on 6 October 2019 and thereafter detained. On 28 January 2020, the deputy police commissioner of the Federal Government of Somalia, Zakia Hussein, announced that the minister had escaped. Three days later, the chief of staff in the Office of the President of Jubaland, Abshir Mohamed, announced on Twitter that Abdirashid was safely in Kismayo.
Fired by Kismayo, without a formidable militia, funding shortfalls, and outflanked, Janaan is taking a big leap of faith. Perhaps he will fall right inside a political abyss or right back to jail, and that will not tilt the regional Geopolitical scales. A Pawn out or maybe a man out of luck.
