Executive Summary
Al-Shabaab, an associated force of Al-Qaeda terrorist network has continued to launch attacks in East Africa countries of Somali and Kenya. The terrorist group continue to routinely wage attacks on Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys as well as their military operating bases.
This years, Al-Shabaab poses to bring significant challenges to Somalia. Threat levels in Somalia expected to multiply significantly citing the country’s elections delays. An opportunity Al-Shabaab is expected to exploit. The Gedo factor, also expected to play out a very critical role on the war against Al-Shabaab citing Kenya and Ethiopia are key contributors of troops within AMISOM supporting the Federal Government Forces. There seem to be rivalry brewing and engineered within Somali security forces fronting Kenya and an enemy and now former Jubaland security minister Abdirashid Janaan seems to have shifted loyalty to Mogadishu. This factor if not properly addressed will break operational cohesion and opening space for Al-Shabaab to thrive.
Al-Shabaab sporadic attacks in the week under review have been reported in Kenya. At least two attacks reported; one in Mandera prefecture targeting a public service vehicle and a second one that targeted border construction workers in Lamu county. Lamu in the first quarter of 2021 has experienced calmness with no major terror related incidents. This lull has been as a result of multi-agencies counterterrorism operations.
Al-Shabaab has overly employed insurgent-style tactics, including ambushes, hit-and-run attacks, and improvised explosive device (IED) operations mostly linked with local cells in the aforementioned Kenyan counties.
AS Recently Claimed Attacks March 19th – March 26th
- On March 21st, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on a Burundian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in Mahaday town in central Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab had attacked the same Burundian military base in late February.
- On March 23rd, a water bowser ferrying water to the construction site of the Kenya-Somalia security border wall, ran over an improvised explosive device (IED) believed to have been planted in its way by Al-Shabaab militants before exploding at around 7:30 a.m. in Lamu county killing one person. The vehicle had just left the border town of Kiunga in Lamu East and was heading to Usalama camp on the common border with Somalia when it ran over the explosive device.
- On March 23rd, Kenyan security forces repulsed Al-Shabaab attempt to attack a camp in Mandera. The militants fired two Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPG) and fired several times into the Border Patrol Unit (BPU) camp in Sheikh Barrow area before prompting a decisive response from local teams.
- On March 24th, Three killed, several injured after bus runs over an improvised explosive device (IED) in Koromey, Mandera County-Northern Kenya.
- On March 25th, At least four civilians were killed and nine others injured in Somalia following mortar shelling that likely were targeting peacekeeping force, AMISOM’s base at the airport in the capital Mogadishu.
- On March 25th, a Senior Somali military officer, Colonel Ali Barise killed after roadside bomb blast targeted his vehicle in Mogadishu’s Deynile district. His bodyguards killed and others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
Assessment/Observation & Insights
Notable, increased incidents of Al-Shabaab attacks targeting Halane military camp in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The mortar shelling occurred ahead of a meeting between leaders of Puntland and Jubaland at the Halane compound that hosts a number of foreign missions including UN offices.
Security experts raise concerns over Somalia government recruiting former Al-Shabaab combatants into joining the National Army. The experts cite infiltration of Al-Shabaab into organs of Somalia security agencies noting that there is no guarantee that the Al-Shabaab defectors will be one hundred percent loyal to the government.
There is a growing concern about the extent to which the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has infiltrated Somalia security agencies including NISA and police, besides fears of escalating threats that these recruited defectors pose to the country’s security citing they could act as double agents.
Al-Shabaab continue to entice locals by providing some initiatives including supporting education. For example, Al-Shabaab released a second video documenting a shari’a legal studies competition for students in Somalia’s Bay and Bakool regions on March 22. The tribal leader chairing the competition praised Al-Shabaab for its investment in regional educational initiatives. Al-Shabaab released a video showcasing the first part of the competition on March 15. Al-Shabaab announced its commitment to provide education and school supplies to students in the regions. Al-Shabaab main objective is to gain trust from locals and subsequently gets some following (recruits). Counterterrorism actors need to come up with a counter-strategy to disrupt these latest developments.
Political impasse continues to threaten Somalia security, with President Farmajo seemingly not ready to cede power yet. His term expired on February 18. and a number of meetings with regional state leaders have so far not yielded. Its also notable Al-Shabaab attacks have significantly decreased in the past three weeks. However, attacks have been reported a number of times the regional state leaders have ben convening further pitting mistrust between Farmajo-led Federal government and regional state administrations.
In Kenya, Because of the proximity of the region to Somalia border, the militants have been crossing or activating local cells, setting bombs on the roads to target security agents. Northern Kenya, especially Mandera, has borne the brunt of the vice of the Islamist Al-Shabaab due its strategic location with Somalia, a situation complicated by a porous border. However, these attacks are sporadic and on decline citing counterterrorism efforts in the frontier regions.
Conclusion
Kenyan counterterrorism assets urged maintain guard and upscale their operations, especially along the border with Somalia to thwart surprise raids besides preempting occasional threats posed by Al-Shabaab on Kenyan soil. Also, security actors to be keen possible recruitment grounds, especially in upper and lower prefectures of NEP Kenya as well as in the coastal counties (Lamu and Kwale) where youths continue to be sneaked into Somalia.
Surveillance, scouting encouraged on defense posts in both countries. In Kenya’s NEP (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa), citing previous attack patterns, possible targets skewed towards police and army camps located in these general areas/localities. Other possible targets included; learning institutions, border towns, markets and churches.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) highly recommend that possible targets beef up their security by increasing surveillance and day and night covert scouting to ensure they detect enemy movement in time and subsequently preempt possible repeat attacks. Army units should ensure enemy combatants do not cross the border. The army patrol units should be versatile enough to engage and destroy enemy capability and combatants.
The dangers associated with failure to resolve the stalemate over Gedo, or ignoring it and allowing it to aggravate, are considerable. Already the dispute over the Jubaland election has dragged on for nearly a year. Escalating tensions between Mogadishu administration and Jubaland as well as several other regions are jeopardising the country’s already delayed elections and distracting efforts to fight Al-Shabaab.
Change of routine on patrol teams as well as armies’ convoys also encouraged to avoid devastating IEDs/landmines and ambushes that remains common weapon of choice by the Islamist Shabaab militants.
