The Somali National Army troops stationed in Bulla Hawo have clashed with a Militia opposed to President Mohamed Farmaajo regime at the Bulla Hawo flashpoint on Monday 25th January 2021 less than a fortnight to the expiry of the current regime in Somalia. Bulla Hawo is across the border with Kenya’s Mandera town in NEP Kenya. There is no credible battle damage assessment (BDA) so far, but the militia took control of the town but ceded to the SNA Militia later the same morning. Approximately 6 persons were killed including a Somali Police chief in the area. The militia is allied to the Jubbaland Federal State under President Ahmed Madobe and is believed to be under Jubbaland Federal State Security Minister Abdirashid Janaan. Clearly, an Ogaden and Marehan clan war is taking shape and its ramifications will be significantly negative.
The Somali Army has not issued an official statement about the incident that has lasted throughout Monday morning and could turn the sociopolitical weather in the weak state. However, FGS elements have issued statements condemning the Monday events without providing details. Available photo-stories from OSINT sources provide a preview of a Clan Militia, well trained, heavily armed and funded by rival Sub-Clan stalwarts to pursue political power in Gedo. Intelligence sources report that the heavily armed militia took control of the town but lost it later. The Marehan clan militia in Gedo continue to pose a significant threat to border security as they regulalry clash with the Ogadens. Outgoing FGS leader Farmaajo has trained and armed a Sub-Clan through SNA elements and embedded them in army units at Doolow, Bulla Hawo and other small town in Gedo.
Jubbaland Vice President Mohamud Sayid Adan claims the Somali Army backed Marehan Militia probed the Jubbaland Security Forces positions outside Beled Hawo and believes they were under instructions from President Farmaajo in his bid to postpone national elections. Other Somali officials claim that this event was orchestrated by outgoing FGS leadership to divert public and international attention on the killings of Somali Army belligerents in Tigray region of Ethiopia.
The conflict will certainly irk the neighboring Republic of Kenya and acerbate the poor diplomatic relations with the weak Federal Government of Somalia. FGS continues to blame the Republic of Kenya on its strategic and structural failures. Elements of the FGS continue drawing the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) in the conflict. The Kenya Army is not involved in the conflict rather concerned at the threat it poses to both countries.
