Characterizing Al-Shabaab’s Regional Operations in Somalia, Central and Southern Regions Remains Militant’s Active Theaters

Weekly Counter Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 29th May – 5th June 2020.

The Al-Qaeda armed Islamist extremist group Al-Shabaab despite joint counter operations from CT assets in Somalia continue to demonstrate its capability of conducting surprise attacks against both Somali Army targets and peace-enforcement mission AMISOM notably from general theaters in central and southern Somalia.

The African Union peacekeeping force involved in ground counterterrorism operations is supposed to transfer responsibility to Somali forces in 2021, even though these forces remain incapable of holding terrain. Its worrisome that the Somali National Army (SNA) has not been able to hold swathes captured from Al-Shabaab in joint operations further limiting the effectiveness of these efforts.

The militant group still maintain presence in the territory surrounding the capital, Mogadishu, from which it coordinates attacks targeting the Somali Federal Government. Increased counterterrorism pressure may have reduced the overall volume of attacks in Mogadishu, but the capital is not yet secure and remains fluid.

Recent Claimed Attacks (29^th May – 5^thJune 2020)

1. Friday, 29^th May 2020.  Al-Shabaab claimed to have executed a 50-year old sorcerer identified as Abu Bakr Haji Omar in Qoryoley,Lower Shabelle State, southern Somalia.
2. Friday 29^th May 2020. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 3 government soldiers and seizing their small arms at a military checkpoint in the suburb of Janale city in Lower Shabelle state, southern Somalia.
3. Saturday, 30^th May 2020. At least 4 IED explosions target Ethiopian troops convoy travelling between Bardaale and Qansahdhere towns in Somalia’s Bay region. This large Ethiopian convoy was carrying about 1000 of Ethiopian troops who crossed from Ethiopia through Somalia border into Gedo Region in February (2020).
4. Sunday, 31^st May 2020. Ten killed, 13 injured in landmine blast in in Afgooye. 14-seater public vehicle traveling between Hawa-Abdi and Lafoole road near Afgooye town hit a landmine killing ten people, some 30 kilometers southwest of the capital Mogadishu.
5. Sunday, 31^st May 2020. Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried an assassination operation on a Somali government official in capital Mogadishu alongside two other officials.
6. Monday 1^st June 2020. Al-Shabaab claim assassination of a member of election committee of the Somali parliament alongside his driver. Al-Shabaab claim to have sized his pistol in an operation conducted in Yakshid district of the capital, Mogadishu.
7. Monday 1^st June 2020. Al-Shabaab amputates right hand of a civilian man identified as Osman Manurey for allegedly stealing 250USD from a shop in an area near Qoryoley town in Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia, according to local sources.
8. Tuesday 2^nd June 2020. Ethiopian troops at army base attacked by the Islamist militants. Al-Shabaab on Monday night unleashed mortar shells at ENDF military base in Bay region, southwest Somalia.
9. Tuesday 2^nd June 2020. Al-Shabaab claim attack targeting AMISOM operating base in Lower Juba. The militant claimed a power explosion targeting AMISOM troops in Hosingo area. Al-Shabaab using remote controlled improved explosive device (RCIED) attacked a team of patrol while on water collection at an old borehole right of Hosingo-Jiliti-Hamey MSR. The RCIED exploded and fragments hit one soldier on his right thigh and foot (stable condition airlifted to Dhobley). Other fragments hit one Puma APC right side window of the driver and windscreen others puncturing right side tyres and causing oil spillage on front axle. Two soldiers injured in the blast.
10. Tuesday 2^nd June 2020. At 2145 hrs Al-Shabaab militants fired several rounds of AK 47 rifle towards Kolbio FOB at a distance, 3 km NE of FOB.
11. Wednesday 3^rd June 2020. Buurdhubo District Commissioner (Mayor) identified as Abdullahi Sharif survives assassination attempt. At least two civilians killed and three others injured in grenade attack in Gedo region, southern Somalia.
12. Somali anti-mine unit defuse a landmine planted by Al-Shabaab in the vicinity Somali National University Campus in Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.
13. Thursday 4^th June 2020. Al-Shabaab fighters overrun Somali military bases in Bal’ad town of Middle Shabelle, about 30km north of the capital Mogadishu after heavy fighting. Initial reports indicated that Al-Shabaab fighters seized part of the city while govt troops retreated northern part of the town. Later, the armed militants withdrew and subsequently SNA troops came back, but outside the town.
14. On Thursday 4^th June 2020. At around 2138hrs, Al-Shabaab militants probed Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) Darwish Camp from the general direction of North East. JSF Camp is approximately 2 kilometers on a general direction of East from the probed FOB.
15. Massive blast targeting Ethiopian troops escorting local Somali officials reported near the district of Qansahdheere in Bay region of Somalia. Reinforced ambush (IED followed by armed assault). Heavy losses on Ethiopians reported. Approximately 21 ENDF killed by the time of release of this report.

Analysis and Observation

Key Al-Shabaab sanctuaries mapped by Strategic Intelligence (S.I) persists in central and southern Somalia, especially in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, Bay, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Juba, Hiran and Galgaduud regions.

A number of airstrikes from allied partners have been able to limit Al-Shabaab’s to mount major offensive campaigns, but not been sufficient to defeat the Islamist militant group.

Its noteworthy Al-Shabaab’s dens in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu allow the militants to conduct surprise attacks on hard targets such as Federal government troops, officials and installations. The group adapted to security conditions by striking softer targets like district offices. Another observation, joint security operations have reduced the number of complex attacks so far in 2020 though Al-Shabaab’s tempo of assassinations, small-arms ambushes, and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks remains unchanged.

Though Central Somalia regions have not been witnessing frequent attacks as it was last year, the region has offered support zone for the militants. Maintaining small units in this region, the group has been able to plan and conduct sporadic, low-scale attacks mostly on troop’s convoys. These attacks are notably conducted on military supply routes (MSR) with RCIEDs, IEDs, Landmines and guerilla ambushes citing the vegetation factor of the region.

A military base belonging to Somali National Army (SNA) was on Thursday reportedly overrun by Al-Shabaab. The raid took place at the perilous town of Bal’ad (Balcad), about 30 kilometers north of the capital, Mogadishu.

Southwestern Somalia (Gedo, Bay, and Bakool), maintains Al-Shabaab historical attack zones around the regional capitals Garbaharey, Baidoa, and Hudur. It increased militant activity have been recorded in these regions. Al-Shabaab has expanded its support zone along the road between Luq and Dolow in Gedo near the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders, potentially providing a base of operations for future attacks in Ethiopia’s Somali region. Ethiopian troops have suffered the brunt of recent militant attacks in Bay region.

The militant group also continue to conducted targeted assassinations. On Tuesday, the militants attacked the office of Burdhubo District Commissioner Abdullahi Sharif in Gedo. A fierce gunfight ensued between them and the officers’ guards, forcing him to take refuge at a nearby Ethiopian military base.

Gedo, apart from militant activity has been Gedo a of contestation between Federal Government and Jubaland administration, with new Mogadishu-aligned officials being appointed to the area in May. For the past two months, a contingent of Ethiopian non-AMISOM troops have been crisscrossing into parts of Somalia, a move which predictably raised eyebrows among critics, due to escalation of tension in Gedo region. The entry of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops could further trigger political emotions in Somalia since the mandate of the fresh troops is not well defined.

 In Southern Somali Coast (Lower Shabelle, Middle and Lower Juba), the Al-Qaeda aligned militant group has remained active. The group has conducted noted ambush raids on AMISOM-Forward Operating Bases (FOB) repeatedly. In barely two weeks, Al-Shabaab has probed troops in general area of Hosingo. Kolbio-FOB and JSF recruit camp have also been probed.

Al-Shabaab Hold Graduation in Middle Juba (Significance)

 The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia through its affiliated media published photos purportedly of its students holding a graduation ceremony in its headquarters town of Jilib in Middle Juba. Though the group did not indicate the month and date when it took place, the ceremony has significance into the group’s operations; especially recruitment.

Firstly, its noteworthy Somali populous are conversant with Somali language but the Islamist Al-Shabaab has been forcing locals under their areas of control to practice speaking and writing in Arabic. This is so for indoctrination and brainwashing purposes to further its ideologies.

Also, the publishing of these photos’ militants, showing youths of female gender, wearing traditional Somali attires and getting lectures by representatives of the group in an unidentified location within Jilib town are intended to lure others within their folds. The photos also show general underage and others nearing teenage undergoing the lectures, an indication that the group is preparing locals and limit induction of foreign fighters who have in many times been branded as spies.

The incident comes barely two weeks ago after members of the Islamist group were also sighted in several towns among them Jilib attending Eid al Fitr with locals which were a culmination of fasting during the Holy month of Ramadan. Jilib is found within Middle Juba and is used also for the recruitment and training of young people.

Conclusion

Its notable that Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab have continued to stage attacks almost in the same localities and vicinity in the mentioned regions of Somalia.

As showed in the brief, Al-Shabaab has maintained presence and its activities in the mapped areas and though its primary targets remain Federal Government and its allied partners, Somali populous have also paid the brunt of the group’s insurgency.

Counterterrorism operations have significantly mounted pressure on the militant group, but more strategies and tactic need to be put in place to wade-off the witnessed raids in these regions as discussed. Its imminent that the militant group has undoubtedly continued to demonstrate its capabilities of staging repeats attacks on same targets (FOBs, military convoys and patrols units) and new counter measures are needed to aptly combat the already gains being seen in these theaters.