Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 29th May – 5th June 2020

The week between May 29^th and June 4^th has recorded several attacks Restive North Kivu and Cabo Delgado Province in DRC and Mozambique as well as one attack in Afgoye. Lower Shabelle in Somalia. The attacks have left civilians and security officers dead, building razed to the ground, and thousands of people homeless and displaced from their villages and towns. The attacks though not as many as the previous two weeks have recorded very high numbers of casualties in a grim trend that is gradually magnifying the presence and capabilities of the groups in the countries they operate in. This is especially true in DRC and Mozambique where the local militaries have failed to respond with the necessary might and stealth which has propelled the groups to greater threats as opposed to a few months ago. In both countries, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, hold towns hostage, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

In Somalia Abnaa Ul Calipha conducted its first attack in southern Somalia and the first grenade attack since 2017 were two police officers were killed in Afgoye. The attack is an indicator that the group has active cells in various parts of the country unlike the standard assumption that they are only concentrated in the north. It can also be viewed as a way to assert themselves as well as intimidate their rivals, Al Shabaab who have been moving fighters to the north close to ISS’ headquarters. Both groups are constantly fighting each other for territory and dominance especially fuelled by their fundamental ideological differences.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (29^th May- 4^th June)

Mozambique

1. 28^th May- 30^th May– ISCAP invaded and took a temporary occupation of Macomia district for a three-day siege. During the three days, the group destroyed markets, burned buildings both public and private, as well as destroying the power substation that services at least 8 districts in Cabo Delgado Province.
2. 31^st May– 8 bodies were discovered in Nanga A neighborhood in Macomia following the end of the 3-day siege by ISCAP with bullet wounds and others beheaded.
3. Siege aftermath– following the end of the temporary occupancy at least 17 bodies were recovered and 5 from members of the Mozambican Police Rapid Intervention Unit with speculations that the number could go over 22 as returning residents scrap through the damage.

Democratic Republic of Congo

1. 31^st May– 5 civilians were killed while seven others went missing after ISCAP attacked Mighende village located on Beni-Kasindi Road in Beni territory. The five were stabbed to death by the insurgents.
2. 31^st May– 5 civilians were killed in Masongo and Kathwakasoya villages in the Beni-Mbau sector in Beni, North Kivu. Additionally, a catholic church was burned to the ground in the same sector by ISCAP terrorists.
3. 3^rd June– at least 11 Christians were killed with automatic guns in the Rwenzori sector by ISCAP jihadists.

Somalia

1. 3^rd June– two officers of Somalia’s Police Force were killed By ISS attack with grenades in Afgoye in Lower Shabelle.

Preferred Weapon

As the Islamic State continues to set its foothold in Africa, the group has borrowed attack methods both from their original groups as well as their parent group; ISIS-Central. the weapon choice in most terror organizations on most occasions is chosen based on the message that the particular group is communicating as well as its combat capabilities. In Mozambique, ISCAP has continually used beheadings and razing down buildings previously indiscriminately but in recent weeks belonging to the government and allied businesses. The brutality of beheadings attracts publicity and thus drawing attention to ISCAP both from ISIS-central and recruits which place the group on the map as a lethal province of the global terror organization.

Typically, beheading and pillage and burning of houses have been deemed as a very effective psychological warfare tool geared at instilling fear to residents and coercing cooperation as well as driving out residents. As a war tool, it is also used to show the legitimacy and support if the IS ideologies by ancient Sharia laws as such it is an efficient weapon in the Jihadi narrative. Beheading an enemy, an Islamic terrorist symbolically links his (increasingly her) Jihad today to the sword-driven rise of Medieval Islamic Empire and to the late Medieval and Early Renaissance blood-soaked contest between Christendom and Islam for control of Europe.

While beheadings have the greatest psychological impact as a weapon ISCAP has been using guns and automatic weapons which has gradually shown the increased capacity of the outfits and the capability of the foot soldiers. It is commonly used in Somalia where assassinations are a common weapon choice as well as DRC and Mozambique during the temporary occupation stints. However, while the groups appear to have high-tech military-grade weapons, in DRC the use of crude weapons like machetes and knives is still rampant especially during the overnight ambush on the civilian populace.

Focus on Mozambique

The threat of ISCAP in Mozambique can only be reiterated by the three-day siege by the group in Macomia that lead to at least 22 deaths and millions worth of property damage. The siege on Macomia, which is the district capital shows that the group’s capabilities have grown in the past few months as it is the fourth district capital to be captured in the last three months. ISCAP captured Quissanga was captured on 25^th March and was only recaptured by the government on 5^th May; Mocimboa da Praia was captured several times between 23^rd March and 14^th May; Namacande was captured on 7^th April. During such sieges, the militants pillaged and try to influence the residents in their pursuit of legitimacy.

ISCAP in Mozambique has been employing progressive tactics in E-jihad in an attempt to lure fighters, impress ISIS sympathizers across the region while at the same time instilling fear among the residents of Cabo Delgado. In a video circulated by ISCAP’s social media the leadership call to Hijra shows the groups unexpectedly high capabilities and capacity to capture and hold hostage towns and villages for long periods. The call for Hijra undoubtedly shows that ISCAP is seeking hegemony in Mozambique and eventually the greater region as the group has lured members from Tanzania. The propaganda video shows the leadership speaking in Swahili in an attempt to entice mujahideen from the Jihadist-Rich Tanzanian southern Riverine and coastal Prefectures. Tanzania has always had a huge pool of jihadists and with neighbors such as Kenya cracking down on the borders the travel to Somalia to join Al Shabaab is limited a saturation that has found a home in ISCAP. Therefore, the ISCAP is establishing itself and seeking dominance over other groups and especially Al Shabaab by seeking out jihadis that were seemingly rejected by AS both from Tanzania and Uganda.

A repercussion of ISCAP in Mozambique -Human rights factor

• Following the three-day siege in Macomia, at least six children were injured after Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) choppers fired indiscriminately at the public fleeing the jihadist who had taken control of the town and its environs. Additionally, of the 22 dead people during the same period were children who die of hunger after they hid in the bushes from the brutal attack by the ISCAP.
• The huge number of IDPs has caused a humanitarian crisis in Cabo Delgado especially worsened by low mobility due to roadblocks and overall inaccessibility n and out of the region. Hostile political conditions in the region also are at play with refugees requiring to pay a $1.45 fee for the recognition as legal refugees despite the destitute conditions of the majority of the population.
• Indirect loss of life caused by the attacks is becoming a rampant occurrence with death being caused by hunger in the camps and warzones as well as refugees dying on transit to havens either by the road or water.
• The destruction of property and looting is setting the residents back in an already economically disadvantaged region marred by high levels of unemployment and poverty and governmental neglect.
• Kidnappings and killings of dissenters by ISCAP is a huge human rights violation seeing as the group is conducting forced recruitment of both men and young girls.

COIN Challenges in fighting ISCAP

Mozambican security forces have been facing numerous challenges in their response to ISCAP in Cabo Delgado. ISCAP appears to be better equipped than the military with weaponry and tech that has been amerced in the past months from their loots in the military bases and police station. Intelligence indicates that the terrorists have drones for reconnaissance which have given them an edge over the military. The military and police are inadeptly equipped to deal with ISCAP partially owing to limited weapon capabilities coupled with young soldiers who are ill-equipped, poorly-led, battle-fatigued as well as lacking the motivation to fight the outfit. While the Mozambican government sought the intervention of South African private military companies like DAG it lacks a safe forward operating base (FOB) to launch attack choppers as well as offer the needed logistical resources to launch an effective aerial campaign against the militants. Furthermore, the geographical terrain of the province inhibits precision tracking of the insurgents and airstrikes that can account for the reports of the indiscriminate shooting of civilians in the Macomia siege.  

ISCAP is gradually asserting itself as a formidable opponent in the restive north that requires stringent and rapid response to ensure that it does not cross borders as evidence a strong Tanzanian leadership within the group. While Mozambique seeks assistance from the southern Africa bloc, the government should invest in increasing the military’s capability through training and drill exercises that will help provide adequate ground back up to the aerial bombardments.

Admitting to the severity of the situation and drawing in regional governments has widely been seen as the missing cog in the battle against the Mozambican insurgents. A united approach in extinguishing the violence is more urgent now than ever as the frequency and scale of attacks continue to increase and $60 billion in gas projects hang in the balance.