A Jihadi forum that brought together the Muslim society for a self-proclaimed Islamic Wilayat in the East African region has released mandates, strategies and resolutions agreed upon in the five-day meeting. The forum attracted intellectuals, tribal leaders, Islamic scholars as well as the leadership of the al Qaeda affiliated Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) in Somalia.
The HSM leadership has since released a detailed communique from the forum dubbed “Consultative Forum Regarding the Jihad in East Africa” in their official media a strongly worded statement that has triggered speculations about the future of HSM in Somalia and EA as well as the relationship that exists between the terror organizations in the region as well as the larger Great Lakes Region where ISIS is seeking to establish a foothold.
Notably:
- HSM is expected to intensify its resolve and conduct obligatory jihad with the sole aim of defending the Islamic Wilayat’s religion, land and citizenry in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. The jihad has not only been declared against the non-Muslims but also other groups in the larger region that have been making headway in the name of Allah. The groups undoubtedly include IS-Somalia as well as ISCP which has been recruiting across the region. Intelligence indicate that HSM is willing and ready to infiltrates groups herein mentioned with the aim of dismantling them from within as a way of cleansing the EA region of illegitimate believers with ulterior motives that deviate from the al Shabaab’s ideology.
- Al Shabaab categorically issued a warning to those seeking to divide Muslims and directly luring increased international presence in the region that has resulted in the killing of believers. The threat is directed at ISS and ISCAP who have attracted military response in the region and especially at such a time when ISS appears to be the command centre of ISIS in the Sub-Saharan region. Furthermore, while the rivalry between ISS and al Shabaab appeared to have dwindled the new threat reignited the feud and as such attacks between the two groups are imminent in the immediate future.
- While the communique appears to relay the future steps to the prosperity of the Islamic Wilayat it is evident that it is a call to arms for the HSM which seeks to expand into the region masqueraded behind a ‘noble’ cause to protect Islam, economy, health, education and land, offer security for the Muslim society, and wage jihad against enemies of Allah with direct references to Abiy’s administration in Ethiopia, Kenyan northern prefecture and as well as Somalia state and federal governments. Therefore, it is obvious that HSM is actively seeking to expand and that could take the form of an escalated attack plan on the herein mentioned enemies as well as cell placement in the region to further the agenda of the terror group that has been posing the greatest threat in EA.
- HSM appears to be divided in short term objectives and middle term that the group seeks to accomplish within the Wilayat. The communique maintained that fighting the federal government and State governments established by disbelievers was obligatory seeing as they are apostate administration that have created a rift between Muslims. Therefore, al Shabaab’s immediate threat is the FGS as well as the state governments that ought to be toppled as they go against the Shariah and as such should be gotten rid of to give room for a government based on the Islamic laws and beliefs.
It is paramount that the East African governments erect measures in place that will pre-empt and counter the proposed expansion and resolutions discussed by the forum. The East African government alongside their international allies should maintain the pressure on HSM to ensure that the group does not escalate attack or recruit jihadists in areas where there is no presence. Uganda, Tanzania, DRC and Mozambique ought to create a comprehensive counter-terrorism framework that will dissuade people from travelling to Cabo Delgado and Beni region to ISCAP and as such decapitating the manpower flow for the terror groups. AMISOM and allied partners should be on an immediate look out for a potential surge in Jihadi-vs.-Jihadi attacks between ISS and HSM in hotbeds like Middle and Northern Somalia.
