There are a number of credible indicators that the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM) is steadily re-surging in the East African region, citing its stepped-up attacks particularly in Somalia. The militant group with no doubt has reactivated it cells especially in the capital Mogadishu, south and central regions of Somalia recording increased jihadist’s activities.
Apart from demonstrating its capability to conduct attacks, adapt and weather convectional military operations, Al-Shabaab militant group has morphed in both its strategy and tactical capabilities to either match or outmatch military assets and sociopolitical pressure.
In the past 24 hours, the following terror events have been recorded from across Somalia regions;
- Al-Shabaab attacked Guba Aday center near Hamey (Kenya-Somalia border area) and injured 3 civilians. The militants stole 2 automobiles. Reports indicate that SNA fled as attack went on.
- At least 2 Ethiopian soldiers were killed and 4 others wounded after 2 IED explosions hit their convoy in Galbaharey in Gedo region of Somalia.
- Al-Shabaab in another raid targeted SNA in the outskirts of Janale district, Lower Shabelle of Somalia. Initial BDA indicate the convoy had Somali military chief, Gen. Odawa Yusuf Rage onboard.
- Al-Shabaab also has claimed an armed assault on Puntland officials. The militant group claimed to have killed Governor Abdsalaam Jujiir and wounded Farah Garangooli, a former police chief in Garowe, Nugaal region of Puntland.
Worrying Trend
The group’s attacks trend-line indicate that the Islamist militant group is carrying multiple attacks in a day. The group stages a minimum of 2 attacks across the country targeting SNA troops and at least 1 attack targeting AMISOM troops. In Somalia alone, more than ten terror events have recorded in the past one week. This trend is worrisome as could easily excite the group’s cells not only in Somalia but also those operating along northeastern and coastal prefectures of Kenya.
The East African region certainly is expected to face significant challenges posed by the jihadists. What is more worrying is that the resurgence involves activation of fanatical grassroots jihadists who are not only ideologically inspired but with medium militant capabilities such as those operating in the vast Boni forest, Lamu county, Kenya.
As the Somali-based militant group continue to posture and demonstrate its capability to mount attacks across the country and beyond, it’s noteworthy that the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab is deploying small units of between 5-15 fighters to carry on attacks. The military strategy is aimed at achieving their goal of mounting attacks with casualties and at the same time minimizing casualty risks from their side. Also, smaller units are able to get to their targets locations without much detection or suspicion from security assets.
The militant group continues to recruit fighters from the East African region and beyond replacing substantial number of its fighters killed in theater.
Annotations
- Preferred use of mortar shelling especially when targeting military bases (FOBs) and other fortified compounds.
- Though recent mortar attacks have been low-scale, they could morph into a threat when fired by experts.
- Targeted assassinations reported on Somali government officials. Attacks involves fitting of bombs on targeted individuals’ cars.
- It’s notable that Al-Shabaab uses RCIED and then reinforce it with an ambush gunfire attack to maximize casualties.
- Al-Shabaab is keen on staging IED attacks, ambushes on road majorly used by the troops, meaning the militants possibly could have combed and learnt on the troops’ routines.
- The ability of the militant group to conduct a number of attacks though low-scale attacks, the group activities remains robust in several regions. Many events claimed in (Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Gedo, Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle).
Analysis and Counterterrorism Interventions
In Somalia, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has continued persistently to conduct spectacular attacks even targeting heavily fortified military and Somali government facilities including the Villa Somalia (Presidential Palace) and AMISOM and UN Headquarters at Halane Complex. Al-Shabaab demonstrated its lethality and capability to target the most complex targets including American Military Special Forces Operations base in Awadhegle, a high-security and value facility that is not far from the capital Mogadishu.
Security and Intelligence assets in the East African region faces a huge and challenging tasks ahead citing the persistent, steady jihadist’s activities. The resurgence will subsequently and adversely affect individual country’s security and stability. It is primary security and intelligence services to capitalize heavily in countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them.
On the above sampled claims, Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate its capability to conduct multiple attacks targeting both AMISOM and SNA beside conducting targeted assassinations on key figures.
That, despite a being targeted in a number of precision airstrikes from the U.S. from the beginning of 2020, the militant group continues to defy this pressure, an indicator of adaptation to conventional warfare strategies and a strategy of resilience as per the group’s doctrine.
Increased Al-Shabaab’s attacks suggests resurgence in Somalia, and underlines the threat the militant group continues to pose in Somalia and that of her neighbors. Though AMISOM and allied forces in Somalia have waged military campaigns against the militant group in support of the weak Somali forces, the military offensives, however, have not succeeded in completely defeating and dismantling the terror group, neither have they significantly diminished Al-Shabaab’s ability to stage attacks.
To elaborate its successes, the group continue to keep track of its attacks by publishing and spreading of infographics photos and videos of notable raids with casualties in their pro-websites and media. This a modern psychological warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing military assets fighting them in region. Besides, the strategy is also aimed at boosting the morale for group’s foot soldiers and attracting potential jihadists into their fold. To counter this, counterterrorism assets need to come with new strategies through targeted distributed denial of services to jihadist websites and other online media channels propagating their agendas.
Very interesting !