Perspective
- 3 Somali Federal State Governments are on a collision course with Farmaajo and Khaire administration in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, a restive Horn region state. It is a typical collision course. A threat of economic and political instability is eminent. The notables so far include subversive activities and unspecified threat from Prime Minister Hassan Khaire. Maybe dumb, he has confounded stakeholders seeking restarting stalled political, security, and economic reforms in Somalia, despite international community concerns on stalled inclusive political settlements, lack of progress in the delivery of commitments to the security pact agreed in 2017 London conference.
- Puntland Government issued a statement warning Mogadishu against interfering with upcoming electoral processes in both Galmudug and Jubaland Federal States, an indicator of a deliberate return of bellicose diplomacy which previously seemed rhetorical. The hardliners in Puntalnd decry subversive political activities by the de facto Somali President cum Prime Minster, Hassan Khaire.
- Another example is the Federal State Government of Galmudug and key members of its intelligence service. They are uncomfortable with FGS, particularly politically and diplomatically subversive activities by Hassan Khaire under the guise of FGS. In June 2019, Galmudug State warned that the relation between the FGS and Federal Member States is deteriorating. Galmudug further warned that the relations between FGS and neighboring countries are continuously deteriorating.
- Jubaland, a Federal State in the South, has told off the FGS about the upcoming elections. President Madobe is poised to win another term despite extreme political meddling by Hassan Khaire who has sponsored a candidate to upstage Madobe, a moderate who has played a key role in stabilizing Gedo and Jubaland prefectures.
Analysis
Somali Prime Minster Hassan Khaire will be sieged as politicians and Federal States leadership coalesce around President Farmaajo for political direction. All Federal States core leaders and policy makers have secretly written to President Farmaajo warning of continued internal subversion. The leaders claim Khaire under the auspices of the President has weakened federal democratic institutions and undermined the principle of checks and balances.
The hardliners and moderates agree in principal on the issues, and warn that the executive under Khaire’s instructions, continues implacably on silencing political dissent through bribery using money acquired from illegal oil and gas exploration companies. Worse, if bribery hasn’t paid off, intimidation and media propaganda wars are employed to assassinate characters and coerce them to compromise.
Farmaajo has been warned that Khaire has managed to weaken parliamentary oversight has been undermined through deliberate targeted attacks against party leaders and influential opposition figures exposing the country to political, social instability, and external or state or non-state sponsored subversion.
In Somalia today, optimism about the future is great. There’s hope and people want to believe it. With each year’s forecast slowly ratcheted down by political greed and miscalculations, the grimmer truth becomes obvious. The country’s short term vision is slowly being replaced with new optimistic forecasts about the distant future.
The Implications and Outlook.What Next?
The novice politician in Somalia’s Prime Minster has damaged the cordial relations that existed between it and its neighbors for many decades. We blame this on Khaire’s actions based on the perspectives and federal state leadership contexts. Khaire has engaged in deceptive political promises and misinformation that undermine the confidence and respect regional and neighboring countries had towards the Farmaajo administration.
The Prime Minister’s behavior falls short of ethics. The incredibility of the Prime Minster is equivalent of political assholes during the times of the confederates or better still Greek Kahuna’s. Maybe there’s an urgent need for a consultative meeting to end the downward spiraling of the situation. The buck stops with the President. He will be blamed for the ramifications on both politics and security situations, worse the deteriorating relations with strategic partners and neighboring countries.
