Terror Advisory for Kenya: Country Risk Assessment

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Somali based terror group Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM) plans to conduct a series of terrorist attacks in Kenya during the month of Ramadhan (June 2016), targeting both soft targets and government security forces.

Past events and terror attacks conducted during the month of Ramadhan and similar periods show a prelude to similar and possibly large scale attacks in near future.

  1. Between 15 June and 17 June 2014, more than 60 people were killed in attacks in and near Mpeketoni, Lamu County, coastal Kenya, when 50 terrorists raided innocent civilians at night.The terrorists also burned hotels, restaurants, and government offices. Intelligence shows the terrorists targeted Christians, particularly of Kikuyu ethnicity.
  2. Early on Sunday morning, 14th June 2015, in the town of Baure of Lamu, Lamu County of Coastal Kenya, approximately 60 militants from the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia Shabaab Mujahideen attacked Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) Forward Operating Base (FOB). 20 terrorists were killed after the soldiers conducted counter attacks.

These past events are likely to be repeated but differently.

  1. Increased influx of militants into the Boni forest from Somalia in preparation for a multi-pronged assault against military and police units in Boni area and the farm lands in Lamu.
  2. Security officials in North Eastern Kenya (NEP) reported sighting of 45 armed militants making entry into the country through the porous Kenya-Somali border at the frontier village of Sugrow in Wajir County NEP-Kenya. SOCMINT & OSINT reports show that a group of 13 headed towards Gerille area of Wajir County. The other groups of armed militants was sighted heading to Konton and Gumarey areas of Wajir East, Wajir County.
  3. Intelligence also warns of possible attacks against VIP's in the capital Nairobi, besides attacks against civilian targets in Eastleigh and Majengo targeting Christian families.
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Most of these planned attacks are largely "revenge" attacks for killed leaders and members of the terror group including Thomas Evans and also women perceived as victims of police brutality and Christian aggression against Muslim women.

The month of ramadhan is popular with terrorists surges. It is expected that the terror group will attempt to increase their attacks against both civilian and government targets in Kenya.

 

 

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