Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 1st – March 31st, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary:

Based on terrorist information for March 2024, the recent surge in Al-Shabaab insurgent activity, particularly by the Mujahideen in Somalia, has shown a concerning trend of increased attacks across various regions. In the month under review, a total of 58 attacks have been recorded, targeting government troops, African Union soldiers, and civilians. These attacks have been concentrated in Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Mudug, and other regions known for insurgent activities. A handful of attacks were also recorded in Kenya (Mandera, Garissa, and Lamu).

Of particular concern are the repeat attacks in certain areas, such as Mogadishu’s districts and the Mudug region, indicating a pattern of strategic targeting by the Al-Qaeda affiliated insurgents. This trend is expected to continue in the coming weeks and months as insurgent seek to maintain pressure on government forces and expand their control in key regions.

During the month of Ramadan, there is a heightened risk of increased attacks, including suicide bombings and IED strikes. This period is often seen as an opportunity by the Al-Qaeda branch insurgents to carry out large-scale attacks, as they believe martyrdom during this holy month holds greater significance. Security forces should be on high alert and enhance their intelligence gathering and surveillance efforts during this period.

To counter the insurgents’ increasing activity, a multifaceted approach is recommended. Firstly, there needs to be an improvement in intelligence gathering and sharing among security agencies to preempt and disrupt insurgent plans. Enhanced border security and cooperation with neighboring countries to prevent the movement of insurgent militants and weapons should also be prioritized.

Secondly, community engagement and empowerment programs should be intensified to win the trust and cooperation of local populations. This includes providing economic opportunities, education, and countering extremist narratives through religious leaders and community influencers.

Thirdly, there should be a focus on enhancing the capacity and capability of security forces through training, equipment provision, and coordination among different branches of the military and police. This will enable a more effective response to insurgent threats and reduce vulnerabilities in high-risk areas.

Of concern, in certain areas of the Galmudug region, reports indicate that Al-Shabaab has been employing reconnaissance drone cameras prior to launching attacks on military bases. The  Islamist militant group claimed to have captured a drone that fell into an Al-Shabaab-controlled area near Buulaburde in Somalia’s central Hiran region.

The recent increase in Al-Shabaab’s activity, especially in Somalia, poses a significant threat to stability and security in the region. It is imperative for security forces to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to counter these threats, focusing on intelligence-led operations, community engagement, and capacity building to mitigate the risk of further attacks.

Terrorist Events: March 1^st – March 31^st

1. March 31, 2024: Insurgent Mujahideen carried out a major operation in the Isha district of Baidoa, Bay region, resulting in the killing of a renegade soldier belonging to the SNA, identified as Yusuf Atoore.
2. March 31, 2024: Militants launched a fierce attack on military forces stationed in the outskirts of Harardhere town in Mudug region, resulting in casualties among the troops.
3. March 31, 2024: Planned operations by the Mujahideen in the Weydow area of Mogadishu resulted in the killing of a soldier from the Ridada forces.
4. March 30, 2024: Insurgent Mujahideen forces targeted SNA troops stationed at the Wirkoy checkpoint near Kismayo, Lower Juba, resulting in the injury of one SNA soldier.
5. March 30, 2024: Insurgent Mujahideen forces launched an attack targeting the home of apostate Mahad Abdi Rahman, a commander of the Asluubta Ridada forces, in Baydhabo city, resulting in a significant explosion at the residence of the SNA commander.
6. March 29, 2024: Mujahideen forces carried out an attack targeting the home of Mukhtar Madey, a member of the Somali Federal Parliament, in Baydhabo city. One soldier guarding the parliamentarian was injured, and his house suffered significant damage.
7. March 29, 2024: Mujahideen forces launched a fierce attack on the African Union base in the district of Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle region.
8. March 29, 2024: Mujahideen carried out a bombing targeting Kenyan troops residing in Dhoobley city, Lower Juba, and close proximity to the Kenyan Border, causing six fatalities.
9. March 28, 2024: Insurgent Mujahideen forces carried out a bombing targeting Somali government Ridada troops in the Xoosh neighborhood of Dharkenley district, Mogadishu, resulting in the death of 4 soldiers and 3 soldiers being injured.
10. March 28, 2024: In Banadir, Mujahideen operations in the Obasiibo neighborhood of Wadajir district resulted in the killing of a Somali government Ridada soldier named Abdulkadir Mohamed.
11. March 28, 2024: Mujahideen fighters carried out a bombing targeting SNA troops near the area between Daaru-nicma and Al-Kawthar of Middle Shabelle, resulting in the death of 1 SNA soldier.
12. March 28, 2024: Mujahideen carried out attacks inside Garbahaarey district of Gedo, targeting Ethiopian troops and SNA troops. 2 Ethiopian soldiers were killed, 4 others were injured, and 1 SNA soldier was injured in these attacks.
13. March 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched another massive assault in Baarsanguuni,located about 35 Km away from Kismayo.Residents reported two large explosions,followed by intense gunfire.
14. March 26, 2024: Mujahideen forces ambushed SNA soldiers from Janaale district of Lower Shabelle, retreating towards Buufo area. One SNA soldier was killed in the attack, and the spoils include an AK47 rifle, ammunition, and one captured motorcycle.
15. March 26, 2024: Mujahideen forces launched a planned attack on apostate militias in the outskirts of Wajid district of Bakool region, resulting in two SNA soldiers being injured, including one commander.
16. March 25, 2024: Mujahideen forces launched a fierce attack on the Ethiopian-backed SNA base in Hudur district, Bakool region.
17. March 25, 2024: Insurgents claimed to have attacked KDF troops in Siibaagooni, located between the towns of Witu and Pandhaguwaa in Lamu region, killing 3 soldiers in the ambush raid.
18. March 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab insurgents claimed a successful raid on an ATMIS-Ethiopian operated base in Booco-banaaney, Rabdhuure district, Bakool province.
19. March 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces launched a massive attack targeting the recently established SNA base in the Busleey area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, claiming to have killed 57 soldiers, captured weapons, battle vehicles, and PoWs.
20. March 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces launched an offensive against apostate forces at the Baar Sanguuni camp on the outskirts of Kismayo.
21. March 21, 2024: In Mandera County, part of the North Eastern Province of Kenya, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces engaged in intense combat with Kenyan police at a police station located in the Alunga area near the town of Lafey, resulting in one police officer from the Kenyan security forces being injured in the attack.
22. March 21, 2024: The Al-Qaeda affiliated insurgents, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on Somali government forces in the outskirts of Basra, a village near the town of Balcad in the Shabelle Hoose region, resulting in nearly 20 soldiers killed and the seizure of various weapons, including AK47 rifles and BKM machine guns.
23. March 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces operating in the Lower Shabelle region launched a significant attack on members affiliated with the SNA in the Afgooye district, seizing a PKM machine gun among other weapons.
24. March 19, 2024: Al-Shabaab insurgents claimed to have clashed with regional government of Hirshabelle forces in a general area of Middle Shabelle.
25. March 18, 2024: The Mujahideen forces claimed to have engaged in a fierce battle in the region of Ishaakaani in Lamu province, where Kenyan government troops are stationed. The confirmed reports indicate that two Kenyan soldiers were killed in the intense fighting, along with three others injured.
26. March 18, 2024: The insurgents associated with Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an attack that took place in the Shangaani area near the border between Somalia and Kenya, specifically in the Kaambooni region, where six SNA soldiers were reported killed, while others sustained injuries in the roadside bombing.
27. March 17, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants claimed a bombing operation carried out by Mujahideen forces within the Qoryooley district of the Lower Shabelle region resulted in the deaths of at least three SNA soldiers and injuries to five others.
28. March 17, 2024: Al-Shabaab militant group claimed credit for an ambush raid on a military post of the SNA troops in the Masagaway area of Galgaduud province.
29. March 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces recaptured the Xinlabi area under the Hobyo district of the Islamic province of Mudug, where the apostate militias fled after a battle.
30. March 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces operating in Lower Juba carried out a planned operation near the city of Dhobley and arrested a soldier from the regional administration of Jubbaland (JSF).
31. March 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces launched a heavy ambush against NISA officers who came out from the Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle, resulting in soldiers being killed and others injured.
32. March 15, 2024: An explosive operation carried out by the Mujahideen Bombing Brigade in Qansaxdhere District of Bay Province targeted Ethiopian soldiers.
33. March 15, 2024: The Mujahideen forces operating in the Garissa region of the NFD region planned and carried out a special operation in an area called Daru-Salaam and killed a Kenyan civilian.
34. March 14, 2024: Complex massive attack within Hotel SYL, adjacent to the Somali Presidential palace in Mogadishu claimed by the Al-Shabaab group. Massive casualties reported from the martyrdom (suicide bombing) operation.
35. March 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces attacked a position of Rida government troops in the Al-Najim neighborhood of the Dharkenley district in Mogadishu. They claimed the death of one government soldier and injuries to two others.
36. March 14, 2024: Xinlabi town in the southern Mudug region was reportedly captured by Al-Shabaab after a brief clash. Witnesses observed heavily armed militants in the area. This marks the fourth town to fall to Al-Shabaab’s recent rapid advancement.
37. March 14, 2024: In Baidoa city, a recent roadside explosion carried out by Al-Shabaab Mujahideen burned a car belonging to the South West Police. Unspecified casualties were reported.
38. March 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED strike on a Ugandan military vehicle in Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
39. March 13, 2024: A suspected Al-Shabaab explosion was reported near Hotel Ramadan in Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district. Details on casualties were not available.
40. March 13, 2024: An explosion carried out by the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen fighters in the area of Number 60 in Lower Shabelle burned a truck belonging to the African Troops, which was carrying containers. There were casualties among the soldiers traveling with the vehicle.
41. March 13, 2024: A roadside explosion carried out by Al-Shabaab in the area of Hawadley in the Middle Shabelle targeted SNA troops on patrol routine, injuring three soldiers.
42. March 12, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants recaptured Laasgacamey and Sirgo in the Mudug region, prompting the retreat of government troops. The reason for the sudden withdrawal of Somali federal forces remains unclear.
43. March 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush assault against SNA troops on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba, injuring more than 10 officers.
44. March 10, 2024: In Mogadishu, there have been reports of multiple mortar shells hitting the Yaqshid district, with some shells landing near the presidential palace. Civilian casualties have been reported as a result of the attack.
45. March 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants have reportedly seized control of Bacaadweyn town in the Mudug region after government forces withdrew. Residents have reported the presence of Al-Shabaab fighters in the town.
46. March 10, 2024: Mortar shells landed on spy agency and police headquarters in Somalia’s capital. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
47. March 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants captured Camaara town, a strategically significant area in the Mudug region of Galmudug regional state, after government forces withdrew. Witnesses observed heavily armed Al-Shabaab fighters patrolling key areas of the town.
48. March 8, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle in the camp of the Ethiopian army in the Halgan area of Hiran province. No details on casualties were provided.
49. March 7, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided the camp belonging to African Union soldiers, ATMIS, in Elaboor, Barawe district of Lower Shabelle.
50. March 6, 2024: Heavy fighting erupted in villages near Kismayo, including Muse Haji, Malayley, Tardo & Baxarsab villages, over the past three days. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the deaths of several Jubbaland soldiers.
51. March 6, 2024: An IED explosion occurred in Mogadishu’s Heliwaa district, targeting a military vehicle passing through the area. An eyewitness reported that three civilians and one government soldier were injured in the attack.
52. March 5, 2024: A prominent individual was reportedly assassinated by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen in the Karaan district of Mogadishu. Residents report that the assailants managed to escape.
53. March 4, 2024: In Bay, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting the camp of ATMIS-Ethiopian troops in Bardale district.
54. March 4, 2024: In the Bay region, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an attack on government troops in the camp of Maaya Fula in Baidoa.
55. March 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought in the camp of Ethiopian troops operating under the mandate of ATMIS in Hudur in Bakool province.
56. March 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting an administration center in the Garasbaaley area of Banadir, where soldiers and officers of the Somali firing squad were present.
57. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle in the camp of African Troops (ATMIS) in the Danow area under Qoryooley district of Lower Shabelle.
58. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen claimed to have attacked the camp of the SNA in the town of Baidoa, Bay region, injuring a two-star officer named Zakariye.
59. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for an attack on the camp of African troops, ATMIS, in Burcolow area under Barawe district, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.

NOTABLES (Successful CT Ops and Challenges)

Successful counterterrorism operations in Somalia have recently showcased the effectiveness of security forces in combating Al-Shabaab threats. The Somali Police successfully seized 140 mortars from terrorists in Mogadishu, disrupting potential attacks. Additionally, a joint operation by the Somali National Army and US allies in Lower Shabelle resulted in the elimination of three Al-Shabaab, highlighting the value of collaboration in enhancing security.

Ongoing operations across Lower Juba have neutralized over 50 terrorists and led to 20 detentions, indicating a significant blow to Al-Shabaab networks in the region. Furthermore, a joint operation with Jubaland Regional Forces saw the elimination of multiple terrorists and the capture of seven militants, demonstrating the success of coordinated military actions in disrupting Al-Shabaab activities.

In Galgaduud region, the National Armed Forces, with international support, conducted a pre-planned operation that wiped out dozens of terrorists, including top leaders, showcasing the effectiveness of intelligence-led operations. The swearing-in of 300 newly trained officers into the Somali Police Force and the graduation of a Somali National Army Gorgor Brigade signify significant progress in strengthening the nation’s security forces. Additionally, the participation of the National Army DANAB in the “Justified Accord” exercise in Kenya demonstrates Somalia’s commitment to enhancing its military capabilities through international cooperation, improving readiness for future operations.

However, these successes are juxtaposed with significant challenges faced by the Somali government in its battle against Al-Shabaab. The loss of numerous towns, including Laasgacamey, Sirgo, Caad, Camaara, and Bacadweyn, to Al-Shabaab in a short span of time indicates a concerning trend of Al-Shabaab advances. The latest suicide bombing (Inghimasi) of the busy SYL hotel in the capital Mogadishu pose questions on how the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab breached the security in the green zone citing, both Villa Somalia of PM and Presidential palace are about 600metres from the hotel. The hotel is frequented by influential civilians including lawmakers and government officials. The government’s failure to publicly acknowledge these losses raises questions about transparency and its ability to effectively counter the insurgency. The rapid recapture of strategic towns by Al-Shabaab after the withdrawal of government forces highlights the challenges in maintaining control of territory and the need for improved defensive strategies.

Conclusion

The insurgents, particularly the Mujahideen, have displayed a concerning pattern of increased attacks across various regions in Somalia, with a total of 58 attacks recorded in March 2024 alone. These attacks have targeted government troops, African Union soldiers, and civilians, indicating a broad range of targets. The insurgents have shown a strategic focus on certain areas, such as Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district and the Mudug region, where repeat attacks have occurred. This suggests a deliberate effort to maintain pressure on government forces and expand their control in key regions.

In terms of the types of attacks, insurgents have employed various tactics, including suicide bombings, IED strikes, and ambushes. These attacks are often aimed at causing significant casualties and instilling fear among the population. The use of suicide bombings and IEDs indicates a willingness to engage in high-impact attacks that can cause mass casualties and destruction. Additionally, insurgents have targeted specific individuals, such as government officials and military personnel, in assassination attempts.

The insurgents’ weapons of choice appear to include a range of firearms and explosives, including AK47 rifles, PKM machine guns, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). These weapons allow them to carry out attacks with deadly precision and effectiveness. The capture of weapons, battle vehicles, and prisoners of war (PoWs) in some attacks indicates a strategic focus on acquiring resources to sustain their operations.

Looking ahead, the trend of increased insurgent activity is likely to continue in the coming days and months. The insurgents are expected to maintain their focus on high-impact attacks, particularly during the month of Ramadan, when attacks tend to increase. Security forces will need to remain vigilant and enhance their intelligence gathering and surveillance efforts to counter these threats effectively. Additionally, efforts to engage with local communities, improve border security, and enhance the capacity of security forces will be crucial in mitigating the risk of further attacks.