Kenyan Security Forces Combating Militants, Pastoralist Militias
Violence instigated by militants and pastoralist militias continues to plague northern and southeastern parts of Kenya. In response, the Kenyan government has announced the establishment of new military command centers to address the insecurity. However, these security forces have not yet gained the full trust of the population, hindering their efforts to eliminate armed groups and criminal gangs. Recent incidents of mob violence against on-duty police officers reflect the mixed perceptions of the forces’ role and general engagement among citizens.
The start of April marked the ninth anniversary of the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab militants’ attack at the University of Garissa, which claimed the lives of more than 140 students in 2015. This attack, one of the deadliest in the country—second only to al-Qaeda’s bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998—comes amid increased militant activity, especially in Mandera and Lamu counties. Events in Mandera doubled in March compared to February, while in Lamu, they tripled during the same period. Overall, there were twice as many political violence events involving militants in March and mid-April compared to the same period last year, the highest number since October 2023.
Operations targeting militants’ bases in counties near the Kenya-Somalia border—Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu—account for part of the recorded events, as the Kenyan government continues its efforts to contain Al-Shabaab group’s activities. However, militants’ road ambushes and attacks against Kenya’s security forces and bases make up the majority of events recorded. The militants’ activities in Kenya are linked to Somalia’s counter-insurgency operations, as well as the group’s commitment to targeting Kenyan security forces in response to their deployment to Somalia since 2011.
Kenya-Somalia Cooperation
Kenya and Somalia have recently signed a host of agreements aimed at fostering joint efforts in the fight against terrorism. President William Ruto represented Kenya, while President of the Federal Republic of Somalia was represented by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Kenya reaffirmed its commitment to working with Somalia to further peace and security in the region for shared prosperity. Hosted President Hassan Mohamud of Somalia at State House Kenya, Nairobi and discussed joint initiatives to fight terrorism and general insecurity in the region.
Kenya has also proposed a regional maritime treaty to defuse tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over a deal allowing Ethiopia to set up a naval base and giving it port access in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland, a top Kenyan official said on Thursday. Landlocked Ethiopia agreed on Jan. 1 to lease 20 km (12 miles) of coastline in Somaliland, a part of Somalia which claims independence and has had effective autonomy since 1991, offering possible recognition of Somaliland in exchange. That prompted a defiant response from Somalia and fueled concern the deal could further destabilize the Horn of Africa region.
The treaty Kenya is proposing in consultation with Djibouti and regional bloc IGAD would govern how landlocked states in the region can access ports on commercial terms. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud meeting with his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto in the Kenyan capital are concerted part of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the dispute. If accepted, Nairobi’s solution is accepted, it would offer Ethiopia “stable and predictable access to maritime resources” so it can carry out its business unhindered, while also respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity. According to some diplomatic quarters, Somalia and Ethiopia are considering the proposal, and their leaders should consider meeting to take the process forward as time is of essence, since Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia are using the dispute to portray the government in Mogadishu as being unable to protect Somalia’s sovereignty.
EU and UK Announce Funding Boost for Somalia’s Security Sector
The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) have pledged substantial funds to bolster Somalia’s security sector, aiming to enhance efforts against the ongoing threat posed by Al Shabaab militants.
In a significant move this week, the EU announced the approval of €116 million ($117 million) for stabilization efforts in Somalia through its Political and Security Committee. This funding is earmarked for upgrading the Somali National Army (SNA) and supporting the military component of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis).
The EU’s commitment includes an additional $75 million to supplement resources allocated to Atmis for the period between July 1, 2021, and December 31, 2023. This latest funding follows previous contributions amounting to €270 million ($271 million) under the European Peace Facility (EPF) to support peacekeeping operations in Somalia.
Kenya’s Security Operations Against Pastoralist Militias
One year into its operation against pastoralist militias in the North Rift region, the Kenyan government has achieved mixed results. However, despite the temporary decrease, levels of violence in this county, as well as in Baringo and Samburu counties, increased from September 2023 to March 2024 compared with April to August 2023, following the general trend. To increase the effectiveness of the operation against pastoralist militias, authorities announced the establishment of an additional operation command center for Isiolo, Meru, Laikipia, and Samburu counties at the beginning of April.
When the operation began in February 2023, its command center was established in Chemolingot, Baringo county. Despite ongoing operations against pastoralist militias and the large presence of troops in the region, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the pastoralist-related violence in northern Kenya. In 2023 and so far in 2024, more than 60% of events in the region have directly targeted civilians. Pastoralist militia attacks against civilians constitute more than 50% of events recorded in the past four weeks. The attacks, which included the targeting of students and a medical college lecturer, illustrate that the violence reaches far beyond the grazing fields.
Somalia Economic Development (Oil Exploration)
Somalia is poised for a significant economic development as Turkey prepares to commence oil drilling operations along the country’s extensive coastline starting next year. Mohamed Hashi Abdi ‘Arabey’, the Director General of the Somali Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, confirmed this development in a statement to the BBC Somali Service. Abdi reiterated Turkey’s plan for deep-sea oil drilling beginning in early 2025, specifically in the Barawe and Hobbio districts along Somalia’s coast. Barawe, located approximately 200 km south of Mogadishu, and Hobbio, about 500 km to the northeast, are targeted areas for the seismic works and drilling operations.
This initiative follows a recent agreement between Somalia and Turkey signed in Istanbul, facilitating cooperation in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons. The agreement, signed by Somalia’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Abdirisaaq Omar Mohamed and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, aims to maximize Somalia’s petroleum resources for the benefit of its people. The deal also includes provisions for a broad cooperation framework covering hydrocarbon reserves in Somalia’s exclusive economic zone and undeveloped land exploration.
Despite some concerns raised by legislators and commentators regarding the agreement’s details and potential disadvantages for Somalia, Minister Bayraktar expressed optimism about its benefits. He emphasized that the agreement will lead to joint activities that will bring Somalia’s resources to its people, while also strengthening Turkey’s presence in the Horn of Africa in the field of energy.
This development marks a significant step in Somalia’s economic growth, as it seeks to harness its natural resources, including oil and gas, for the benefit of its population.
