Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of September 11th – September 18th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

African continent over the recent years has recorded a steady growth in Jihadists activities posing threat to individual country’s security and stability. In East Africa, the Al-Qaeda official branch Al-Shabaab continue to operate in its home base, Somalia and sporadically extending its attacks to Kenya’s prefectures bordering Somalia. The group’s persistent activities continue to pose threat and significant burden especially the Horn of Africa, Somalia that is struggling to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

Surge in militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group relentlessly has managed to sustain its militancy in large swathes of central and southern regions. Kenya’s northeastern prefectures which are also occasional targets of Al-Shabaab have remained calm. However, the militant’s zeal and intentions to attack security positions and critical infrastructures in the NEP region cannot be ruled out. The Somali-based Al-Shabaab militants while planting Improvised Explosive Devise (IED) in Fafi area of Garissa county exploded, killing three of them and injuring four others. This is one incident that indicates the militants resolves to target the Kenya security assets besides innocent civilians.

During this period in review, the Islamist militant group claimed at least13 attacks from across the regions of Somalia. No major terror event has so far been reported in Kenya, which is also a target of Al-Shabaab.

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 11^th – September 18^th)

• On September 11^th, Al-Shabaab ambush on SNA troops repulsed near Beled Hawo, southwestern Gedo region. Six militants were killed in the botched attack.
• On September 12^th, Al-Shabaab attempted raid on Arbaow military base at Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle was successfully repulsed by AMISOM security forces following an intense gun battle.
• On September 13^th, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants attacked SNA troops in Dharkeyley district of Mogadishu with IED explosion and followed by indiscriminate firing. Casualties reported from both sides.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked the security forces of the HirShabelle Administration located in Beledweyne town. Casualties reported.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly attempted to stage an ambush raid on AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in Ambareeso, Barawe district of Lower Shabelle. No casualties were reported in the botched raid.
• On September 14^th, about 20 heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants raided the home of Hussein Fidow, the leader of the self-organised anti-Al-Shabaab militias known as Ma’awisley at night and killed him alongside his niece in Beledweyne.

• On September 15^th, Gun Fighting and IED explosions targeting AMISOM troops in Marka, Lower Shabelle reported. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab militants carried out multiple attacks on the outskirts of the town of Marka, the capital of Lower Shabelle. Corresponding local sources indicate that the IED explosions targeted Ugandan troops operating in the area.
• On September 15^th, At least seven people were killed and two others wounded in a roadside IED explosion near Hudur town in Bakol region of Somalia.
• On September 15^th, Al-Shabaab targeted the convoy of the Somali military court chief, Col. Hassan Ali Nor Shute in Gedo region. Initial reports indicate that the militants had planted several IEDs in a major road targeting the military court Judge and his delegation after completing a court session in southern Gedo, southern Somalia. No casualties were reported as the roadside IEDs were successfully removed and defused.
• On September 16^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked Boos Muluq village in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia and brutally killed six people, all Quranic school teachers.
• On September 16^th, Al-Shabaab targeted Somali soldiers in a remote-controlled explosive device (RCIED) in the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the militants detonated the RCIED, striking on a technical that was carrying Somali troops in Tabeelaha area of Mogadishu. Further reports indicate that at least seven soldiers were killed and others wounded in the explosion claimed by the Islamist Al-Shabaab.
• On September 17^th, Al-Shabaab militants attempted attack on AMISOM operated base at Tabto village, Lower Juba region of Somalia was successfully repelled. The militants attempted breach into the military base but they were met with heavy fire prompting them to retreat and fleeing into the thickets.
• On September 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on government official in Jowhar town, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Corresponding local reports indicate that Al-Shabaab militants raided the home of Hashi Bur, an official of HirShabelle administration and assassinated him. This is not the first time the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has targeted officials of HirShabelle administration.

Assessment/Observations

The Islamist Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security in Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa region in general. The surge in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance. The primary goal of attacking local and foreign troops besides other establishments of interests remains unchanged for the Islamist militants in Somalia.

The past week has seen the number of attacks slightly decrease from 22 attacks last week to 13 attacks from across the regions of Somalia. The group battle zones remain persistently in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Hiran, Bakool and in capital Mogadishu. The areas/towns and localities in these regions notably records at least one or two attacks per week.

The use of landmines, roadside IEDs, RCIEDs remains preferred attack types by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, guerilla ambushes targeting both local and foreign troops in Somalia are on the rise. The use of suicide mission is also being employed targeting on military bases and places suspected to host government and allied officials especially in busy restaurants in the capital Mogadishu.

The militants have increased guerilla ambush attacks on troop’s convoys as well as their military bases notably in southern Somalia’s, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba recording repeat attacks taking advantage of the terrain and thickets to successfully conduct their terror operations.

Al-Shabaab continue to exploit continue political rifts and instability to champion it agenda, positioning itself as an alternative government. The Somali-based Al-Shabaab movement, have long exploited the political and security contexts as a safe haven that facilitates the planning of their operations and making use of good communications technology to amplify their operations. The week in review also saw the Al-Shabaab group media wing promote a video of the group distributing livestock (goats, sheep and camels) to locals living in areas under their control, across Somalia. This is a strategic move aimed at luring more locals to support the group’s ideologies with minimum resistance.

The group’s pro-media, (websites and radio) remains prolific and continue to announce claims though as a strategic propaganda warfare, amplifying and exaggerating the number of casualties in many of these recorded attacks.

Conclusion

The Al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa remains effective and lethal despite relentless targeting by local and foreign counterterrorism partners. Though the prominent militant group has suffered immense casualties from multiple large-scale targeting by both domestic and foreign forces, the militant flexibility continues to stand out even in the face of consistent military pressure. Undoubtedly, Al-Shabaab will continues to morph, fragment, and reassemble, rather than disappear, a wake-up call to CT/COIN actors not to relent in this war.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s increased activity and intentions. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.